It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Matador Resources (MTDR Quick QuoteMTDR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Matador due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Matador Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat on Higher Production Volumes

Matador Resources reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.36 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.89.

Total revenues of $939 million topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $883 million. The top line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $899.8 million.

Better-than-expected quarterly results were driven by an increase in total production volumes. The positives were partially offset by lower oil price realizations and higher total operating expenses.

Upstream Business in Q3

Matador Resources is primarily involved in oil and gas exploration and production activities in the United States. The company’s overall financial performance is heavily dependent on the oil and gas pricing environment. Most of MTDR’s production comprises oil (57% of total third-quarter production), making this commodity’s price a major factor in determining the company’s earnings.

The average daily oil production was 119,556 barrels, reflecting a 2% increase from the anticipated figure. The company’s production volumes exceeded the guidance range, primarily due to the sustained outperformance of Matador’s producing wells and those brought into production in the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, MTDR’s Avalon wells in Lea County, New Mexico, contributed to the higher output.

Let us take a look at the average commodity sales price, along with production.

Average Sales Price of Commodities

The average sales price for oil (without realized derivatives) was $64.91 per barrel, down from $75.67 a year ago. The commodity price was also lower than our projection of $65.18 per barrel. The price of natural gas was $1.95 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), up from $1.83 in the year-ago quarter. However, the figure came in lower than our estimate of $2.81 per Mcf.

Upstream Production

Matador reported oil production of 119,556 barrels per day (Bbl/D), up from 100,315 Bbl/D in the prior-year quarter. The figure also beat our estimate of 117,879.6 Bbl/D. Natural gas production was recorded at 537.8 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/D), up from 427 MMcf/D recorded a year ago. The reported figure came in higher than our estimate of 494.7 MMcf/D.

The rise in total average production can be attributed to the sustained outperformance of the company’s existing wells and the new wells brought into production in the third quarter. Notably, Matador’s non-operated wells in the Haynesville shale, where the company mainly owns mineral interest, contributed to the production increase.

Total oil equivalent production in the third quarter was 209,184 BOE/D, reflecting a 22% increase from the year-ago quarter’s 171,480 BOE/D. The figure also exceeded our projection of 200,323.6 BOE/D.

Dividend Hike

Matador Resources announced a 20% increase to its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.3125 per share to $0.375 per share for the third quarter of 2025 (annualized dividend of $1.50). The dividend is payable on Dec. 5, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Nov. 10, 2025.

Operating Expenses

MTDR’s plant and other midstream services’ operating expenses decreased to $2.63 per BOE from the year-earlier level of $2.77. Our estimate for the same was pinned at $2.87.

Lease operating costs increased to $5.58 per BOE from $5.50 a year ago. Our projection for the metric was pinned at $5.52 per BOE. Production taxes, transportation and processing costs declined to $4.32 per BOE from $4.61 in the year-ago quarter. Our projection for the metric was pinned at $5.70 per BOE.

Overall, total operating expenses per BOE were $30.31, higher than the prior-year figure of $30.09 and also below our estimate of $31.64 per BOE.

Balance Sheet & Capital Spending

As of Sep. 30, 2025, MTDR had cash and restricted cash of $96.4 million and a long-term debt of $3,219.6 million. In the third quarter, the company spent $347.5 million on well drilling, completion and equipment.

Outlook

Matador Resources updated its full-year 2025 average daily oil equivalent production guidance to 205,500-206,500 BOE/d from 200,000-205,000 BOE/d. The company also expects average daily total production for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be 205,000-208,000 BOE/d. It has also increased its total 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $1.625-$1.725 billion. For 2026, the company has forecasted an organic increase in daily production to approximately 210,000 BOE. Matador expects oil production to grow 2-5% from 2025 to 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -15.03% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Matador has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Matador has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.