A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Capital One (COF Quick QuoteCOF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Capital One due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Capital One Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Capital One Q3 Earnings Beat as Discover Deal Drives NII and Fee Income

Capital One’s third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.95 per share widely surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.20. The bottom line also compared favorably with $5.48 in the prior quarter.

Results benefited from an increase in net interest income and non-interest income, and lower provisions. Also, higher loans and a stable deposit balance supported the performance. However, a rise in expenses was undermining the factor.

Results excluded several non-recurring items, including charges related to the Discover Financial acquisition. After considering these, net income available to common shareholders was $3.09 billion or $4.83 per share against a net loss of $4.34 billion or $8.58 per share in the last quarter.

Revenues Increase, Expenses Jump

Total net revenues were $15.36 billion, jumping 23% sequentially. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.9 billion.

NII surged 24% from the prior quarter to $12.4 billion. NIM expanded 74 basis points (bps) to 8.36%. 

Non-interest income of $2.96 billion grew 18%. The rise was driven by higher service charges and other customer-related fees, and discount and interchange fees, partially offset by a fall in other income. 

Non-interest expenses were $8.26 billion, up 18%. The rise was due to an increase in almost all cost components except professional services. Adjusted expenses were $7.42 billion, jumping 16%.

The efficiency ratio was 53.8%, up from 53.07% in the last quarter. A rise in the efficiency ratio indicates a deterioration in profitability.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, loans held for investment were $443.2 billion, up 1% from the prior-quarter end. Total deposits were $468.8 billion, relatively stable.

Credit Quality: A Mixed Bag

Provision for credit losses was $2.71 billion, a 76% fall from the prior quarter. Additionally, allowance, as a percentage of reported loans held for investment, was 5.21%, down 22 bps.

Further, the net charge-off rate declined 8 bps to 3.16%. On the other hand, the 30-plus-day-performing delinquency rate rose 16 bps sequentially to 3.29%.

Capital Ratios Improve

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 15.5%, up from 15.1% as of June 30, 2025. The common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.4%, improving from 14%.

Share Repurchase Update

In the reported quarter, the company repurchased 4.6 million shares for $1 billion.

Outlook

The integration cost from the Discover acquisition is expected to be slightly higher than the previously announced $2.8 billion. Capital One remains on track to deliver $2.5 billion in combined synergies.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 8.11% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Capital One has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Capital One has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.