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In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. CMG’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average being 4.7%, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG’s Q3 Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has been unchanged at 28 cents in the past seven days. The projected figure indicates a gain of 3.7% from the year-ago reported EPS of 27 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.02 billion, implying 8% year-over-year growth.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CMG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
CMG’s Earnings ESP: Chipotle currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.32%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of CMG: The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
For the third quarter of 2025, Chipotle’s top line is likely to have benefited from several growth drivers. Strong marketing campaigns, particularly the “Summer of Extras” rewards initiative, are likely to have helped attract and reengage customers, including lapsed and low-frequency users.
Digital engagement also played a key role, as about 20 million loyalty members remained active, contributing to higher visit frequency and spend. Additionally, continued momentum from throughput improvements and operational enhancements supported transaction gains, while international expansion, including progress in Europe and the Middle East, is expected to have added incremental sales contributions.
New restaurant openings are also expected to have strengthened revenue performance. In second-quarter 2025, Chipotle opened a record 61 locations, most featuring Chipotlanes, and remained on track for 315-345 new openings in 2025. This accelerated unit growth, alongside international expansion in Canada, Europe and the Middle East, has created a larger sales base for the third quarter. Investments in technology and high-efficiency kitchen equipment also bode well. Together, these factors set up a favorable backdrop for top-line performance despite a challenging consumer environment.
On the bottom line, margin support came from disciplined cost controls and efficiencies. Chipotle’s supply-chain and in-restaurant initiatives lowered food costs, with better inventory management, reduced waste and more favorable avocado pricing, helping offset protein inflation. Despite higher marketing investments, these operational efficiencies and prior pricing actions are likely to have helped protect profitability.
However, performance was constrained by several headwinds. Comparable sales are expected to have faced pressure from weak consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-income customers who sought cheaper alternatives amid heightened inflation. Although traffic trends improved in June and July following intensified marketing efforts and promotional activity, management acknowledged that macro headwinds — such as promotional activity across the QSR industry and consumers trading down — remain persistent.
These factors have not only impacted short-term traffic but also necessitated a reevaluation of Chipotle’s value communication strategy. For 2025, management anticipates comparable sales to remain roughly flat, down from the earlier projection of low-single-digit growth.
Operating costs are also expected to have added pressure. Marketing spending increased notably as Chipotle doubled down on promotions and digital engagement to counteract summer slowdowns, driving operating expenses higher. Tariffs on certain imports, especially avocados and proteins, remain a concern. Additionally, wage inflation and the need to invest hours back into restaurants, rather than cutting labor outright, are expected to have kept labor costs elevated. Combined with these consumer and cost pressures, these factors are expected to have muted the overall benefit of Chipotle’s top-line initiatives.
Price Performance & Valuation of CMG
CMG stock has declined 32.1% over the past year, underperforming its industry peers and the broader market. In the same time frame, shares of other industry players like Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) , CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) have declined 0.6%, 54.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Analysts have expressed concerns that CMG stock is overvalued. The company is currently valued at a premium compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.6, higher than the industry average.
P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thoughts for CMG
Chipotle’s upcoming results are clouded by a mix of execution gains and persistent external pressures, making the stock look risky heading into the release. While the company has leaned on marketing campaigns, digital engagement and steady unit growth to sustain momentum, these positives are being overshadowed by weak consumer sentiment, competitive discounting in the broader quick-service space and rising operating costs tied to labor, marketing and tariffs.
With management itself signaling flattish comparable sales for the year, the near-term growth story appears limited. Coupled with concerns around its premium valuation versus peers, these factors indicate investors may be better off avoiding the stock ahead of the quarterly report.
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CMG Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
Key Takeaways
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1%. CMG’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average being 4.7%, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG’s Q3 Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has been unchanged at 28 cents in the past seven days. The projected figure indicates a gain of 3.7% from the year-ago reported EPS of 27 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.02 billion, implying 8% year-over-year growth.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CMG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
CMG’s Earnings ESP: Chipotle currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.32%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of CMG: The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Influencing CMG’s Q3 Performance
For the third quarter of 2025, Chipotle’s top line is likely to have benefited from several growth drivers. Strong marketing campaigns, particularly the “Summer of Extras” rewards initiative, are likely to have helped attract and reengage customers, including lapsed and low-frequency users.
Digital engagement also played a key role, as about 20 million loyalty members remained active, contributing to higher visit frequency and spend. Additionally, continued momentum from throughput improvements and operational enhancements supported transaction gains, while international expansion, including progress in Europe and the Middle East, is expected to have added incremental sales contributions.
New restaurant openings are also expected to have strengthened revenue performance. In second-quarter 2025, Chipotle opened a record 61 locations, most featuring Chipotlanes, and remained on track for 315-345 new openings in 2025. This accelerated unit growth, alongside international expansion in Canada, Europe and the Middle East, has created a larger sales base for the third quarter. Investments in technology and high-efficiency kitchen equipment also bode well. Together, these factors set up a favorable backdrop for top-line performance despite a challenging consumer environment.
On the bottom line, margin support came from disciplined cost controls and efficiencies. Chipotle’s supply-chain and in-restaurant initiatives lowered food costs, with better inventory management, reduced waste and more favorable avocado pricing, helping offset protein inflation. Despite higher marketing investments, these operational efficiencies and prior pricing actions are likely to have helped protect profitability.
However, performance was constrained by several headwinds. Comparable sales are expected to have faced pressure from weak consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-income customers who sought cheaper alternatives amid heightened inflation. Although traffic trends improved in June and July following intensified marketing efforts and promotional activity, management acknowledged that macro headwinds — such as promotional activity across the QSR industry and consumers trading down — remain persistent.
These factors have not only impacted short-term traffic but also necessitated a reevaluation of Chipotle’s value communication strategy. For 2025, management anticipates comparable sales to remain roughly flat, down from the earlier projection of low-single-digit growth.
Operating costs are also expected to have added pressure. Marketing spending increased notably as Chipotle doubled down on promotions and digital engagement to counteract summer slowdowns, driving operating expenses higher. Tariffs on certain imports, especially avocados and proteins, remain a concern. Additionally, wage inflation and the need to invest hours back into restaurants, rather than cutting labor outright, are expected to have kept labor costs elevated. Combined with these consumer and cost pressures, these factors are expected to have muted the overall benefit of Chipotle’s top-line initiatives.
Price Performance & Valuation of CMG
CMG stock has declined 32.1% over the past year, underperforming its industry peers and the broader market. In the same time frame, shares of other industry players like Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) , CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) have declined 0.6%, 54.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Analysts have expressed concerns that CMG stock is overvalued. The company is currently valued at a premium compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.6, higher than the industry average.
P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thoughts for CMG
Chipotle’s upcoming results are clouded by a mix of execution gains and persistent external pressures, making the stock look risky heading into the release. While the company has leaned on marketing campaigns, digital engagement and steady unit growth to sustain momentum, these positives are being overshadowed by weak consumer sentiment, competitive discounting in the broader quick-service space and rising operating costs tied to labor, marketing and tariffs.
With management itself signaling flattish comparable sales for the year, the near-term growth story appears limited. Coupled with concerns around its premium valuation versus peers, these factors indicate investors may be better off avoiding the stock ahead of the quarterly report.