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Home Depot (HD) Q1 Earnings: Stock Likely to Beat Again?

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We expect home improvement retailer, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2017 results on May 16.

Home Depot outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 4.4% in the trailing four quarters, with a beat in each quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for both, the first-quarter and fiscal 2017 have witnessed an uptrend over the last 30 days. Further, the current Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61 per share for the first quarter reflects a year-over-year increase of 11.7%. Moreover, analysts polled by Zacks expect revenues of $23.7 billion, up nearly 4.1% from the year-ago quarter. So, let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Home Depot, Inc. (The) Price and EPS Surprise
 

Home Depot, Inc. (The) Price and EPS Surprise | Home Depot, Inc. (The) Quote

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Home Depot may beat earnings because it has the right combination of the two key components.

Zacks ESP: Home Depot currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.24%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is $1.63, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged lower at $1.61. A favorable Zacks ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Home Depot currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of Home Depot’s Zacks Rank #2 and a positive ESP make us reasonably confident of a positive earnings beat.

What's Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Home Depot’s shares jumped 13.4% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks categorized Retail – Wholesale sector’s growth of 9%.



The company has been riding on constant gains from improving customer experience, solid execution and housing market recovery. Also, these factors helped the company to post better-than-expected bottom-line results in the last quarter, retaining its four-year long trend of beating earnings estimates. Further, Home Depot remains focused on developing merchandising tools and increasing investment in e-commerce to boost top-line growth and enhance market share.

Backed by these factors and strong earnings history, Home Depot provided a robust guidance for fiscal 2017 and updated its capital allocation strategy, which called for a higher long-term dividend payout target of 55% of net earnings. These factors usher in confidence about the company’s ongoing prospects thus making us optimistic about its upcoming results.

Other Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 18, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 24, currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.83% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 25, currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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