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Modine Stock Down 4% Post Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Stay Invested?

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Key Takeaways

  • Modine's Q2 revenues rose 12% and EPS grew 9%, both topping consensus estimates.
  • Climate Solutions revenues surged 24%, boosted by recent acquisitions and capacity gains.
  • FY26 sales outlook lifted to 15-20% growth, though cash flow will tighten amid expansion.

Shares of Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD - Free Report) slid more than 4% since the release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Oct. 28, after the closing bells. The stock fell despite a year-over-year rise in fiscal second-quarter revenues and an upward revision in the fiscal 2026 revenues forecast. The Zacks Automotive – Original Equipment industry remained stagnant during the same time frame.

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Modine's top and bottom-line performance surpassed the Zacks Consensus estimates in the fiscal second quarter. The company reported net revenues of $738.9 million, which increased 12% from the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 increased 9% year over year.

Modine competes with Aptiv PLC (APTV - Free Report) and Dana Incorporated (DAN - Free Report) in the original equipment industry. Dana reported third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29. It posted EPS growth of 41.7% year over year while revenues remained flat. Aptiv reported its third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30. It posted EPS and revenue growth of 7% and 18.5%, respectively.  

Factors Stimulating MOD’s Growth

In the fiscal second quarter, the company’s performance was bolstered by the Climate Solutions segment, which recorded a 24% year-over-year increase in revenues. This growth reflects the contributions of AbsolutAire, L.B. White and Climate by Design International acquisitions completed earlier in the year. As the company integrates these businesses, it is applying 80/20 operational principles to enhance margins, optimize capacity utilization and create new commercial cross-selling opportunities. 

Incorporating these well-regarded brands into Modine’s portfolio expands its product range and strengthens the scale of the HVAC Technologies business. For Climate Solutions, the company expects fiscal 2026 sales to grow 35% to 40% year over year.

The company's significant progress toward the capacity expansion efforts bodes well for its prospects. Chiller production has begun at the facility in Grenada, MS, where two of the planned five lines are currently operational. The full production is expected by year-end. The plant in Franklin, WI, is set to begin initial data center product production in the fiscal third quarter, while the site in Jefferson City, MO, will launch two of its four chiller lines in the fiscal fourth quarter. 

Additionally, the company secured its final expansion site in Grand Prairie, TX, which is expected to be fully operational early next fiscal year with five chiller lines and flexible manufacturing capabilities. 

The company has begun producing data center products at the new facility in Chennai, India, enhancing its ability to serve APAC customers with locally manufactured solutions. It also plans to expand chiller capacity in the United Kingdom to meet increasing demand from hyperscale and colocation customers in Europe. The additional capacity is expected to come online early next fiscal year. The company aims to achieve over 60% revenue growth in the data center business this year and reach more than $2 billion in revenues by fiscal 2028.

Based on the momentum of the Climate Solutions segment and the capacity expansion efforts, Modine has made an upward revision in its fiscal 2026 sales guidance. The company now expects sales to grow in the range of 15-20% year over year compared with its prior estimate of 10-15%.

Factors Acting Against Modine’s Growth Prospects

In the fiscal second quarter, Performance Technologies revenues fell 4% from the prior year, with on-highway applications down 3% due to softer demand in commercial, specialty and bus vehicle markets. For fiscal 2026, Modine expects Performance Technologies revenues to range from flat to a 7% decline, as end markets are likely to stay weak amid ongoing trade tensions and cautious market conditions. 

The company anticipates lower cash flow as a percentage of sales in the second half of fiscal 2026, indicating increased investments in data center capacity and higher working capital needs to support growth. Full-year free cash flow is projected to be approximately 2.5% to 3% of sales.

Valuation & Estimates

MOD is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.63, above the industry’s ratio of 1.96. The company is also trading above its peers’ forward P/S ratio. Aptiv is trading at a forward P/S ratio of 0.90, while Dana is trading at 0.38.  

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MOD’s fiscal 2026 sales and earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 11.3% and 14.8%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS has moved up 14 cents in the past 90 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2027 EPS has moved down 4 cents in the past 30 days.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Should You Buy the Stock Now?

Modine remains a solid long-term holding for existing investors, supported by continued momentum in the Climate Solutions segment and strategic capacity expansions that position it for growth. Recent acquisitions are driving stronger margins and broader product offerings, while new manufacturing facilities in the United States, India and planned expansion in the United Kingdom support rising demand in data center and HVAC markets. The upward revision in fiscal 2026 sales outlook and long-term goal of surpassing $2 billion in data center revenues by fiscal 2028 signal confidence in sustained growth. 

However, the near-term outlook is tempered by ongoing weakness in the Performance Technologies segment, lower expected free cash flow due to heavy growth investments and a valuation above industry peers. 

Taken collectively, these factors support the case for existing shareholders to maintain their positions, but do not suggest that the present environment is optimal for initiating new positions.

MOD carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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