The retail sector is in focus with big retailers like Walmart (WMT Quick QuoteWMT - Free Report) , Home Depot (HD Quick QuoteHD - Free Report) , Lowe’s (LOW Quick QuoteLOW - Free Report) and Target (TGT Quick QuoteTGT - Free Report) due to report earnings this week. With tariffs, inflation, and shifting consumer habits at the forefront, investors will be watching closely to see how these companies are navigating a still-uncertain spending environment.

Given this, traditional retail ETFs are in focus. SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT Quick QuoteXRT - Free Report) and VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH Quick QuoteRTH - Free Report) have gained nearly 12.7% and 5.9%, respectively, over the past three months. 

Earlier this earnings season, Amazon (AMZN Quick QuoteAMZN - Free Report) CEO Andy Jassy said the e-commerce giant wasn’t seeing any meaningful pullback in demand or sharp price increases, while Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach noted that consumer spending remained resilient. Yet, the latest government data painted a more cautious picture as retail sales in July rose by less than expected, raising concerns that household budgets may be starting to feel the pinch.

Some companies, particularly in the fast-casual dining space, have already pointed to signs of strain as customers trade down or cut back on discretionary purchases. That mixed backdrop makes the upcoming reports from major retailers even more significant.

So far, 21 out of 32 retailers on the S&P 500 Index have already reported. Earnings of these companies are up 20.5% from the same period last year on 8.7% higher revenues, with 81% beating both EPS and revenue estimates. Overall, the retail sector is expected to report earnings growth of 12.6% on 5.6% revenue growth.

What Our Model Unveils for Retailer Earnings

According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. 

Walmart

Walmart has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company saw a positive earnings estimate revision of a penny over the past seven days for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Walmart delivered an average four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.27%. Walmart is scheduled to report on Aug. 21, before market open (see: all the Consumer Discretionary ETFs here).

As the nation’s largest retailer, Walmart’s earnings will serve as a barometer for consumer health, especially in groceries and essentials, where the company has leaned into value offerings.

Home Depot & Lowe’s

Home Depot has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company saw no earnings estimate revision over the past 30 days for the to-be-reported quarter. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 2.21% in the last four quarters. Home Depot is scheduled to report on Aug. 19, before market open.

Lowe’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company saw a negative earnings estimate revision of a penny for the to-be-reported quarter over the past 30 days. It delivered an earnings surprise of 3.22%, on average, in the last four quarters. LOW is slated to report earnings on Aug. 20. 

With housing affordability under pressure and mortgage rates elevated, demand for big-ticket home improvement projects has softened. The focus will be on whether professional contractors and do-it-yourself customers are holding up or pulling back.

Target

Target has an Earnings ESP of -3.05% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company saw a negative earnings estimate revision of a couple of cents over the past seven days for the to-be-reported quarter. It delivered a negative earnings surprise of 3.22% on average for the last four quarters. Target will report earnings on Aug. 20, before the opening bell. 

Target has been navigating a choppy retail landscape, balancing discretionary categories like apparel and home goods against stable grocery demand. Investors will look for updates on cost management and whether promotions are driving traffic.

ETFs in Focus

SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT Quick QuoteXRT - Free Report)

SPDR S&P Retail ETF tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which provides exposure across large, mid and small-cap stocks. It holds 76 well-diversified stocks in its basket, with none making up for more than a 2% share. Additionally, SPDR S&P Retail ETF is well spread across various industries with a double-digit allocation each in specialty retail, apparel retail, automotive retail and broadline retail (read: Sector ETFs to Lose/Win From Oil Price Rebound).

SPDR S&P Retail ETF is the largest and most popular in the retail space, with AUM of $429.2 million and an average trading volume of 6.1 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #4 (Sell) with a Medium risk outlook.

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH Quick QuoteRTH - Free Report)

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF provides exposure to the 26 largest retail firms by tracking the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which measures the performance of the companies involved in retail distribution, wholesalers, online, direct mail and TV retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers and food and other staples retailers. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF is highly concentrated on Amazon with nearly 20.6% exposure, while the other firms hold no more than 9.1% share. 
    
VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has amassed $255.5 million in its asset base and charges 35 bps in annual fees. It trades in a lower volume of 4,000 shares a day on average. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.