We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
CF (CF) Down 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Read MoreHide Full Article
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries' Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.19 per share, up from $1.55 in the year-ago quarter. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06.
Net sales rose around 21.2% year over year to $1,659 million in the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,665 million.
In the third quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, and higher global energy costs. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower beginning inventories.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 29.5% to $457 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $368.3 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 9% year over year to $423 million, outpacing our estimate of $363.5 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 27.3% year over year to $517 million, beating our estimate of $377.4 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in the first nine months of 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment rose around 15% year over year to $122 million, beating our estimate of $82.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in first nine months of 2025 from a year ago, primarily due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Financials
As of Sept. 30, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.84 billion, down 2.08% year over year. Long-term debt was roughly $2.97 billion, flat year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.06 billion in the reported quarter, up nearly 14.3% year over year.
The company repurchased 4.3 million shares for $364 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Outlook
The global nitrogen outlook remains positive through 2025 and beyond, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India, Brazil, and North America are driving robust fertilizer consumption, while inventories remain below average despite resumed Chinese exports, per the company. Supply constraints from high energy costs and limited gas availability continue to pressure producers in Europe and Asia. Growing demand for low-carbon ammonia further strengthens the market. With energy cost advantages favoring North American producers and limited new capacity additions, the global nitrogen balance is expected to tighten, supporting firm pricing and margins in the years ahead.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 17.45% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
CF (CF) Down 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries' Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.19 per share, up from $1.55 in the year-ago quarter. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06.
Net sales rose around 21.2% year over year to $1,659 million in the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,665 million.
In the third quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, and higher global energy costs. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower beginning inventories.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 29.5% to $457 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $368.3 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 9% year over year to $423 million, outpacing our estimate of $363.5 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in the first nine months of 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 27.3% year over year to $517 million, beating our estimate of $377.4 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in the first nine months of 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment rose around 15% year over year to $122 million, beating our estimate of $82.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in first nine months of 2025 from a year ago, primarily due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Financials
As of Sept. 30, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.84 billion, down 2.08% year over year. Long-term debt was roughly $2.97 billion, flat year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.06 billion in the reported quarter, up nearly 14.3% year over year.
The company repurchased 4.3 million shares for $364 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Outlook
The global nitrogen outlook remains positive through 2025 and beyond, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India, Brazil, and North America are driving robust fertilizer consumption, while inventories remain below average despite resumed Chinese exports, per the company. Supply constraints from high energy costs and limited gas availability continue to pressure producers in Europe and Asia. Growing demand for low-carbon ammonia further strengthens the market. With energy cost advantages favoring North American producers and limited new capacity additions, the global nitrogen balance is expected to tighten, supporting firm pricing and margins in the years ahead.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 17.45% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.