Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Trane Technologies?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Trane Technologies (TT Quick QuoteTT - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) six days from its next quarterly earnings release on July 30, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.79 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $3.79 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.76 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Trane Technologies has an Earnings ESP of +0.54%. Investors should also know that TT is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TT is part of a big group of Construction stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Quanta Services (PWR Quick QuotePWR - Free Report) as well.

Quanta Services is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on July 31, 2025. PWR's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.44 a share seven days from its next earnings release.

Quanta Services' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.34% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.43.

TT and PWR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>