What’s happening across this Global Week Ahead?

The U.S. government has shut down. But that hasn't prevented stocks from hitting more record highs, fully confident that bullish rate cuts will keep momentum going.

The one hitch is a complete lack of visibility, when it comes to what is actually happening in the economy right now.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) A Shutdown Means No U.S. Data. Little Comes Out This Week, Anyway

Next week's U.S. data calendar is light, so further market disruption from the government shutdown should be minimal, and the U.S. Treasury will hold a normal auction of notes and bonds.

The market will likely make do without Tuesday's U.S. International Trade report, and Friday's private University of Michigan preliminary October sentiment index.

The Treasury sells $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion of the 10-year note Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. The bond market can't yet compute possible fiscal implications of an indefinite furloughing of federal workers. But with the benchmark 10-year yield above 4%, demand could remain solid.

An early taste of third-quarter results comes with Delta Airlines DAL and Levi Strauss LEVI, among others on Thursday, before the earnings parade kicks off with Wall Street's biggest banks the following week.
 

(2) The U.S. Dollar Is Down -10% This Year. What Happens from Here?

The dollar starts this final quarter of 2025 in fairly decent shape. Having fallen in the first two quarters, as U.S. exceptionalism came under fire, the greenback ended Q3 with a 1% gain against major rivals.

It's still down -10% so far this year, although its stabilization has brought some calm to the almost $10 trillion-a-day FX markets.

On the plus side, immediate threats to Federal Reserve independence — a potential source of dollar stress — have abated for now. On the negative, labor market weakness adds to Fed rate-cuts bets.

Dollar bears may not hibernate for long — especially if a U.S. government shutdown is lengthy. The yen, in particular, looks favorable — say FX experts — while the euro could still hit that $1.20 milestone it came so close to last month.
 

(3) Global Pharma Stocks Finally Get a Bid

Battered global pharma stocks have got a boost from the deal between Pfizer (PFE Quick QuotePFE - Free Report) and the U.S. to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid program in exchange for tariff relief.

President Trump had taken aim at the sector over high U.S. medicine prices, sending drugmaker shares to multi-decade lows. But investors now bet the more benign agreement will open the door for more deals.

U.S. healthcare stocks (SPXHC), are up +5.6% this week, set for their biggest weekly gain in over three years, while European peers are up +7.6%, on track for their best week since 2008 (SXDP).

Now it's time to wait to see if these deals materialize and justify that optimism.

The U.S. has also slapped tariffs on imported timber as well as kitchen cabinets and furniture, while Trump said he would impose a 100% tariff on all films produced overseas that are then sent into the U.S.
 

(4) OPEC+ Meets. The Context? Oil per Barrel is ~$65

Oil is struggling under the weight of hefty global supplies that only seem to be getting bigger, while demand cannot seem to keep pace.

The International Energy Agency says there could be an implied surplus of over 3 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with an expected excess of 600,000 bpd this year.

The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC and other exporters including Russia, is expected to accelerate the pace at which it is unwinding the curbs on output that imposed during the pandemic.

At around $65 a barrel, crude is worth roughly half what it was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The wildcard for forecasters, producers and consumers alike will remain, as always, geopolitics.
 

(5) New Zealand’s Central Bank Almost Certainly Cuts Its Policy Rate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will almost certainly cut rates next week.

The question is: by how much?

The RBNZ cut rates to a three-year low of 3% in August. Data last month showed New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, due to tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market.

Money markets have fully priced in a quarter-point cut to 2.75% when the RBNZ meets on October 8, but the chances of a half-point reduction have grown to 44.5% from about 25% a week ago.

Policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which kept rates unchanged in September, could spell further weakness in the kiwi, which is already at a three-year low against its Antipodean counterpart.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

This week, I picked a large-cap U.S. tech stock (in the doldrums), a Mexican silver mining company, and a noted Japanese ceramic electronics multi-national.

(1) Zoom Communications (ZM Quick QuoteZM - Free Report) : This is a $82 a share stock, with a market cap of $24.6B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Software industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Zoom Video Communications’ cloud-native unified communications platform, which combines video, audio, phone, screen sharing and chat functionalities, makes remote-working and collaboration easy.

Undoubtedly, the company is benefiting from the work-from-home and online learning wave following the coronavirus pandemic outbreak that forced more and more people to stay home.

Zoom Video’s solutions include Zoom Meetings, Zoom Rooms, Zoom Phone (launched in 2019), Zoom Chat, Zoom Conference Room Connector, Zoom Video Webinars, Zoom for Developers and Zoom App Marketplace.

Zoom Video’s flagship solution Zoom Meetings provides high-definition video, voice, chat and content sharing across mobile devices, desktops, laptops, telephones and conference room systems.

Zoom Meetings integrate with tools, such as Atlassian, Dropbox, Google, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Salesforce and Slack.

Moreover, Zoom Phone is an enterprise cloud phone system that provides inbound and outbound calling via its support for native connectivity to the public switched telephone network (PSTN).

Further, Zoom Video Webinars ($40 per month per host) allow users to conduct large-scale online events. As of the fiscal year ended Jan 31, 2024, Zoom Phone provided native PSTN connectivity in more than 45 countries and territories.

Zoom Video went for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on Apr 17th, 2019. This San Jose, CA-based company reported revenues of $4.66 billion in fiscal 2025.

The company generates revenues from the sale of subscriptions to its video-first communications platform. Subscription revenues are driven primarily by the number of paid hosts as well as purchases of additional products, including Zoom Rooms, Zoom Video Webinars and Zoom Phone.

At the end of first-quarter fiscal 2026, the company had approximately 4,192 customers contributing more than $100,000 in revenues in the trailing 12 months.

Zoom Video faces significant competition from Cisco Webex, LogMeIn GoToMeeting, Microsoft Teams, Google G Suite, Avaya, RingCentral and 8x8.

(2) Fresnillo (FNLPF Quick QuoteFNLPF - Free Report) : This is a $31 a share stock, with a market cap of $23.7B. It is found in the Zacks Silver Mining industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

Fresnillo plc is silver and gold mining and exploration company. It also produces lead and zinc concentrates, silver precipitates, gold and silver dore bars and leases mining equipment. The Company has properties in Mexico.

Fresnillo also holds interests in properties located in Zacatecas, Durango and Sonora.

Fresnillo plc is headquartered in Mexico.

(3) Kyocera (KYOCY Quick QuoteKYOCY - Free Report) : This is a $14 a share stock, with a market cap of $19.4B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Miscellaneous industry. There is a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Kyocera was founded in 1959 as a company specializing in the production of fine ceramic components, Kyocera has expanded its business by effectively developing and applying its ceramics technologies.

The company has grown to be a world-leading manufacturer of ceramics, including custom parts and consumer products.

Kyocera's materials, components, and finished products are used in virtually all fields of industry. In addition to ceramics, products also include information, tele-communications, and Optical equipment.
 

Key Global Macro

This is going to be a quiet trading week for macro prints, and events.

On Monday, it is Mainland China’s National Day.

Euro Area retail sales come out for August. The prior reading was +2.2% y/y.

The BoE’s Bailey gives a speech.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) supplies a policy rate decision. I see a rate cut to 2.75% from 3.0% is expected.

BoJ Governor Ueda gives a speech.

On Wednesday, the latest FOMC minutes come out.

On Thursday, U.S. weekly initial claims for unemployment come out. Consensus looks for 223K. I see a prior low mark of 218K.

On Friday, the Canadian household unemployment rate comes out for September. 7.1% is the prior reading.

A preliminary print of the University of Michigan consumer expectations index for October comes out. I see a low 51.7 prior reading.
 

Conclusion

On October 2nd, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out his latest S&P500 earnings update.

Here are the key points:

(1) For Q3-25, total S&P500 index earnings are expected to be up +5.5% from the same period last year, on +6.1% higher revenues.

(2) The positive revisions trend makes the overall setup for the Q3 earnings season favorable. 

• But it raises the odds of actual results coming up short of expectations. 
• In other words, it is reasonable to worry whether expectations for the period are too high — particularly for the Tech and Finance sectors. 

(3) For the Magnificent 7 group?

• Zacks expects Q3 earnings to be up +12.1% from the same period last year, on +14.7% higher revenues.
• This would follow the group’s +26.4% earnings growth, on +15.5% revenue growth, in the preceding period.

(4) For the 19 S&P500 members that have recently reported quarterly results for their fiscal quarters ending in August (part of the Q3 tally)?

• Total earnings are up +11.9% from the same period last year, on +7.2% higher revenue.
• 73.7% beat EPS estimates and 78.9% beat revenue estimates.

Surprisingly (or not?), the tumult seen in U.S. politics has not reached into the corporate earnings landscape.

At least not yet.

Enjoy this October week, in trading and investing!

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economics