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CPI and PPI Data to Determine Inflation Levels in August
More Earnings on Deck: Oracle, Adobe, Kroger & More
Monday, September 8, 2025
We’re setting up for a new trading week with some matters of importance this morning, with major indexes in the green: the Dow is +67 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +12 and the Nasdaq +79 points. Bond yields continue to gradually shrink before our eyes: the 10-year is now down to +4.07% and the 2-year is +3.49%.
Especially pleased with conditions this morning are investors of Robinhood (HOOD - Free Report) and Applovin (APP - Free Report) , which it has been announced will soon enter the S&P 500 — far increasing their exposure to a wider spectrum of investor. HOOD is +8% at this hour, while APP is +9%.
What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week
Likely the most impactful numbers reporting this week will be the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), the wholesale and retail levels of inflation for the month of August — on Wednesday (PPI) and Thursday (CPI). Both have begun to warm up since tariff policies started taking hold this spring and summer.
Year-over-year CPI, aka the Inflation Rate, is expected to come up 20 basis points (bps) to +2.9% from the +2.7% reported over the previous two months. This level was in between the near-term high +3.0% in January and +2.3% in April. That April print was the closest we had come since the Great Reopening to the Fed’s optimum +2% inflation rate.
Core CPI last time around was +3.1%, back to where we were in February of this year and above the March, April, May level of +2.8%, which was the lowest print since March 2021. For PPI, much the same: +3.3% last time and +2.8% on core — springing up from recent lows on both metrics.
These reports are the most serious threat to the current market narrative that the Fed is finally going to start cutting interest rates again a week from Wednesday. But even at 3-handles on both CPI and PPI releases, we don’t feel they would be inflationary enough to thwart the Fed’s duty to the other side of its dual-mandate: full employment.
As we saw in last week’s Jobs Report, we’re now sub-100K new jobs per month for the first time since the Covid pandemic. We also saw the first month of negative jobs growth since the first Trump administration, at -13K in June of this year. Needless to say, none of this is in keeping with a robust job market, which we’d been enjoying over the past few years. Currently, this is Job One for the Fed in taking action via monetary policy.
Also, while Q2 Earnings Season is basically in the books — and better than expected overall, even if guidance looks to be softening in a general sense — we still get to hear from a few key companies this week. Among them are Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) on Tuesday after the close, and Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) , Kroger (KR - Free Report) and RH (RH - Free Report) on Thursday.
Image: Bigstock
CPI, PPI This Week - Also ORCL, ADBE Earnings
Key Takeaways
Monday, September 8, 2025
We’re setting up for a new trading week with some matters of importance this morning, with major indexes in the green: the Dow is +67 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +12 and the Nasdaq +79 points. Bond yields continue to gradually shrink before our eyes: the 10-year is now down to +4.07% and the 2-year is +3.49%.
Especially pleased with conditions this morning are investors of Robinhood (HOOD - Free Report) and Applovin (APP - Free Report) , which it has been announced will soon enter the S&P 500 — far increasing their exposure to a wider spectrum of investor. HOOD is +8% at this hour, while APP is +9%.
What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week
Likely the most impactful numbers reporting this week will be the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), the wholesale and retail levels of inflation for the month of August — on Wednesday (PPI) and Thursday (CPI). Both have begun to warm up since tariff policies started taking hold this spring and summer.
Year-over-year CPI, aka the Inflation Rate, is expected to come up 20 basis points (bps) to +2.9% from the +2.7% reported over the previous two months. This level was in between the near-term high +3.0% in January and +2.3% in April. That April print was the closest we had come since the Great Reopening to the Fed’s optimum +2% inflation rate.
Core CPI last time around was +3.1%, back to where we were in February of this year and above the March, April, May level of +2.8%, which was the lowest print since March 2021. For PPI, much the same: +3.3% last time and +2.8% on core — springing up from recent lows on both metrics.
These reports are the most serious threat to the current market narrative that the Fed is finally going to start cutting interest rates again a week from Wednesday. But even at 3-handles on both CPI and PPI releases, we don’t feel they would be inflationary enough to thwart the Fed’s duty to the other side of its dual-mandate: full employment.
As we saw in last week’s Jobs Report, we’re now sub-100K new jobs per month for the first time since the Covid pandemic. We also saw the first month of negative jobs growth since the first Trump administration, at -13K in June of this year. Needless to say, none of this is in keeping with a robust job market, which we’d been enjoying over the past few years. Currently, this is Job One for the Fed in taking action via monetary policy.
Also, while Q2 Earnings Season is basically in the books — and better than expected overall, even if guidance looks to be softening in a general sense — we still get to hear from a few key companies this week. Among them are Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) on Tuesday after the close, and Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) , Kroger (KR - Free Report) and RH (RH - Free Report) on Thursday.
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