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What Next for U.S. Retail ETFs?

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Amid the looming tariff uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns and weakening consumer confidence, U.S. retailers face increased volatility.

According to an article on Yahoo Finance, the recent federal appeals court’s ruling, which overturned the Trump administration’s tariff hikes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), could pose major challenges for retailers.

The court order could provide consumers and retailers with the much-needed relief. However, the likelihood of further legal hurdles keeps the situation uncertain.

Tariffs Continue to Threaten Retail Stability

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), as quoted on Yahoo Finance, current legal disputes over tariffs are creating significant uncertainty for retailers. NRF's Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold, stated that tariffs have resulted in increased retailer costs, which may eventually be passed on to consumers, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

According to another Yahoo Finance article, retailers, including Walmart, Target and Best Buy, indicate that tariff-related cost increases are beginning to affect groceries, home goods and electronics.

Caution Creeps Into Consumer Confidence

According to the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, released mid-August, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 in August from July’s 61.7, as quoted on Reuters. This marks a decline of 14.3% from a year ago, per the University’s survey.

Per the Conference Board, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.4 in August from July’s 98.7, marking a decline of 1.3 points. The Present Situation Index also witnessed a similar trend, falling 1.6 points to 131.2.

According to findings by McKinsey, consumers are keeping a cautious approach toward the holiday season, with many consumers planning to curb discretionary spending. McKinsey also highlights a steady decline in consumer optimism since last November, stating that rising prices and persistent inflation are the key concerns for shoppers.

McKinsey further noted a sharp drop in discretionary spending plans across income groups, reflecting a broader trend of caution and uncertainty in consumer behavior.

Inflation Fears Linger

In mid-August, Reuters reported that inflation expectations are rising, with consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations jumping to 4.9% in August from 4.5% in the previous month. The long-term expectations increased to 3.9% from 3.4%.

The Conference Board’s consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 6.2% in August from 5.7% in July. Growing concerns about rising inflation could make investors risk-averse and lead them to cut back on discretionary spending.

ETFs to Consider

Investors should keep an eye on funds, such as SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report) , VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) , Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY - Free Report) and ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN - Free Report) .

With a one-month average trading volume of 5.69 million shares, XRT is the most liquid option, ideal for active trading strategies.

XRT has also gathered an asset base of $555 million, the largest among the other options. Performance-wise, ONLN has outpaced the other mentioned funds, gaining 31.17% over the past three months and 34.02% over the past year. However, since Aug. 22, the funds have declined slightly.

Regarding annual fees, XRT and RTH are the cheapest options, charging 0.35%, making them more suitable for long-term investing.

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