What is going on in the Global Week Ahead?

Investors await U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9th deadline for trade partners to strike deals on tariffs with a degree of equanimity.

What happens beyond that has the power to stir up more volatility and uncertainty.

The macro data docket for the coming week is light, leaving the focus squarely on tariffs.

So far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with Vietnam.

Two down. Just roughly 180 to go, including the penguin-populated Heard Island.

Next are Reuters' five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) By July 9th, will there be new U.S. trade deals, with other countries? Or not?

With just days to go until the deadline, investors are on edge to see if the United States forges any agreements with trading partners as they seek to avoid higher levies.

Investors have circled this date for months.

Trump paused many of the harshest U.S. tariffs for 90 days after his April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement roiled global markets.

The coming days could bring a number of scenarios.

Some investors have speculated about more delays to allow for talks to continue, but Trump has said he is not thinking of extending the deadline.

He even suggested he could impose a tariff of 30% or 35% on imports from Japan - well above the 24% rate he announced in April.
 

(2) A strong 2025 rally, in major Euro Area stocks, is in focus.

2025 was meant to be European markets' year, as erratic U.S. policymaking and a once-in-a-generation fiscal shift in Germany prompted investors to shift their money into Europe.

That's still the case for the euro, but in equities-land, Wall Street is catching up fast.

The STOXX 600 benchmark is up +6.9% in 2025, just one percentage point above the S&P 500, a narrowing from around a 10-percentage point gap in March.

A storming few months for Big Tech — where Europe cannot compete — is driving much of U.S. performance. Poster child Nvidia (NVDA) hit a market value of $3.92 trillion on Thursday.

U.S.-friendly, or Europe-unfriendly, tariff developments in the coming days could see Wall Street overtake Europe on a year-to-date basis.

Barring one day in April's tariff sell-off, that's not happened since early January.
 

(3) A crypto stablecoin bill move towards U.S. Congressional passage.

With the "One Big Beautiful Bill" done, House Republicans will start working on getting the Senate's landmark stablecoin legislation — known as the GENIUS Act — passed and on to Trump's desk.

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value.

The act could see stablecoins explode from being worth around $250 billion now, to anywhere between $500 billion and $2 trillion in the next few years, depending on who you ask, but it is getting plenty of central bankers — and China — hot under the collar.

One fear, especially in emerging markets, is it will trigger the "dollarization" of their economies, whereas many in the industrialized world warn stablecoins give too much control over money to private firms that experience shows can become very unstable very quickly.
 

(4) A U.S. trade deal with Japan? Stuck in limbo.

It may be a sign you're not "winning" in trade talks with the Trump administration when you start attracting verbal broadsides like "spoiled" and “recalcitrant.”

That's the position of Japan, facing the July 9th deadline before hefty tariffs take effect on its export-dependent economy.

Trump hinted at a "potential" deal in late April, but after multiple rounds of talks, none has emerged.

He said last week he could set a tariff of "30% or 35% or whatever" on Japanese imports, far higher than the rate he announced on April 2nd.

Cars and rice are sticking points. Japan has vowed not to "sacrifice" its critical agriculture sector.

And with autos being Japan's biggest employer and export to the U.S., at nearly 30% of the total, Tokyo may feel it has no choice but to fight for a better deal.
 

(5) U.K. fiscal managers face a possible U.K. bond crisis.

British bondholders are no strangers to crisis.

The British government's decision to scale back an unpopular reform of the welfare system, thereby blowing a 5-billion-pound hole in its budget plans and the visible upset of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves in parliament was all traders needed to unleash a blast of selling, that revived memories of 2022.

Benchmark 10-year gilt yields shot up 21 basis points at one point and sterling fell as investors fretted Reeves' job might be on the line, but reversed course after Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly backed her.

Reeves is running out of wiggle-room and may be forced into tax hikes later this year. British consumers are already under pressure.

The coming week's data on house prices, car sales and economic growth may show more of those cracks.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Let’s take a look at Zacks large-cap Value stocks this week.

The following are #1 Rank short-term picks, with long-term Zacks Value scores of A.

(1) Ahold (ADRNY Quick QuoteADRNY - Free Report) : This is a $42 a share stock with a market cap of $38.2B. It is found in the Consumer Products-Staples industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. provides retail stores which offer food and non-food products primarily in the United States and Europe.

The company operates supermarkets, convenience stores, compact hypers, pick-up points and gasoline stations as well as specialty stores.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V., formerly known as Ahold N.V., is based in Zaandam, Netherlands.

(2) Veolia Environment (VEOEY Quick QuoteVEOEY - Free Report) : This is a $18 a share stock with a market cap of $26.1B. It is found in the Utility-Water Supply industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Veolia Environnement is the only global company to offer the entire range of environmental services in the water, waste management, energy and transportation sectors.

Veolia has been creating global and integrated solutions for public and private sector clients over the world.

The quality of its research, the expertise and synergies developed between its teams, its mastery of the public-private partnership model and our commitment to sustainable development have made us a benchmark player in major environmental matters.

(3) Japan Airlines (JAPSY Quick QuoteJAPSY - Free Report) : This is a $10 a share stock with a market cap of $8.8B. It is found in the Transportation-Airline industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. provides scheduled and non-scheduled air transport, aerial work, and aircraft maintenance services.

The company's operating segment consists of Air Transport and Others.

• The Air Transport segment engages in scheduled and non-scheduled transport operations for cargo and international and domestic passengers
• The Others segment encompasses airline-related business like ticket reservation system, baggage delivery and travel planning services

Japan Airlines Co. is headquartered in Tokyo.
 

Key Global Macro

The macro slate for this midsummer trading week looks light.

On Monday, there is a BRICS Summit.

Japan’s leading (consensus at 105.3, prior at 104.2) and coincident (currently at 116) indicators for May come out.

Euro Area retail sales for May come out. The prior months’ y/y reading was +2.3%.

On Tuesday, the U.S NFIB small business optimism index comes out. I see 98.78 is the consensus. The prior reading was 98.8.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut its policy rate to 3.6% from 3.85%. There will be a policy statement that accompanies this decision.

On Wednesday, Mainland China’s CPI for June comes out. The consensus is for 0.0% y/y. The prior month’s reading was -0.1% y/y.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should keep its policy rate at 3.25%.

On Thursday, U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims come out. The consensus is for a low 235K. The 4-wk average is 241.5K.

U.S Continuing Claims have been moving higher, in a sign of a stalling U.S. labor market. The prior reading there was 1.964M.

On Friday, Canada’s household unemployment rate comes out. The prior reading was a high 7.0%.
 

Conclusion

On July 2nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared his latest S&P500 earnings update—

Here are the key points:

(1) Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +5.0% from the same period last year on +4.0% higher revenues.

While negative revisions to Q2-25 estimates have stabilized in recent weeks, estimates for the period have been under significant pressure relative to other recent periods since the June-quarter got underway.

(2) Q2-25 earnings estimates for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors have come down since the quarter got underway.

Aerospace, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary are the only sectors whose estimates have modestly moved higher, since the start of April.

(3) Q2 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway.

The quarter started with significant pressure on Info Tech sector estimates, but that negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.

(4) In terms of year-over-year growth, three sectors are expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q2: Aerospace (+15.2%), Tech (+12.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+106.1%).

On the negative side, seven sectors are expected to earn less in Q2 relative to the year-earlier period, with double-digit declines at the Energy (-25.7%), Construction (-14.7%), and Autos (-31.2%) sectors.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy a successful week, trading and investing.

Warm regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist