It has been about a month since the last earnings report for AGNC Investment (AGNC Quick QuoteAGNC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AGNC Investment due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

AGNC Investment Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Book Value Declines Y/Y

AGNC Investment third-quarter 2025 net spread and dollar roll income per common share (excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization benefit) of 35 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. The bottom line declined from 43 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income available to common stockholders of $430 million moved up 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.

The company reported a third-quarter comprehensive income per common share of 78 cents, up from 64 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Results were adversely impacted by a decline in tangible net book value per share (BVPS) and net interest spread. Nonetheless, a rise in average asset yield on the portfolio was positive.

Inside Headlines

Net interest income was $148 million against net interest expenses of $64 million in the prior-year quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45.2%.

AGNC Investment's average asset yield on its portfolio was 4.95% in the third quarter of 2025, up from 4.73% in the third quarter of 2024.

The combined weighted average cost of funds, inclusive of interest rate swap, was 3.17% compared with 2.52% in the third quarter of 2024.

The average net interest spread (excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization benefits) was 1.78%, down from 2.21% in the year-ago quarter.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, AGNC Investment’s average tangible net book value "at risk" leverage ratio was 7.6X, up from 7.2X from the prior-year quarter.
In the third quarter, the company's investment portfolio bore an average actual constant prepayment rate of 8.6%, down from 13.2% in the year-ago quarter.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, tangible net BVPS was $8.28, down 6.1% on a year-over-year basis.

The economic return on tangible common equity was 10.6% compared with 9.3% in the year-ago quarter. 

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company’s investment portfolio aggregated $90.8 billion. This included $76.3 billion of Agency mortgage-backed securities, $13.8 billion net forward purchases/(sales) of Agency MBS in the "to-be-announced" market ("TBA securities"), and $0.7 billion of CRT and non-Agency securities and other mortgage credit investments.

Balance Sheet Position

As of Sept. 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $450 million, down 11.2% from the prior quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, AGNC Investment has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise AGNC Investment has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.