It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Unum (UNM Quick QuoteUNM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Unum due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Unum Group before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Unum Group Q3 Earnings Miss on Higher Expenses, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Unum Group’s third-quarter 2025 operating net income of $2.09 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line decreased 1.8% year over year. The quarterly results reflected higher premium income, solid performance at Colonial Life, in-force block growth, and favorable persistency in the Unum U.K., offset by escalating expenses.

Operational Update         

Total operating revenues of Unum Group were $3.4 billion, up 5% year over year, driven by higher premium income and other income. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%. Premium increased 2.2% from the prior-year quarter to $2.7 billion, which matched our estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Total benefits and expenses increased 38.3% year over year to $3.3 billion, largely attributable to higher policy benefits, including remeasurement loss or gain, commissions, interest, and debt expense, and other expenses. Our estimate for the same was $2.8 billion.

Quarterly Segment Update

Unum U.S.: Premium income was $1.7 billion, up 1.9% year over year. 
Adjusted operating income declined 7.8% year over year to $334.9 million. It excludes the amortization of the deferred gain on reinsurance of $4.6 million, the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance of $0.4 million, as well as the net reserve decrease related to the assumption updates of $147.7 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $337 million. Our estimate was $401.1 million.

Unum International: Premium income of $281.1 million increased 14% year over year.  Adjusted operating income was $38.8 million, down 3.7% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $40.7 million. Our estimate was $34.1 million.

The Unum U.K. line of business premium income was £171 million, up 7.6% from the year-ago quarter due primarily to in-force block growth, sales, and favorable persistency in the group life and supplemental product lines. Adjusted operating income, in local currency, of £26.3 million was down 10.8% year over year.

The benefit ratio, excluding the reserve assumption updates, was 73.8%, which deteriorated 430 basis points (bps), due primarily to unfavorable benefit experience in the group long-term disability product line and higher inflation-linked experience in benefits. It was partially offset by favorable incidence in the group life product line. Sales increased 27.3% to £29.4 million. For the first nine months of 2025, persistency remained flat year over year in the group long-term disability, while it increased in the supplemental product line and group life product line of business.

Colonial Life: Premium income increased 3.3% from the prior-year figure to $456.5 million, driven by favorable overall persistency and prior period sales.  
Sales decreased 3.1% from the year-ago figure to $124.6 million. Adjusted operating income increased 2.8% from the prior-year period to $116.6 million. Our estimate was $157.8 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $127 million. Persistency was 78.7% in the first nine months of 2025, which expanded 70 bps year over year. The benefit ratio, excluding the reserve assumption updates, deteriorated 60 bps year over year to 48.2%.

Closed Block: Adjusted operating income was $14.1 million, which declined 58.7% year over year. The adjusted operating income excludes the amortization of the cost of reinsurance of $48.6 million and the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance of $7.3 million, as well as the net reserve increase related to the assumption updates of $640.5 million. Our estimate was $65.1 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $25 million.

Corporate: The segment incurred an adjusted operating loss of $47.7 million, narrower than the year-ago quarter’s loss of $49.4 million, which excludes the loss on legal settlement of $15.3 million. The lower loss was due primarily to increased net investment income. It was due to an increase in the level of invested assets and a rise in the yield on invested assets. Our estimate for loss was $45.8 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at a loss of $38.8 million.

Capital Management

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the weighted average risk-based capital ratio for Unum Group’s traditional U.S. insurance companies was approximately 455%. Unum Group exited the third quarter with holding company liquidity worth $2 billion. Book value per share grew 8.7% year over year to $64.56 as of Sept. 30, 2025.
UNM bought back 3.2 shares for $253.3 million. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Unum has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Unum has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.