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We have lots of economic data out prior to today’s opening bell. Chief among them is the latest “Jobs Week” report, private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) . A headline of +54K new private-sector jobs filled in August missed expectations by 20K. Goods-producing jobs grew by +13K (not out of the ordinary) and Services was up by a (relatively weak) +42K. Friday’s BLS non-farm payroll estimate is +75K.
This headline roughly tracks the trailing 4-month average in private-sector jobs growth: +55K. Compare this to the previous 4-month average of +102K — almost double. Count this as another metric demonstrating a notable slowdown in employment, albeit solely in the private sector. But it’s hard to imagine government jobs having picked up this slack in August. I suppose we’ll find out Friday in the BLS Employment Situation report.
In recent months, large corporations (over 500 employees) had been leading growth in monthly ADP employment numbers. At +18K, it’s a pretty weak showing for big businesses. Medium-sized companies (between 50-499 employees) brought +25K new private-sector jobs, while small firms made up the remainder +12K.
By industry, Leisure/Hospitality jumped back into the top spot: +50K new private-sector jobs filled last month. Distant second is Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services +15K. The biggest declines in today’s ADP report came from Trade/Transportation/Utilities (TTU) at -17K and Education/Healthcare at -12K.
It’s tempting to assign some of what we know about the current economic environment to these job losses in segments usually at or near the top of the employment contribution list. The TTU slide appears directly related to our new tariff realities, slowing down shipments as fewer goods are imported, while Education/Healthcare — particularly the Healthcare side — is an industry largely populated by immigrants.
Job Stayers averaged +4.4% earnings gains in August in this report. Job Changers, at +7.1%, illustrates a continued narrowing of the difference in pay between staying or leaving your job for a new one. This speaks to a relatively stagnant labor market, with very little movement overall.
Weekly Jobless Claims Mixed, Remain In-Range
This being a normal Thursday morning, Weekly Jobless Claims are also hitting the tape ahead of today’s open. Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K from an expected +230K and an unrevised +229K the previous month. This is the highest single-month tally since June, although we have remained below +250K now for 12 straight weeks.
Also a model of consistency, Continuing Jobless Claims, sank to 1.940 million from a downwardly revised 1.944 million the prior week. Quite remarkably, without ever touching the psychologically important 2 million longer-term jobless claims per month, we’re now at 13 straight weeks — a full calendar quarter — at or above 1.94 million.
Other Economic Prints This Morning: Productivity, Labor Costs, Trade Deficit
The revised Q2 Productivity (labor productivity per hour worked) results this morning showed a big jump to a seasonally adjusted, annualized +3.3% from +2.8% reported in the previous print. This is the strongest quarterly productivity reported since Q3 2024. Unit Labor Costs for the quarter, meanwhile, came in lower than expected: +1.0%. Strong productivity and lower labor costs? Sounds like a downright “Goldilocks” quarter.
The U.S. Trade Deficit reached -$78.3 billion for July this morning, though a deeper cut from the previous month’s downwardly revised -$59.1 billion. Thankfully, we remain off the pre-tariff all-time lows of -$128.8 billion in January, -$120.3 billion in February and an all-time low -$136.4 billion in March of this year.
Image: Bigstock
August ADP Weaker at +54K, & More
Thursday, September 4, 2025
We have lots of economic data out prior to today’s opening bell. Chief among them is the latest “Jobs Week” report, private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) . A headline of +54K new private-sector jobs filled in August missed expectations by 20K. Goods-producing jobs grew by +13K (not out of the ordinary) and Services was up by a (relatively weak) +42K. Friday’s BLS non-farm payroll estimate is +75K.
This headline roughly tracks the trailing 4-month average in private-sector jobs growth: +55K. Compare this to the previous 4-month average of +102K — almost double. Count this as another metric demonstrating a notable slowdown in employment, albeit solely in the private sector. But it’s hard to imagine government jobs having picked up this slack in August. I suppose we’ll find out Friday in the BLS Employment Situation report.
In recent months, large corporations (over 500 employees) had been leading growth in monthly ADP employment numbers. At +18K, it’s a pretty weak showing for big businesses. Medium-sized companies (between 50-499 employees) brought +25K new private-sector jobs, while small firms made up the remainder +12K.
By industry, Leisure/Hospitality jumped back into the top spot: +50K new private-sector jobs filled last month. Distant second is Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services +15K. The biggest declines in today’s ADP report came from Trade/Transportation/Utilities (TTU) at -17K and Education/Healthcare at -12K.
It’s tempting to assign some of what we know about the current economic environment to these job losses in segments usually at or near the top of the employment contribution list. The TTU slide appears directly related to our new tariff realities, slowing down shipments as fewer goods are imported, while Education/Healthcare — particularly the Healthcare side — is an industry largely populated by immigrants.
Job Stayers averaged +4.4% earnings gains in August in this report. Job Changers, at +7.1%, illustrates a continued narrowing of the difference in pay between staying or leaving your job for a new one. This speaks to a relatively stagnant labor market, with very little movement overall.
Weekly Jobless Claims Mixed, Remain In-Range
This being a normal Thursday morning, Weekly Jobless Claims are also hitting the tape ahead of today’s open. Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K from an expected +230K and an unrevised +229K the previous month. This is the highest single-month tally since June, although we have remained below +250K now for 12 straight weeks.
Also a model of consistency, Continuing Jobless Claims, sank to 1.940 million from a downwardly revised 1.944 million the prior week. Quite remarkably, without ever touching the psychologically important 2 million longer-term jobless claims per month, we’re now at 13 straight weeks — a full calendar quarter — at or above 1.94 million.
Other Economic Prints This Morning: Productivity, Labor Costs, Trade Deficit
The revised Q2 Productivity (labor productivity per hour worked) results this morning showed a big jump to a seasonally adjusted, annualized +3.3% from +2.8% reported in the previous print. This is the strongest quarterly productivity reported since Q3 2024. Unit Labor Costs for the quarter, meanwhile, came in lower than expected: +1.0%. Strong productivity and lower labor costs? Sounds like a downright “Goldilocks” quarter.
The U.S. Trade Deficit reached -$78.3 billion for July this morning, though a deeper cut from the previous month’s downwardly revised -$59.1 billion. Thankfully, we remain off the pre-tariff all-time lows of -$128.8 billion in January, -$120.3 billion in February and an all-time low -$136.4 billion in March of this year.
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