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Ovintiv (OVV) Up 15.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ovintiv (OVV - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ovintiv due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Ovintiv reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. The outperformance was driven by higher plant condensate production volumes and higher average realized natural gas prices. However, the bottom line decreased from the year-ago level of $1.85.
The Denver, CO-based oil and gas exploration and production company’s total revenues of $2.1 billion decreased 11% from the year-ago quarter’s figure due to lower oil production volumes and lower average realized oil and plant condensate prices. However, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.1%.
Ovintiv's board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share, which will be paid on Dec. 31, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025.
The company achieved higher-than-expected total average production in the third quarter, exceeding its guidance for all product types, including oil and condensate, other NGLs and natural gas.
Ovintiv lowered its net debt by $126 million during the quarter, ending with an outstanding balance of approximately $5.2 billion. The company returned a combined $235 million to its shareholders through regular dividend payouts and share repurchases.
Ovintiv also obtained regulatory approval to renew its NCIB program, allowing the repurchase of up to approximately 22.3 million common shares over the next 12 months.
On Nov. 4, 2025, Ovintiv announced the plans to acquire NuVista in a $2.7 billion cash-and-stock deal, adding 140,000 net acres, about 930 well locations and approximately 100 MBOE/d 2026 output in the Montney Inventory. The deal, which has been unanimously approved by the board of directors of both Ovintiv and NuVista, is expected to close by the first quarter of 2026. Ovintiv also announced plans to divest its Anadarko asset, with proceeds planned for faster debt reduction.
Production & Prices
Total third-quarter production was 630,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) compared with 592,600 BOE/d in the prior-year period. Moreover, the figure beat our prediction of 623,700 BOE/d.
Natural gas production increased to 1,925 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in the third quarter of 2025 from 1,725 MMcf/d in the prior-year quarter. Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 1,919.2 MMcf/d.
Total liquids production increased to 309.5 thousand barrels per day (Mbbls/d) in the third quarter of 2025 from 305 Mbbls/d in the prior-year quarter. Furthermore, the figure beat our prediction of 303.8 Mbbls/d.
In the third quarter of 2025, natural gas contributed approximately 50.9% and liquids accounted for about 49.1% of the total production.
Ovintiv's realized natural gas price was $2.01 per thousand cubic feet compared with the year-ago level of $1.88. The realized oil price decreased to $66.51 per barrel from $73.23 in the prior year quarter.
Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet
Total expenses of $1.8 billion decreased marginally by $4 million from the year-ago quarter’s figure. However, the figure was higher than our projection of $1.5 billion.
Ovintiv’s cash from operating activities in the quarter under review was $812 million, compared to the year-ago figure of $1 billion.
Ovintiv's capital investments were $544 million compared with $538 million in the year-ago period. The company generated a non-GAAP free cash flow of $351 million in the reported quarter.
As of Sept. 30, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $25 million and long-term debt of $4.4 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 30%.
Asset Performance
In the third quarter, average production from the Permian Basin reached approximately 210 MBOE/d, with liquids making up 79% of the total. A total of 30 net wells were brought online during the period. For the full year, capital spending in this region is projected to be between $1.20 billion and $1.25 billion, supporting the development of around 130-140 net wells.
From the Montney play, third-quarter output averaged 318 MBOE/d, with liquids contributing about 26% of the volume. The company turned in 19 net wells during the quarter. Full-year capital expenditures for Montney are expected to be between $575 million and $625 million, which is anticipated to fund 75-85 net well additions.
In the Anadarko Basin, production during the third quarter was 102 MBOE/d, with a liquid mix of 60%. The company brought 14 net wells into production. Annual capital investment in Anadarko is estimated between $290 million and $310 million, aimed at bringing 37 net wells online.
Q4 and 2025 Guidance
Ovintiv expects its total production for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be between 610 MBOE/d and 630 MBOE/d. This includes oil and condensate production between 203 Mbbls/d and 209 Mbbls/d, natural gas liquids production of 95-99 Mbbls/d and natural gas production between 1,875 MMcf/d and 1,925 MMcf/d. Capital investment for the fourth quarter is projected between $440 million and $490 million.
The company has reaffirmed its full-year capital guidance while raising its production estimate. For 2025, Ovintiv anticipates total production to average between 610 MBOE/d and 620 MBOE/d. Full-year oil and condensate production is expected to range from 208 Mbbls/d to 210 Mbbls/d, while NGLs production is projected between 94 Mbbls/d and 96 Mbbls/d. Natural gas production for the year is estimated to be between 1,850 MMcf/d and 1,870 MMcf/d. The company expects its capital investment for the full year to be between $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -10.87% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ovintiv has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ovintiv has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Ovintiv (OVV) Up 15.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ovintiv (OVV - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ovintiv due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Ovintiv Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y
Ovintiv reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. The outperformance was driven by higher plant condensate production volumes and higher average realized natural gas prices. However, the bottom line decreased from the year-ago level of $1.85.
The Denver, CO-based oil and gas exploration and production company’s total revenues of $2.1 billion decreased 11% from the year-ago quarter’s figure due to lower oil production volumes and lower average realized oil and plant condensate prices. However, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.1%.
Ovintiv's board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share, which will be paid on Dec. 31, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025.
The company achieved higher-than-expected total average production in the third quarter, exceeding its guidance for all product types, including oil and condensate, other NGLs and natural gas.
Ovintiv lowered its net debt by $126 million during the quarter, ending with an outstanding balance of approximately $5.2 billion. The company returned a combined $235 million to its shareholders through regular dividend payouts and share repurchases.
Ovintiv also obtained regulatory approval to renew its NCIB program, allowing the repurchase of up to approximately 22.3 million common shares over the next 12 months.
On Nov. 4, 2025, Ovintiv announced the plans to acquire NuVista in a $2.7 billion cash-and-stock deal, adding 140,000 net acres, about 930 well locations and approximately 100 MBOE/d 2026 output in the Montney Inventory. The deal, which has been unanimously approved by the board of directors of both Ovintiv and NuVista, is expected to close by the first quarter of 2026. Ovintiv also announced plans to divest its Anadarko asset, with proceeds planned for faster debt reduction.
Production & Prices
Total third-quarter production was 630,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) compared with 592,600 BOE/d in the prior-year period. Moreover, the figure beat our prediction of 623,700 BOE/d.
Natural gas production increased to 1,925 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in the third quarter of 2025 from 1,725 MMcf/d in the prior-year quarter. Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 1,919.2 MMcf/d.
Total liquids production increased to 309.5 thousand barrels per day (Mbbls/d) in the third quarter of 2025 from 305 Mbbls/d in the prior-year quarter. Furthermore, the figure beat our prediction of 303.8 Mbbls/d.
In the third quarter of 2025, natural gas contributed approximately 50.9% and liquids accounted for about 49.1% of the total production.
Ovintiv's realized natural gas price was $2.01 per thousand cubic feet compared with the year-ago level of $1.88. The realized oil price decreased to $66.51 per barrel from $73.23 in the prior year quarter.
Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet
Total expenses of $1.8 billion decreased marginally by $4 million from the year-ago quarter’s figure. However, the figure was higher than our projection of $1.5 billion.
Ovintiv’s cash from operating activities in the quarter under review was $812 million, compared to the year-ago figure of $1 billion.
Ovintiv's capital investments were $544 million compared with $538 million in the year-ago period. The company generated a non-GAAP free cash flow of $351 million in the reported quarter.
As of Sept. 30, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $25 million and long-term debt of $4.4 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 30%.
Asset Performance
In the third quarter, average production from the Permian Basin reached approximately 210 MBOE/d, with liquids making up 79% of the total. A total of 30 net wells were brought online during the period. For the full year, capital spending in this region is projected to be between $1.20 billion and $1.25 billion, supporting the development of around 130-140 net wells.
From the Montney play, third-quarter output averaged 318 MBOE/d, with liquids contributing about 26% of the volume. The company turned in 19 net wells during the quarter. Full-year capital expenditures for Montney are expected to be between $575 million and $625 million, which is anticipated to fund 75-85 net well additions.
In the Anadarko Basin, production during the third quarter was 102 MBOE/d, with a liquid mix of 60%. The company brought 14 net wells into production. Annual capital investment in Anadarko is estimated between $290 million and $310 million, aimed at bringing 37 net wells online.
Q4 and 2025 Guidance
Ovintiv expects its total production for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be between 610 MBOE/d and 630 MBOE/d. This includes oil and condensate production between 203 Mbbls/d and 209 Mbbls/d, natural gas liquids production of 95-99 Mbbls/d and natural gas production between 1,875 MMcf/d and 1,925 MMcf/d. Capital investment for the fourth quarter is projected between $440 million and $490 million.
The company has reaffirmed its full-year capital guidance while raising its production estimate. For 2025, Ovintiv anticipates total production to average between 610 MBOE/d and 620 MBOE/d. Full-year oil and condensate production is expected to range from 208 Mbbls/d to 210 Mbbls/d, while NGLs production is projected between 94 Mbbls/d and 96 Mbbls/d. Natural gas production for the year is estimated to be between 1,850 MMcf/d and 1,870 MMcf/d. The company expects its capital investment for the full year to be between $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -10.87% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ovintiv has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ovintiv has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.