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Pre-markets Fight Toward the Green with Gov't Shutdown Top of Mind
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Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Pre-market futures are currently in the red but off their early-morning lows. Conditions appear to be ripe for a government shutdown, as party politics resist effectively working across the aisle on either side. A budget resolution with the sticking point of healthcare funding for the ACA is at the center of this fracture, with the Democrats demanding to negotiate for this funding to continue, and Republicans pointing to the Big Beautiful Bill to be passed as is.
The last government shutdown came over the holidays in December 2018 to January 2019, in a dispute over funding for the border wall then-President Trump demanded. This shutdown lasted 35 days, and was so far the longest in American history. Prior to this, a 16-day shutdown in 2013 pivoted on the unwillingness to fund ACA under President Obama. The only material government shutdown prior to this came in two parts between November 1995 and January 1996, where a Republican-led Congress challenged then-President Bill Clinton over budget funding issues.
If we look at a chart of the S&P 500, however, we don’t see much turbulence in stock trading reflected on these government shutdowns. That said, trading as we were at all-time index highs as recently as yesterday, we understand why we aren’t seeing trading pushing higher into the green right now. The Dow is -45 points at the hour, the S&P 500 -3 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 -5. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has pushed into positive territory just now, +6 points.
Case Shiller Home Price Curve Flattening
The well-respected Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July is out this morning, coming in a tad cooler than a consensus of analysts were expecting: +1.8% on the 20-city survey, down from the slightly upwardly revised +2.2% the prior month. At this time a year ago, we were up at +2.7% in home prices. So we see this price curve flattening notably.
Leaders in home price continue as they have for the past few months: New York City remains expensive, +6.4% year over year, followed by +6.2% in Chicago and +4.5% for Cleveland. Recall these were some of the very places losing residents at the heart of the Covid pandemic half a decade ago. Those cities losing home value were once again Tampa -2.8%, San Francisco -1.9% and Miami -1.3%.
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
After the open, we’ll see a few key pieces of economic data. Among them will be the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), which is expected to increase slightly to 43.8 from 41.5 the prior month, and Consumer Confidence, which analysts project will decline a smidge to 96.0 from 97.4. Both metrics will post results for September.
The biggest of these will be the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August. It’s the first monthly print on the domestic labor market for this week, and may be the only one if the U.S. Congress cannot manage to keep the federal government open ahead of Friday’s BLS jobs report. The forecast is for JOLTS to come down to September 2024 lows of 7.1 million job openings in the U.S.
The Job Quits rate has remained steady at +2.0% for four straight months, indicating a reluctance in the American workforce to leave their current employer. We’ll also see in tomorrow’s private-sector payroll report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) whether the curve between Job Stayer pay and Job Changer pay continues to narrow. This is the general trajectory in previous months, again indicating the reluctance for employees to shake up their work situations.
As we reported in this space yesterday afternoon, Nike (NKE - Free Report) reports fiscal Q1 earnings after today’s close. This company is a solid gauge for affects of tariff policy on goods-producing businesses, and as such is expected to bring in -60% earnings growth year over year and -4.95% on revenues from a year ago. Double-digit negative earnings levels are expected for both new quarter and the current fiscal year. That said, Nike is riding eight-straight quarters of outperforming earnings expectations. Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>
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Pre-markets Fight Toward the Green with Gov't Shutdown Top of Mind
Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Pre-market futures are currently in the red but off their early-morning lows. Conditions appear to be ripe for a government shutdown, as party politics resist effectively working across the aisle on either side. A budget resolution with the sticking point of healthcare funding for the ACA is at the center of this fracture, with the Democrats demanding to negotiate for this funding to continue, and Republicans pointing to the Big Beautiful Bill to be passed as is.
The last government shutdown came over the holidays in December 2018 to January 2019, in a dispute over funding for the border wall then-President Trump demanded. This shutdown lasted 35 days, and was so far the longest in American history. Prior to this, a 16-day shutdown in 2013 pivoted on the unwillingness to fund ACA under President Obama. The only material government shutdown prior to this came in two parts between November 1995 and January 1996, where a Republican-led Congress challenged then-President Bill Clinton over budget funding issues.
If we look at a chart of the S&P 500, however, we don’t see much turbulence in stock trading reflected on these government shutdowns. That said, trading as we were at all-time index highs as recently as yesterday, we understand why we aren’t seeing trading pushing higher into the green right now. The Dow is -45 points at the hour, the S&P 500 -3 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 -5. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has pushed into positive territory just now, +6 points.
Case Shiller Home Price Curve Flattening
The well-respected Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July is out this morning, coming in a tad cooler than a consensus of analysts were expecting: +1.8% on the 20-city survey, down from the slightly upwardly revised +2.2% the prior month. At this time a year ago, we were up at +2.7% in home prices. So we see this price curve flattening notably.
Leaders in home price continue as they have for the past few months: New York City remains expensive, +6.4% year over year, followed by +6.2% in Chicago and +4.5% for Cleveland. Recall these were some of the very places losing residents at the heart of the Covid pandemic half a decade ago. Those cities losing home value were once again Tampa -2.8%, San Francisco -1.9% and Miami -1.3%.
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
After the open, we’ll see a few key pieces of economic data. Among them will be the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), which is expected to increase slightly to 43.8 from 41.5 the prior month, and Consumer Confidence, which analysts project will decline a smidge to 96.0 from 97.4. Both metrics will post results for September.
The biggest of these will be the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August. It’s the first monthly print on the domestic labor market for this week, and may be the only one if the U.S. Congress cannot manage to keep the federal government open ahead of Friday’s BLS jobs report. The forecast is for JOLTS to come down to September 2024 lows of 7.1 million job openings in the U.S.
The Job Quits rate has remained steady at +2.0% for four straight months, indicating a reluctance in the American workforce to leave their current employer. We’ll also see in tomorrow’s private-sector payroll report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) whether the curve between Job Stayer pay and Job Changer pay continues to narrow. This is the general trajectory in previous months, again indicating the reluctance for employees to shake up their work situations.
As we reported in this space yesterday afternoon, Nike (NKE - Free Report) reports fiscal Q1 earnings after today’s close. This company is a solid gauge for affects of tariff policy on goods-producing businesses, and as such is expected to bring in -60% earnings growth year over year and -4.95% on revenues from a year ago. Double-digit negative earnings levels are expected for both new quarter and the current fiscal year. That said, Nike is riding eight-straight quarters of outperforming earnings expectations.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>