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BOK Financial (BOKF) Down 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BOK Financial due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for BOK Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

BOK Financial Q3 Earnings Top Estimates as NII & Fee Income Rise Y/Y

BOK Financial’s third-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.22 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.10. The bottom line increased 1.8% from the prior-year quarter.

BOKF’s results benefited from higher net interest income and total fees and commissions. An increase in loans and deposit balances was another positive. However, the increase in operating expenses was a major undermining factor.

The net income attributable to shareholders was $140.9 million, which rose slightly year over year.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Quarterly net revenues of $548.3 million (net interest income and total other operating revenues) rose 6.2% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $533.7 million.

Net interest income was $337.6 million, up 9.6% year over year. The net interest margin expanded 23 basis points to 2.91%.

Total fees and commissions were $204.4 million, up nearly 1% year over year. The upside was driven by higher fiduciary and asset management revenues, transaction card revenues, deposit service charges and fees, and mortgage banking revenues.

Total other operating expenses were $369.8 million, up 8.4% year over year. This rise was mainly driven by higher personnel expenses.

The efficiency ratio rose to 66.66% from the prior year’s 65.11%. A rise in the efficiency ratio indicates a deterioration in profitability.

Loan Balance & Deposits Rise

As of Sept. 30, 2025, total loans were $24.8 billion, up 2.3% from the prior quarter. The increase was primarily due to growth in commercial loans, commercial real estate loans and loans to individuals.

Total deposits slightly rose on a sequential basis to $38.5 billion. The increase was driven by higher interest-bearing transaction accounts and time deposits.

Credit Quality: Mixed Bag

Non-performing assets were $74 million or 0.30% of outstanding loans and repossessed assets, as of Sept. 30, 2025, which decreased from $87 million or 0.36% in the prior-year quarter.

Provisions for credit losses remained stable at $2 million from the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded net charge-offs of $3.6 million, compared with net recoveries of $54 thousand in the year-ago quarter.

The allowance for loan losses was 1.12% of outstanding loans as of Sept. 30, 2025, which declined 7 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Capital Ratios Improve & Profitability Ratios Decline

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.60%, up from 12.73% a year earlier. The tier 1 capital ratio and total capital ratio were 13.61% and 14.48%, respectively, compared with 12.74% and 13.91%, as of Sept. 30, 2024.

At the end of the third quarter, return on average equity was 9.38%, down from the year-earlier quarter’s 10.22%. Return on average assets was 1.08%, down from 1.09% a year ago.

Share Repurchase Update

During the reported quarter, BOK Financial repurchased 365,547 shares at an average price of $111 per share.

2025 Outlook

The company expects loan growth of 5-7% from the $24.1 billion reported in 2024.

Management expects NII of $1.33-$1.35 billion for 2025, suggesting a rise from the $1.2 billion recorded in 2024.

Total fees and commission revenues are anticipated to be $775-$810 million.

Non-interest expenses (excluding FDIC special assessment) are likely to increase at a mid-single-digit rate from the $1.37 billion reported in 2024.

Total revenues are expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range from the $2.05 billion reported in 2024.

Management expects the efficiency ratio to be 65-66%. The metric is expected to decline over the year as revenue grows.

Provisions are expected to be below the $18 million recorded in 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, BOK Financial has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Interestingly, BOK Financial has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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