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How Should You Play OppFi Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release?

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Key Takeaways

  • OppFi is set to report Q3 results on Oct. 29, with revenues expected to rise 11.7% y/y.
  • Earnings are projected to dip 6.1% despite strong past surprises and steady analyst estimates.
  • AI-led lending, high approval rates and robust liquidity continue to bolster OppFi's performance.

OppFi Inc. (OPFI - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is set at $152.6 million, suggesting 11.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings per share is pinned at 31 cents per share, indicating a 6.1% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

There has been no change in analyst estimates or revisions lately.

The company has a remarkable earnings surprise history. It beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 54.4%.

OppFi Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

OppFi Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

OppFi Inc. price-eps-surprise | OppFi Inc. Quote

OPFI’s Chances of Q3 Earnings Beat Low

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for OppFithis time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

OPFI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

OPFI’s Customer-First Strategy: Driving Success in Q3

We expect OppFi’s customer-centric strategy to have been the key driver of its top line, with AI and machine learning (ML) models aiding this approach. In the second quarter of 2025, the company recorded its loan auto approval rate of 80%, an increase from the year-ago quarter’s 76%.

We are bullish on OPFI’s customer-first strategy to improve the auto approval rate, driving demand for customers. In the June-end quarter, the company had a Net Promoter Score of 79, reflecting strong customer satisfaction, a testament to OPFI’s success in adopting a customer-driven approach.

OPFI’s Stock Surges, Valuation Enticing

OppFi shares have skyrocketed 88.9% in a year. It has outperformed the industry‘s marginal growth and the 18.9% rise of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. It has also outperformed its industry peers, FirstCash (FCFS - Free Report) and Corpay (CPAY - Free Report) . FCFS has gained 45.5%, while CPAY has declined 16.1% over the same period.

1-Year Share Price Performance

 

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

The OPFI stock is looking cheap and is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 6.93, lower than the industry's 21.58. The stock in question is trading cheaper than FirstCash and Corpay as well. FCFS and CPAY are trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 16.26 and 11.97, respectively.

P/E - F12M

 

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

OppFi’s Investment Considerations

OPFI has demonstrated an effective risk mitigation strategy while serving the subprime or non-prime customers. In the past few quarters, OppFi’s Net Charge-Off rate has declined heavily, with a 400-basis-point (bps) year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter of 2024, and 700-bps and 300-bps declines in the first and second quarters of this year.

Despite serving a credit default risk-heavy demography, OPFI’s risk-management initiatives, dependent on its AI and ML credit assessment models, have provided a significant boost to customer demand.

We have also found the company to have performed well on the liquidity front. In the second quarter of 2025, OPFI’s current ratio of 1.72 exceeded the industry average of 1.17. The company managed to improve its position from the year-ago quarter’s 1.57. Given this backdrop, we are pretty optimistic about OppFi’s caliber to cover short-term obligations.

Meanwhile, we must acknowledge the credit risks that linger over the company, given the population it serves. Credit facility provided to individuals with a credit score below 650 elevates the risks of credit default. Despite the effective credit assessment models in place, we must be cautious about these inherent risks faced by the company.

Final Thoughts: Hold OPFI for Now

OppFi’s customer-first strategy is instrumental to its revenue growth. A strong risk mitigation strategy dependent on AI and ML-based models lowers the chance of credit default. Having said that, the top-line prospects of the company look strong. However, the bottom-line outlook appears unsatisfactory. A lower chance of an earnings beat is an added concern.

We can conclude by saying that investors should refrain from rushing to buy OPFI, which is facing quite a few challenges, ahead of its earnings release on Oct. 29. Instead, investors should monitor the developments of the stock closely for a more appropriate entry point, as a hasty decision may affect portfolio gains. OppFi’s current Zacks Rank supports our thesis.


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