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Can Cameco Maintain Momentum Despite McArthur River Issues?
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Key Takeaways
Cameco projects CAD 2.8-3.0B in 2025 uranium revenues on sale of 32-34M pounds at $87 per pound.
Output fell 13% YTD as McArthur River delays hit production, partly offset by Cigar Lake gains.
Cameco expects its share of production of up to 20M pounds.
Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) has projected an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. The range factors in uranium sales of 32-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound. Cameco delivered 33.6 million pounds at $58.34 per pound (CAD 79.70 per pound) in 2024.
Cameco has delivered 21.8 million pounds of uranium in the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025 and generated uranium revenues of CAD 1.847 billion at an average realized price of CAD 84.79 per pound ($60.39 per pound).
Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and a 54.547% stake in the Cigar Lake mine. CCJ’s attributable uranium production from these operations totaled 15 million pounds in the first nine months of 2025, down 13% year over year. Output at McArthur River mine was down 32%, offset by a 16% rise at Cigar Lake.
Production at McArthur River has been impacted primarily due to the delays in transitioning into new mining areas at McArthur River in 2025. As a result of these development delays at McArthur River, the Key Lake mill was shut down from Sept. 3 through Oct. 17, impacting production in the third quarter and the first nine months, and resulting in lower expected production for 2025.
Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine at 9.8-10.5 million pounds, for a total of up to 20 million pounds. Backed by the solid performance of the Cigar Lake mine and the McClean Lake mill so far, the company expects to exceed this target by up to 1 million pounds and help offset some of the production shortfall at McArthur River.
The company also plans to make market purchases of up to 1 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the third quarter was 10 million pounds.
Among peers, Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) sold 150,000 pounds of uranium on the spot market in the first nine-month period of 2025 for a weighted average realized sales price of $76.67 per pound for realized sales of $11.50 million. Energy Fuels also sold 140,000 pounds of uranium under its long-term utility contracts at a price of $69.43 per pound for realized sales of $9.72 million.
Under the current portfolio of contracts, Energy Fuels expects to sell 160,000 pounds of uranium in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company plans sales between 620,000 and 880,000 pounds of uranium in 2026.
Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) sold 810,000 pounds of uranium at an average price of around $82.52 per pound in fiscal 2025 (ended July 31, 2025). As of fiscal 2025-end, Uranium Energy held 1.36 million pounds of uranium in inventory, valued at $96.6 million (at the current market prices). This excludes approximately 130,000 pounds of initial Wyoming production. Uranium Energy expects its warehouse inventory to expand another 300,000 pounds through December 2025, thanks to purchase contracts priced at $37.05 per pound, in addition to new production from operations.
CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 67.8% compared with the industry’s 21.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.03 compared with the industry’s 1.42.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 104%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 38%. The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 has moved down over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Image: Bigstock
Can Cameco Maintain Momentum Despite McArthur River Issues?
Key Takeaways
Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) has projected an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. The range factors in uranium sales of 32-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound. Cameco delivered 33.6 million pounds at $58.34 per pound (CAD 79.70 per pound) in 2024.
Cameco has delivered 21.8 million pounds of uranium in the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025 and generated uranium revenues of CAD 1.847 billion at an average realized price of CAD 84.79 per pound ($60.39 per pound).
Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and a 54.547% stake in the Cigar Lake mine. CCJ’s attributable uranium production from these operations totaled 15 million pounds in the first nine months of 2025, down 13% year over year. Output at McArthur River mine was down 32%, offset by a 16% rise at Cigar Lake.
Production at McArthur River has been impacted primarily due to the delays in transitioning into new mining areas at McArthur River in 2025. As a result of these development delays at McArthur River, the Key Lake mill was shut down from Sept. 3 through Oct. 17, impacting production in the third quarter and the first nine months, and resulting in lower expected production for 2025.
Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine at 9.8-10.5 million pounds, for a total of up to 20 million pounds. Backed by the solid performance of the Cigar Lake mine and the McClean Lake mill so far, the company expects to exceed this target by up to 1 million pounds and help offset some of the production shortfall at McArthur River.
The company also plans to make market purchases of up to 1 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the third quarter was 10 million pounds.
Among peers, Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) sold 150,000 pounds of uranium on the spot market in the first nine-month period of 2025 for a weighted average realized sales price of $76.67 per pound for realized sales of $11.50 million. Energy Fuels also sold 140,000 pounds of uranium under its long-term utility contracts at a price of $69.43 per pound for realized sales of $9.72 million.
Under the current portfolio of contracts, Energy Fuels expects to sell 160,000 pounds of uranium in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company plans sales between 620,000 and 880,000 pounds of uranium in 2026.
Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) sold 810,000 pounds of uranium at an average price of around $82.52 per pound in fiscal 2025 (ended July 31, 2025).
As of fiscal 2025-end, Uranium Energy held 1.36 million pounds of uranium in inventory, valued at $96.6 million (at the current market prices). This excludes approximately 130,000 pounds of initial Wyoming production. Uranium Energy expects its warehouse inventory to expand another 300,000 pounds through December 2025, thanks to purchase contracts priced at $37.05 per pound, in addition to new production from operations.
CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 67.8% compared with the industry’s 21.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.03 compared with the industry’s 1.42.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 104%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 38%. The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 has moved down over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.