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Agricultural ETFs to Gain With U.S.-China Trade Truce on the Horizon

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Hopes have been soaring in the stock market ahead of the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week in South Korea. While tech and manufacturing headlines often dominate coverage, nowhere has the pain of the protracted U.S.-China dispute been felt more deeply than in the American agriculture sector.

In particular, the current wave of optimism took the U.S. stock market to new highs yesterday, following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement over the weekend that the two sides have agreed on the framework of a potential trade deal and also hinted at a possible resumption in America’s soybean sales to China (as mentioned in major news media, including ABC News).

Revived hopes of a successful trade truce between the United States and China, if realized, could significantly boost the American agricultural sector and, in turn, key agriculture-linked Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that hold these companies.

The Trade War’s Impact on US Agriculture

China has been a major exporting destination for U.S. agricultural products for decades. As per a report by the American Farm Bureau Federation, in 2012, China purchased more than $25 billion of U.S. farm products, nearly 20% of America’s agricultural exports.

However, the on-and-off trade tension between the two nations has resulted in a gradual slowdown in export sales to China for the American agricultural sector over the past few years. Evidently, the $25 billion sales of 2012 dropped to about $9 billion in 2018, marking the lowest in a decade.

Against this backdrop, in March 2025, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on a range of American products, including soybeans, in response to the tariff barriers imposed by the Trump administration a few days earlier, which cast a larger shadow of uncertainty over the U.S. agricultural sector. U.S. agricultural exports to China dropped more than $6.8 billion since January 2025, reflecting a staggering decline of over 73%, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ Oct. 21 report.

The pain has been most acute for soybean and corn producers, with China being the top buyer for U.S. soybeans. From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled just 218 million bushels, down sharply from 985 million bushels in 2024, with China not importing any soybeans from the U.S. in September. Corn and other crops have also been suffering along similar lines, as China did not purchase any U.S. corn, wheat or sorghum this year, while pork and cotton exports continue only at reduced levels. Consequently, agricultural stocks have been struggling on the bourses, as reflected in the 6.5% loss suffered by the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index year to date.

It is evident that a trade truce between America and China remains crucial to putting the U.S. agricultural sector back on the path to profitability.

Why Focus on Agricultural ETFs?

Agricultural ETFs offer a straightforward way to invest in the entire agricultural sector rather than betting on individual companies. This diversifies risk while providing direct exposure to the commodity market.

These ETFs have been under pressure since 2024 due to global trade uncertainty and commodity price volatility caused by the trade war. A definitive end to the trade dispute and the resumption of major Chinese purchases of U.S. commodities could provide an immediate and substantial tailwind, driving these ETF values higher.

Agricultural ETFs Poised for Recovery

The recent trade optimism has already begun influencing investor sentiment, suggesting the sharp recovery these ETFs could witness once a formal truce is reached. Impressively, in anticipation of a potential trade truce, several key agricultural ETFs have already shown upward momentum over the past week. These ETFs are:

Teucrium Soybean ETF ((SOYB - Free Report) )

This fund, with total net assets worth $38.5 million, seeks to capture the broader dynamics of the soybean market.

SOYB has lost 16.1% since 2024 but gained 2.8% over the past week. The fund charges 83 basis points (bps) as fees.

2x Corn ETF ((CORX - Free Report) )

This fund, with net assets worth $0.9 million, seeks to provide daily investment results that correspond to two times the return of corn for a single day.

CORX has lost 19.8% since 2024 but gained 3.9% over the past week. The fund charges 198 bps as fees.

Teucrium Corn ETF ((CORN - Free Report) )

This fund, with total net assets worth $48.7 million, offers exposure to the corn market for future delivery.

CORN has lost 17.1% since 2024 but gained 2.3% over the past week. The fund charges 94 bps as fees.

Teucrium Agricultural ETF ((TAGS - Free Report) )

This fund, with total net assets worth $7.8 million, offers exposure to four core agricultural commodities, namely, corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar.

TAGS has lost 21.2% since 2024 but gained 1.4% over the past week. The fund charges 18 bps as fees.

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