It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CME Group (CME Quick QuoteCME - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CME due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for CME Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

CME Q2 Earnings, Revenues Beat Estimates on Higher Trading Volume

CME Group reported second-quarter 2025 operating income of $2.96 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.7%. The bottom line improved 15.6% year over year. Quarterly results benefited from improving revenues, driven by higher clearing and transaction fees as well as market data and information services fees.  Increased volatility drove volumes.

Performance in Detail

CME Group’s revenues of $1.7 billion increased 10.4% year over year. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to higher clearing and transaction fees (up 11% year over year) and market data and information services (up 13.2% year over year). The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%. Total expenses rose 5.8% year over year to $562.7 million, attributable to higher compensation and benefits, technology, professional fees and outside services and licensing and other fee agreements. It exceeded our estimate of $513.7 million.

Operating income increased 12.9% from the prior-year quarter to $1.1 billion. Our estimate was $1.1 billion. Given heightened economic uncertainty, average daily volume (“ADV”) was a record 30.2 million contracts, up 16% year over year. ADV increased across all product lines. The total average rate per contract was 69 cents.

Financial Update

As of June 30, 2025, CME Group had $1.5 billion of cash and marketable securities, down 30.1% from the 2024-end level. As of June 30, 2025, long-term debt was $3.4 billion, up 27.7% from 2024-end. As of June 30, 2025, CME had shareholders' equity worth $27.7 billion, up 4.7% from the end of 2024.

Capital Deployment

CME Group declared dividends of $3 billion in the first half of 2025. It has returned over $29.1 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends since the implementation of its variable dividend policy in early 2012.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, CME has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, CME has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.