BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI Quick QuoteBBAI - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 10, after the closing bell, and the key focus will be on whether the company’s innovation-first strategy and record liquidity can offset ongoing contract volatility in the U.S. federal space.

BigBear.ai’s second-quarter 2025 results reflected near-term federal contract disruptions but strong strategic positioning. Revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.8% and fell 18% year over year to $32.5 million due to lower Army program volumes, pressuring gross margin and contributing to a larger net loss driven mostly by non-cash derivative revaluations and a goodwill impairment charge. Adjusted loss per share of 6 cents beat the consensus mark but reported a wider loss from the year-ago level of 4 cents. Backlog remained healthy at $380 million, and the company ended the quarter with a record $390.8 million in cash, strengthening its ability to invest in security-focused AI growth initiatives tied to major DHS and DoD modernization programs.

This artificial intelligence (AI Quick QuoteAI - Free Report) provider surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average negative surprise of 1%.

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How Are Estimates Placed for BigBear.ai Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earnings per share has remained unchanged at a loss of 6 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a wider loss from the year-ago reported loss of 5 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $31.1 million, suggesting a 25% year-over-year decrease.
 

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For 2025, BigBear.ai is expected to register a 16.2% increase from a year ago in revenues. Its bottom line is expected to witness a loss that is the same as the year ago. Below is what to expect in the third quarter for BBAI stock.

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Key Driving Factors Likely to Influence BigBear.ai’s Q3 Results

Tailwinds in National Security AI

BigBear.ai is positioned to benefit from a major surge in U.S. homeland security and defense spending, particularly from the One Big Beautiful Bill, which allocates $170 billion in supplemental DHS funds and $150 billion to disruptive defense technologies — areas directly aligned with BigBear.ai’s biometric, autonomy and logistics offerings. Continued expansion of biometric entry/exit deployments, including new Enhanced Passenger Processing rollouts at airports like Nashville International, supports revenue growth in identity and border security solutions. As modernization ramps across federal agencies, BigBear.ai’s leadership in traveler and cargo security provides a strong pipeline into the third quarter.

Defense Autonomy and Maritime Intelligence Momentum

Third-quarter results may also benefit from increased activity in distributed autonomy and maritime domain awareness. BigBear.ai’s ConductorOS orchestration platform continues to demonstrate value in real-time decision support for unmanned systems, including upcoming operational deployments with the U.S. Navy’s 4th Fleet at UNITAS 2025. Such visibility enhances mid-term program capture and supports potential new tasking in edge AI and multi-domain security operations.

International Expansion Driving Long-Term Scale

International partnerships represent a new and growing revenue channel. The launch of a next-generation cargo security management system in Panama extends BigBear.ai’s addressable market into global trade protection, while UAE partnerships accelerate the adoption of AI-driven solutions across multiple mission spaces. These efforts diversify away from reliance on U.S. federal contracts and could begin contributing to results in the third quarter.

Balance Sheet Strength Enables Growth Investments

With a record $390.8 million in cash, management plans to invest aggressively in product scaling and M&A. These investments are aimed at accelerating revenue capture in high-priority sectors and expanding backlog conversion over the next several quarters.

Challenges and Execution Watchpoints

The primary execution risk remains disruptions in U.S. Army contracts tied to data architecture modernization, which pressured recent revenue and forecast visibility. Management indicates it is competing to regain and expand Army work, but the third quarter may still reflect a transitional period as pipeline diversification continues. With full-year revenue guided to $125–$140 million, missing prior expectations, the key focus will be on BBAI’s operating discipline as R&D and market-expansion spending weigh on margins in the near term.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for BigBear.ai Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BigBear.ai for the quarter to be reported. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: BBAI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BBAI Stock Price Performance

BigBear.ai stock has lost 2% over the July-September 2025 period, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry but lagging the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500 index.

BBAI stock (as of Nov. 5, 2025) is now trading at a 40.8% discount to its 52-week high of $10.36 and a premium of 285.6% to its 52-week low of $1.59.

BBAI Stock’s July-September Performance

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BBAI Stock’s Valuation

In terms of the forward 12-month price/sales (P/S), BBAI stock is currently trading at a premium to its industry.

BBAI’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

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BBAI’s Competitive Position

BigBear.ai operates in a fast-moving national security and enterprise AI market where it faces some heavyweight rivals, including Palantir Technologies (PLTR Quick QuotePLTR - Free Report) , C3.ai (AI Quick QuoteAI - Free Report) and Leidos Holdings (LDOS Quick QuoteLDOS - Free Report) . While Palantir and C3.ai build broad AI platforms for large commercial and government systems, BigBear.ai focuses on what it sees as a clear sweet spot — mission-ready autonomy, maritime and border intelligence, and biometric security designed specifically for defense and critical infrastructure. Leidos’ long-standing relationships with federal agencies make competition fierce, especially during major contract bids. Even so, BigBear.ai’s specialization, strength in orchestrating data and sensors at the edge, and growing presence overseas give it room to stand out. As Palantir, C3.ai and Leidos continue to push deeper into high-stakes U.S. government programs, BigBear.ai is betting that agility and a product-driven approach will help it gain ground in the next wave of security-focused AI modernization.

Why BBAI Stock Is a Hold for Now?

Contract disruptions in U.S. Army programs continue to weigh on the topline, but the company’s alignment with accelerating homeland security and defense modernization — backed by the One Big Beautiful Bill — strengthens the case for future growth. A record $390.8 million cash balance gives management the flexibility to invest in high-priority autonomy, maritime intelligence and biometric security solutions, while expanding internationally to reduce U.S. federal dependency.

With shares trading sharply below their 52-week high, BBAI offers an attractive risk-reward setup for investors willing to weather short-term volatility. Maintaining a position now allows investors to stay exposed to potential backlog conversion and contract wins that could re-ignite momentum into 2026.