The artificial intelligence (AI) behemoth and the chip giant NVIDIA Corp.’s (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report) stock has gained about 34% so far this year. The returns are solid but not great, as the stock has surged about 1150% since the start of 2023.

Since then, the stock has seen an immensely sharp and steady momentum on the AI boom, but hit a roadblock in early 2025 due to Trump’s tariff concerns. However, the slip was momentary as the NVDA stock rebounded from late April 2025.

Let’s find out what awaits NVDA shares in 2026.

NVIDIA’s Upbeat Quarter Lifts Sentiment

For the quarter ending in October, NVIDIA posted $57 billion in revenue, marking a 62% uptick from a year earlier. The surge was driven by huge demand for its chips used in AI data centers, with that division’s sales surging 66% to more than $51 billion. “Blackwell [chip] sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

For Q3, NVIDIA saw earnings per share (EPS) of $1.30 on revenues of $57.01 billion. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 per share while revenues beat the estimate by 4.14%.  The company recorded EPS and revenues of $0.81 and $35.1 billion, respectively, in the year-ago quarter. The company’s data center business brought in $51.2 billion versus the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $49.3 billion, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Its upbeat fourth-quarter guidance reassured investors about continued AI demand. NVIDIA expects revenues to be $65.0 billion, plus or minus 2% for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. The guidance beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $60.30 billion.

$500 Billion in AI Chip Orders: More on the Way

NVIDIA chief Huang earlier projected $500 billion in AI chip orders through next year. CFO Colette Kress recently told analysts that NVIDIA would “probably” take additional orders beyond the initial $500 billion, as mentioned in the BBC article.

NVIDIA’s influence extends far beyond chips. The company is at the core of a growing network of financial ties among AI leaders such as OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI.

Trump Approves Sale of NVIDIA’s H200 Chips to China

President Trump announced on Dec.8, 2025, that he will authorize NVIDIA to sell its more advanced H200 AI chips to China. The decision follows Trump’s earlier move to lift limits on NVIDIA’s China-only H20 chips — a lower-powered version.

China, however, halted imports of these reduced-performance units, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. NVIDIA previously voiced concern about U.S. export restrictions limiting chip sales to China. With those hurdles now off the radar, NVDA shares should gain.

Increased Revenue Share for the U.S.

Trump added that NVIDIA will now remit 25% of revenues from chip sales to China to the U.S. government, up from the previously proposed 15%, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. NVIDIA chief Huang has indicated that U.S. participation in China’s AI ecosystem is crucial, especially given that the country is home to nearly half of the world’s AI programmers. With the government’s support seemingly behind NVIDIA, the days ahead should be rosy for the chipmaker.

Time to Buy NVDA-Heavy ETFs?

NVIDIA has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). NVIDIA currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.16 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell etc.) made by 49 brokerage firms. The current ABR compares to an ABR of 1.29 a month ago based on 48 recommendations.

Of the 49 recommendations deriving from the current ABR, 45 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 91.84% and 4.08% of all recommendations. A month ago, Strong Buy made up 85.42%, while Buy represented 4.17%.

It comes from a top-ranked Zacks Industry (top 14%) and Zacks-Sector (top 6%). Based on short-term price targets offered by 45 analysts, the average price target for Nvidia comes to $252.67. The forecasts range from a low of $140.00 to a high of $352.00. The average price target represents an increase of 36.17% from the closing price of $185.55 recorded on Dec. 8, 2025.

The mix of bullish ratings and industry ranks (mentioned above), along with upbeat results and increased revenue sharing with the government, strengthens the case for investing in NVIDIA ETFs, mentioned below. The ETF approach lessens the company-specific concentration risks.

NVIDIA-heavy ETFs include VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH Quick QuoteSMH - Free Report) , Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SHOC Quick QuoteSHOC - Free Report) and VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX Quick QuoteSMHX - Free Report) .