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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell GILD Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
Gilead will report Q3 2025 results on Oct. 30, with sales and EPS estimates of $7.46B and $2.15.
HIV portfolio strength from Biktarvy, Descovy, and new approval Yeztugo is driving top-line growth.
Cell Therapy sales likely declined amid competition, while Trodelvy and Livdelzi demand stayed strong.
Biotech bigwig Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $7.46 billion and $2.15 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $8.07 from $8.09 per share over the past 30 days, and that for 2026 has declined to $8.50 from $8.53 in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
GILD’s Earnings Surprise History
GILD has a good track record. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 11.04%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 3.08%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for GILD
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for GILD is -1.34%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing GILD’s Q3 Results
Gilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy. Biktarvy sales and Descovy for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have fueled GILD’s top-line growth in the past several quarters.
HIV sales were up in the second quarter despite the impact of the new Medicare Part D model implementation due to increased demand for Biktarvy and Descovy. This trend has most likely prevailed in the third quarter as well.
The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.6 billion and $629 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.6 billion and $633 million.
GILD’s HIV portfolio received a boost with the FDA approval for its twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, lenacapavir,for the prevention of HIV. This groundbreaking injectable therapy marks the first and only twice-yearly pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) option available in the United States.
The FDA approval of lenacapavir under the brand name Yeztugo solidifies GILD’s HIV portfolio.
GILD is optimistic about growth in the HIV prevention market as it prepares to launch Yeztugo. The company now expects HIV sales to grow approximately 3% in 2025 from its prior assumption of flat revenue growth, driven by the strong performance of Biktarvy and Descovy so far this year. The European Commission also granted marketing authorization to HIV prevention drug lenacapavir, under the brand name Yeytuo.
The Liver Disease portfolio includes drugs for chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and chronic hepatitis delta virus.
The FDA had earlier granted accelerated approval to seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), in combination with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), in adults who have had an inadequate response to UDCA, or as monotherapy in patients unable to tolerate UDCA, under the brand name Livdelzi. The European Commission has also granted conditional marketing authorization to seladelpar for the treatment of PBC.
Increased demand for Livdelzi, Hepcludex (bulevirtide) and HBV products might have offset lower HCV sales in the third quarter. GILD expects Livdelzi uptake to have been slower in the third quarter as compared to the second.
Veklury sales continue to be highly variable.
Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) have likely decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds, both in the United States and internationally. In particular, Tecartus sales have likely suffered due to these headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $476 million and $461.2 million, respectively.
Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, likely experienced strong demand in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $369 million and $357 million, respectively.
R&D expenses might have increased year over year while SG&A expenses must have remained flat, as in the previous quarter.
GILD’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of GILD have risen 27.7% year to date compared with the industry’s gain of 10.8%. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this timeframe.
Gilead Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500 Index
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, GILD’s shares currently trade at 13.98x forward earnings, higher than its mean of 10.78x but lower than 15.57x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for GILD
Gilead has a market-leading portfolio of HIV treatments. The company’s consistent efforts to develop additional innovative HIV treatments are being appreciated by investors. While HIV sales might be under slight pressure in 2025, the recent approval of lenacapavir for the prevention of the disease should solidify Gilead’s HIV franchise (as lenacapavir needs to be taken twice yearly unlike daily oral pills) and result in incremental sales.
The approval of Livdelzi has expanded the liver-disease portfolio.
The uptake of breast cancer drug Trodelvy has been good.
However, the Cell Therapy franchise, comprising Yescarta and Tecartus, is currently under pressure due to competitive headwinds (both in the United States and Europe) that are expected to continue in the rest of 2025. GILD’s strategic deals and acquisitions to diversify its business are encouraging.
Stay Invested in GILD Stock
Gilead is one of the largest biotechs in the industry, and such large companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector. Its efforts to constantly innovate its HIV portfolio should help maintain growth amid competition from GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) . The company’s strategic deals and acquisitions to diversify its business are encouraging.
GILD has also collaborated with Merck (MRK - Free Report) to evaluate the investigational combination of islatravir and lenacapavir for the treatment of HIV, with a phase III update expected in 2026.
However, we recommend prospective investors to wait and watch for now as the Cell Therapy business navigates the anticipated challenges in 2025.
For investors already owning the stock, staying invested would be a prudent move. The company’s attractive dividend yield is a strong positive.
Image: Bigstock
Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell GILD Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Biotech bigwig Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $7.46 billion and $2.15 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $8.07 from $8.09 per share over the past 30 days, and that for 2026 has declined to $8.50 from $8.53 in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
GILD’s Earnings Surprise History
GILD has a good track record. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 11.04%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 3.08%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for GILD
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for GILD is -1.34%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing GILD’s Q3 Results
Gilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy. Biktarvy sales and Descovy for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have fueled GILD’s top-line growth in the past several quarters.
HIV sales were up in the second quarter despite the impact of the new Medicare Part D model implementation due to increased demand for Biktarvy and Descovy. This trend has most likely prevailed in the third quarter as well.
The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.6 billion and $629 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.6 billion and $633 million.
GILD’s HIV portfolio received a boost with the FDA approval for its twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, lenacapavir,for the prevention of HIV. This groundbreaking injectable therapy marks the first and only twice-yearly pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) option available in the United States.
The FDA approval of lenacapavir under the brand name Yeztugo solidifies GILD’s HIV portfolio.
GILD is optimistic about growth in the HIV prevention market as it prepares to launch Yeztugo. The company now expects HIV sales to grow approximately 3% in 2025 from its prior assumption of flat revenue growth, driven by the strong performance of Biktarvy and Descovy so far this year. The European Commission also granted marketing authorization to HIV prevention drug lenacapavir, under the brand name Yeytuo.
The Liver Disease portfolio includes drugs for chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and chronic hepatitis delta virus.
The FDA had earlier granted accelerated approval to seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), in combination with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), in adults who have had an inadequate response to UDCA, or as monotherapy in patients unable to tolerate UDCA, under the brand name Livdelzi. The European Commission has also granted conditional marketing authorization to seladelpar for the treatment of PBC.
Increased demand for Livdelzi, Hepcludex (bulevirtide) and HBV products might have offset lower HCV sales in the third quarter. GILD expects Livdelzi uptake to have been slower in the third quarter as compared to the second.
Veklury sales continue to be highly variable.
Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) have likely decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds, both in the United States and internationally. In particular, Tecartus sales have likely suffered due to these headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $476 million and $461.2 million, respectively.
Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, likely experienced strong demand in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $369 million and $357 million, respectively.
R&D expenses might have increased year over year while SG&A expenses must have remained flat, as in the previous quarter.
GILD’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of GILD have risen 27.7% year to date compared with the industry’s gain of 10.8%. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this timeframe.
Gilead Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500 Index
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, GILD’s shares currently trade at 13.98x forward earnings, higher than its mean of 10.78x but lower than 15.57x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for GILD
Gilead has a market-leading portfolio of HIV treatments. The company’s consistent efforts to develop additional innovative HIV treatments are being appreciated by investors. While HIV sales might be under slight pressure in 2025, the recent approval of lenacapavir for the prevention of the disease should solidify Gilead’s HIV franchise (as lenacapavir needs to be taken twice yearly unlike daily oral pills) and result in incremental sales.
The approval of Livdelzi has expanded the liver-disease portfolio.
The uptake of breast cancer drug Trodelvy has been good.
However, the Cell Therapy franchise, comprising Yescarta and Tecartus, is currently under pressure due to competitive headwinds (both in the United States and Europe) that are expected to continue in the rest of 2025.
GILD’s strategic deals and acquisitions to diversify its business are encouraging.
Stay Invested in GILD Stock
Gilead is one of the largest biotechs in the industry, and such large companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector. Its efforts to constantly innovate its HIV portfolio should help maintain growth amid competition from GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) . The company’s strategic deals and acquisitions to diversify its business are encouraging.
GILD has also collaborated with Merck (MRK - Free Report) to evaluate the investigational combination of islatravir and lenacapavir for the treatment of HIV, with a phase III update expected in 2026.
However, we recommend prospective investors to wait and watch for now as the Cell Therapy business navigates the anticipated challenges in 2025.
For investors already owning the stock, staying invested would be a prudent move. The company’s attractive dividend yield is a strong positive.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.