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Q2 earnings season ramps up, as global PMI’s show trade uncertainty effects
The U.S. President's pressure on the Fed Chief stays on the watch list
The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its pre-summer break policy meeting
Japan votes, and
Turkey's central bank meets, against a backdrop of domestic political uncertainty
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Q2-25 S&P500 Earnings Season Ramps Up
U.S. corporate earnings season kicks into high gear with market heavyweights Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) leading the charge.
Q2 results have started flowing in, with major banks expressing optimism about the investment banking outlook for the rest of the year after dealmaking rebounded.
More than one-fifth of S&P500 companies are expected to report in the coming week.
Google parent Alphabet and Tesla are the first of the "Magnificent Seven" mega-caps to report this period, while results are also due from Coca-Cola (KO - Free Report) , IBM (IBM - Free Report) and Philip Morris International (PM - Free Report) .
S&P500 earnings are expected to have climbed +6.5% in the quarter from the year-ago period, according to LSEG IBES data as of Wednesday.
(2) July Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) arrive
July surveys of business activity across the globe may capture some immediate shifts in behavior in both services and manufacturing in response to Trump's new Aug. 1st tariff deadline.
Global factory activity has struggled to remain in expansionary territory in the last year.
Out of 34 of the world's largest economies, 22 have slowing activity — leaving the services sector to do much of the heavy lifting.
But that's also starting to show the strain from the uncertainty for anyone from retailers, to hairdressers and accountants, from President Trump's chaotic tariff policy.
In June, services activity in the United States, the euro zone, China and Germany was slower than in December and well below last June.
Among richer nations, only Japan and Britain saw a year-on-year improvement in service-sector activity last month, and even that was modest at best.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Meets
The ECB is set to pause on Thursday after eight consecutive rate cuts that halved its policy rate to 2.0%.
The threat of a 30% U.S. tariff looms over the euro zone.
But there's little that's certain about the scale of trade restrictions that will end up prevailing, so the ECB has no reason to move the dial yet.
Policymakers will be reluctant to create the sense that they are reacting to a threat.
But they will have to reassess their worst-case scenario from June, which foresaw a lower tariff level.
Also, the focus isn't on Thursday's decision — but what comes next.
Given the scale of uncertainty, traders are unsure. They fully price one more rate cut by year-end, but the timing is up in the air, with a September move seen as a coin toss.
(4) Japan’s Upper House Election Happens
Much is riding on Sunday's Japan upper house election, which could, at least in the near- to mid-term, shape the fiscal and policy trajectory for one of the world's most indebted nations.
Polls suggest Japan's ruling coalition will likely lose its majority, with fiscal hawk Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba potentially stepping down.
Longer-dated Japanese government bond yields have scaled new highs as concerns about the deteriorating fiscal outlook grow, following promises of tax cuts and fiscal largesse by opposition parties.
Their preference for keeping interest rates low also complicates the Bank of Japan's plans to normalize monetary policy.
And while expectations are that trade talks between Tokyo and Washington could make further progress once the election is over, the clock is ticking to an Aug. 1st deadline, when Japan will face 25% tariffs.
(5) On Thursday, Turkey’s Central Bank Likely Returns to Rate Cuts
Turkey's central bank is expected to return to rate cuts on Thursday, back on track after market turmoil following an unprecedented crackdown on the CHP opposition party clouded the monetary policy outlook.
The March detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — seen as President Tayyip Erdogan's most formidable rival — roiled markets, knocked the lira to a record low, saw stocks trading suspended and prompted the central bank to hike overnight rates to 46% — short circuiting an easing cycle that had only begun in December.
A Reuters poll showed expectations for a 250-basis-point cut, with some predicting as much as 350 bps.
But there's some uncertainty over the speed and scale of easing with markets nervous against the backdrop the opposition crackdown recently accelerating.
Central banks in Hungary and Russia also hold rate meetings in the coming week.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I am noting lots of aggressive share price charts across our #1 STRONG BUY list.
Is a top here shortly? Or is there more room to run above that?
(1) Northern Trust (NTRS - Free Report) : This is a $127 a share stock with a market cap of $24.3B. It is found in the Major Regional Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Chicago, Northern Trust Corp. provides services from sovereign wealth funds to the wealthiest families.
The company is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking solutions to corporations, institutions, families, and individuals.
Its main sources of revenue are two client-focused segments — Wealth Management (WM) and Asset Servicing (AS), previously known as the Corporate and Institutional Services segment.
Asset management and related services to WM and AS clients are provided primarily by the Asset Management business.
The AS unit provides asset servicing, asset management and related services to clients, including corporate and public retirement funds, foundations and government funds; commercial banking services to large and mid-sized corporations and financial institutions; and foreign exchange services.
The WM division delivers customized investment management and trust services to high-net-worth individuals and families across 18 states of North America and Washington, DC, as well as offices in London and Guernsey.
In November 2018, Northern Trust acquired Chicago-based BEx LLC — a foreign exchange software solutions provider — for $37.6 million to strengthen its Global Foreign Exchange business
In June 2018, Northern Trust completed the acquisition of Citadel’s Omnium Technology Platform
In 2017, Northern Trust acquired UBS Asset Management's fund administration servicing units in Luxembourg and Switzerland
As of March 31st, 2025, the company had total assets worth $150.3 billion, AUM of $1.61 trillion, and AUC of $16.9 trillion.
(2) International Consolidated Airlines Group (ICAGY - Free Report) : This is a $10 a share stock with a market cap of $23.9B. It is found in the Airline Transportation industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. acts as the holding company for British Airways and Iberia providing scheduled passenger and cargo Airline services with its principal place of business being London.
The company Airways maintains a strategic alliance with several worldwide airlines and, together with its codeshare and franchise partners, flies to more than 300 destinations worldwide.
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. is based in Harmondsworth, United Kingdom.
(3) Geely Automotive (GELYY - Free Report) : This is a $49 a share stock with a market cap of $23.5B. It is found in the Foreign Auto industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. is engaged in automobile manufacturing and its related areas.
It is a fully integrated independent auto firm with auto eco-systems like designing, research and development, production, distribution and servicing.
Geely has its independent R&D in vehicles, engines, transmissions and hybrid technologies
In addition, the company provides moulds for automobile parts and components and automobile services
It also exports sedans
It sells its products through retail distributors and service stations
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong.
Key Global Macro
Entering the week, Japan’s House of Councillor’s election results will be in.
The PMI slate on Thursday could be useful.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy rate decision should be to remain at 3.0%.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell gives a speech.
On Wednesday, U.S. existing home sales for June should be 4.0M, in line with the prior 4.03M number.
On Thursday, the Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI comes out. I see a prior 50.1 reading.
The euro zone HCOB manufacturing PMI also comes out. I see a prior 49.5 reading.
The S&P global manufacturing PMI come out for July. The prior reading was 52.0.
The European Central Bank meeting concludes. The ECB’s main refi rate should remain at 2.15%, while the rate on its deposit facility stays at 2.0%.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are low at 221K. We get a fresh update.
U.S. Continuing Claims are trending higher at 1.956M. It is getting harder to find a job in U.S. labor markets, and influential FOMC member Christopher Waller has spoken up about this.
On Friday, the latest monthly U.S. Durable Goods ex-transportation orders data comes out. The prior reading was +0.5% m/m.
Conclusion
On July 16th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian produced a Q2-25 earnings update.
Here are his key points:
(1) The big banks and brokers have given us a positive start to the Q2-25 earnings season.
These banks have not only reported better-than-expected Q2-25 results.
Management’s commentary on business trends and conditions also paints a favorable and reassuring view of the coming quarters.
(2) For the 38 S&P500 companies that have already reported Q2-25 results, total earnings are up +8.3% from the same period last year, on +4.8% higher revenues.
(3) It is relatively early in the Q2-25 reporting cycle. But the proportion of these 38 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking notably above the 20-quarter average for this group of companies.
(4) For the Finance sector, we now have Q2-25 results from 35.6% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P500 index.
Total earnings for these Finance companies are up +13.2% from the same period last year on +3.4% higher revenues.
All the companies beat EPS estimates and 84.6% beat revenue estimates.
So far, so good.
Enjoy this week in trading and investing.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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Q2 Earnings Season Ramps Up: Global Week Ahead
What’s going on in the Global Week Ahead?
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Q2-25 S&P500 Earnings Season Ramps Up
U.S. corporate earnings season kicks into high gear with market heavyweights Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) leading the charge.
Q2 results have started flowing in, with major banks expressing optimism about the investment banking outlook for the rest of the year after dealmaking rebounded.
More than one-fifth of S&P500 companies are expected to report in the coming week.
Google parent Alphabet and Tesla are the first of the "Magnificent Seven" mega-caps to report this period, while results are also due from Coca-Cola (KO - Free Report) , IBM (IBM - Free Report) and Philip Morris International (PM - Free Report) .
S&P500 earnings are expected to have climbed +6.5% in the quarter from the year-ago period, according to LSEG IBES data as of Wednesday.
(2) July Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) arrive
July surveys of business activity across the globe may capture some immediate shifts in behavior in both services and manufacturing in response to Trump's new Aug. 1st tariff deadline.
Global factory activity has struggled to remain in expansionary territory in the last year.
Out of 34 of the world's largest economies, 22 have slowing activity — leaving the services sector to do much of the heavy lifting.
But that's also starting to show the strain from the uncertainty for anyone from retailers, to hairdressers and accountants, from President Trump's chaotic tariff policy.
In June, services activity in the United States, the euro zone, China and Germany was slower than in December and well below last June.
Among richer nations, only Japan and Britain saw a year-on-year improvement in service-sector activity last month, and even that was modest at best.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Meets
The ECB is set to pause on Thursday after eight consecutive rate cuts that halved its policy rate to 2.0%.
The threat of a 30% U.S. tariff looms over the euro zone.
But there's little that's certain about the scale of trade restrictions that will end up prevailing, so the ECB has no reason to move the dial yet.
Policymakers will be reluctant to create the sense that they are reacting to a threat.
But they will have to reassess their worst-case scenario from June, which foresaw a lower tariff level.
Also, the focus isn't on Thursday's decision — but what comes next.
Given the scale of uncertainty, traders are unsure. They fully price one more rate cut by year-end, but the timing is up in the air, with a September move seen as a coin toss.
(4) Japan’s Upper House Election Happens
Much is riding on Sunday's Japan upper house election, which could, at least in the near- to mid-term, shape the fiscal and policy trajectory for one of the world's most indebted nations.
Polls suggest Japan's ruling coalition will likely lose its majority, with fiscal hawk Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba potentially stepping down.
Longer-dated Japanese government bond yields have scaled new highs as concerns about the deteriorating fiscal outlook grow, following promises of tax cuts and fiscal largesse by opposition parties.
Their preference for keeping interest rates low also complicates the Bank of Japan's plans to normalize monetary policy.
And while expectations are that trade talks between Tokyo and Washington could make further progress once the election is over, the clock is ticking to an Aug. 1st deadline, when Japan will face 25% tariffs.
(5) On Thursday, Turkey’s Central Bank Likely Returns to Rate Cuts
Turkey's central bank is expected to return to rate cuts on Thursday, back on track after market turmoil following an unprecedented crackdown on the CHP opposition party clouded the monetary policy outlook.
The March detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — seen as President Tayyip Erdogan's most formidable rival — roiled markets, knocked the lira to a record low, saw stocks trading suspended and prompted the central bank to hike overnight rates to 46% — short circuiting an easing cycle that had only begun in December.
A Reuters poll showed expectations for a 250-basis-point cut, with some predicting as much as 350 bps.
But there's some uncertainty over the speed and scale of easing with markets nervous against the backdrop the opposition crackdown recently accelerating.
Central banks in Hungary and Russia also hold rate meetings in the coming week.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I am noting lots of aggressive share price charts across our #1 STRONG BUY list.
Is a top here shortly? Or is there more room to run above that?
(1) Northern Trust (NTRS - Free Report) : This is a $127 a share stock with a market cap of $24.3B. It is found in the Major Regional Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Chicago, Northern Trust Corp. provides services from sovereign wealth funds to the wealthiest families.
The company is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking solutions to corporations, institutions, families, and individuals.
Its main sources of revenue are two client-focused segments — Wealth Management (WM) and Asset Servicing (AS), previously known as the Corporate and Institutional Services segment.
Asset management and related services to WM and AS clients are provided primarily by the Asset Management business.
The AS unit provides asset servicing, asset management and related services to clients, including corporate and public retirement funds, foundations and government funds; commercial banking services to large and mid-sized corporations and financial institutions; and foreign exchange services.
The WM division delivers customized investment management and trust services to high-net-worth individuals and families across 18 states of North America and Washington, DC, as well as offices in London and Guernsey.
As of March 31st, 2025, the company had total assets worth $150.3 billion, AUM of $1.61 trillion, and AUC of $16.9 trillion.
(2) International Consolidated Airlines Group (ICAGY - Free Report) : This is a $10 a share stock with a market cap of $23.9B. It is found in the Airline Transportation industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. acts as the holding company for British Airways and Iberia providing scheduled passenger and cargo Airline services with its principal place of business being London.
The company Airways maintains a strategic alliance with several worldwide airlines and, together with its codeshare and franchise partners, flies to more than 300 destinations worldwide.
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. is based in Harmondsworth, United Kingdom.
(3) Geely Automotive (GELYY - Free Report) : This is a $49 a share stock with a market cap of $23.5B. It is found in the Foreign Auto industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. is engaged in automobile manufacturing and its related areas.
It is a fully integrated independent auto firm with auto eco-systems like designing, research and development, production, distribution and servicing.
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong.
Key Global Macro
Entering the week, Japan’s House of Councillor’s election results will be in.
The PMI slate on Thursday could be useful.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy rate decision should be to remain at 3.0%.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell gives a speech.
On Wednesday, U.S. existing home sales for June should be 4.0M, in line with the prior 4.03M number.
On Thursday, the Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI comes out. I see a prior 50.1 reading.
The euro zone HCOB manufacturing PMI also comes out. I see a prior 49.5 reading.
The S&P global manufacturing PMI come out for July. The prior reading was 52.0.
The European Central Bank meeting concludes. The ECB’s main refi rate should remain at 2.15%, while the rate on its deposit facility stays at 2.0%.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are low at 221K. We get a fresh update.
U.S. Continuing Claims are trending higher at 1.956M. It is getting harder to find a job in U.S. labor markets, and influential FOMC member Christopher Waller has spoken up about this.
On Friday, the latest monthly U.S. Durable Goods ex-transportation orders data comes out. The prior reading was +0.5% m/m.
Conclusion
On July 16th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian produced a Q2-25 earnings update.
Here are his key points:
(1) The big banks and brokers have given us a positive start to the Q2-25 earnings season.
These banks have not only reported better-than-expected Q2-25 results.
Management’s commentary on business trends and conditions also paints a favorable and reassuring view of the coming quarters.
(2) For the 38 S&P500 companies that have already reported Q2-25 results, total earnings are up +8.3% from the same period last year, on +4.8% higher revenues.
84.2% beat EPS estimates. 81.6% beat revenue estimates.
(3) It is relatively early in the Q2-25 reporting cycle. But the proportion of these 38 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking notably above the 20-quarter average for this group of companies.
(4) For the Finance sector, we now have Q2-25 results from 35.6% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P500 index.
Total earnings for these Finance companies are up +13.2% from the same period last year on +3.4% higher revenues.
All the companies beat EPS estimates and 84.6% beat revenue estimates.
So far, so good.
Enjoy this week in trading and investing.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist