It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM Quick QuoteADM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ADM due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Archer Daniels Midland Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

ADM Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase 2.2% Y/Y

Archer Daniels Midland posted third-quarter 2025 results, wherein the top line fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate but increased year over year. Meanwhile, earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate but declined from the same period last year.

Adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents. However, the figure decreased from adjusted earnings of $1.09 per share in the year-ago quarter. On a reported basis, Archer Daniels’ third-quarter earnings were 22 cents per share, up from 4 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues gained 2.2% year over year to $20.4 billion, but missed the consensus estimate of $20.7 billion. 

Segment-wise, revenues for Ag Services & Oilseeds increased 3.5% year over year to $15.6 billion, while Carbohydrate Solutions’ revenues decreased 5.9% year over year to $2.7 billion. Nutrition’s revenues rose 4.6% year over year to $1.92 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segments’ revenues was pegged at $15.7 billion, $2.9 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. Revenues from Other Business are flat at $109 million compared with the figure in the prior-year period.

The gross profit decreased 7% year over year to $1.3 billion, while the gross margin stood at 6.2%. Selling, general and administrative expenses declined to $873 million from $905 million in the year-ago quarter.

Archer Daniels reported adjusted segmental operating profit of $845 million, down 19% from the year-ago quarter. The company has a trailing four-quarter return on invested capital of 6.7% on an adjusted basis.

ADM’s Segmental Operating Profit

Adjusted operating profit for Ag Services & Oilseeds dropped 21% year over year to $379 million. The Ag Services subsegment’s operating profit rose 78%, driven by higher export activity in North America and improved results in South America. This quarter included $4 million in net positive mark-to-market (MTM) impacts, versus $50 million in net negative impacts a year earlier.

The Crushing subsegment’s operating profit plunged 93% year over year on lower margins resulting from muted demand tied to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy and international trade challenges. There were about $41 million of net positive mark-to-market timing impacts in the quarter against zero of net negative impacts in the year-ago quarter.

Refined Products and Other operating profit was down 3% from the prior year, as biodiesel and refining margins were affected by the delayed biofuel policy, weighing on North American demand. The quarter included $8 million in net negative MTM impacts, versus $20 million in the prior-year period. Equity earnings from the company’s investment in Wilmar decreased by approximately 10% from the prior-year quarter.

The Carbohydrate Solutions segment posted an operating profit of $336 million in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a 26% decline from the year-ago period. Operating profit in the Starches & Sweeteners subsegment also fell 36% due to lower global S&S demand, which pressured both volumes and margins. The subsegment also continued to face higher corn costs in EMEA stemming from corn quality issues, further weighing on profitability.

Global wheat milling performance remained relatively stable versus the prior-year quarter, though last year’s results had benefited from $47 million in insurance proceeds, amplifying the year-over-year comparison. Vantage Corn Processors posted a $46 million increase in operating profit, supported by strong export flows and elevated pricing amid lower industry inventory levels caused by plant downtime from maintenance programs.

The Nutrition segment reported an operating profit of $130 million in the third quarter of 2025, marking a 24% increase from the same period last year. Operating profit in the Human Nutrition subsegment gained 12% year over year. Within this segment, Flavors saw profit growth, driven by higher margins, particularly in North America. The Health & Wellness category also contributed to the increase, benefiting from stronger biotics demand.

Meanwhile, the Animal Nutrition subsegment posted an operating profit of $34 million, marking a 79% year-over-year upsurge, fueled by margin expansion from a strategic focus on higher-value product lines and continued portfolio streamlining and cost optimization initiatives.

Archer Daniels’ Other Financials

The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.24 billion, long-term debt, including current maturities, of $7.6 billion, and shareholders’ equity of $22.5 billion. As of Sept. 30, 2025, ADM generated $5.77 billion in cash from operating activities. It paid out dividends of $743 million during the nine months of 2025. For 2025, based on performance over the first nine months of the year and current expectations regarding the timing of anticipated benefits from favorable biofuel policy developments and the evolution of global trade dynamics, the company has revised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Adjusted earnings are now expected to be in the range of $3.25 to $3.50 per share, compared to the previous guidance of approximately $4.00.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -13.16% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, ADM has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise ADM has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

ADM belongs to the Zacks Agriculture - Operations industry. Another stock from the same industry, FMC (FMC Quick QuoteFMC - Free Report) , has gained 1.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.

FMC reported revenues of $961.3 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -9.8%. EPS of $0.89 for the same period compares with $0.69 a year ago.

For the current quarter, FMC is expected to post earnings of $1.26 per share, indicating a change of -29.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for FMC. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.