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Can NVO Defend Its Obesity Lead as GLP-1 Competition Intensifies?
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Key Takeaways
NVO's semaglutide sales have slowed amid pricing pressure and rising GLP-1 competition.
GPCR's aleniglipron hit key phase IIb goals with up to 15.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss.
Novo Nordisk is advancing CagriSema, cagrilintide, amycretin, and monlunabant to defend its lead.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) is a dominant player in the cardiometabolic space, marketing its blockbuster semaglutide-based (GLP-1) drugs — Ozempic (for diabetes) and Wegovy (for obesity). Despite being NVO’s key growth drivers, sales momentum for both drugs has slowed in recent quarters due to pricing pressure, intensifying GLP-1 competition from Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , foreign exchange headwinds, and widespread compounded semaglutide use in the United States.
Adding to the pressure, several smaller biotech players are advancing rapidly in the obesity arena, attracted by the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Earlier this week, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) reported positive top-line data from the ACCESS clinical program of its investigational candidate, aleniglipron, for treating obesity.
In the core 36-week phase IIb ACCESS study, GPCR’s aleniglipron met its primary and all key secondary endpoints, with the 120 mg dose delivering an 11.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss. Higher doses drove deeper reductions, reaching 15.3% at 240 mg. Extension data showed continued weight loss through 44 weeks with no plateau, supporting durability and advancement to phase III.
Structure Therapeutics is gearing up to initiate late-stage studies of aleniglipron for obesity around mid-2026, pending alignment with the FDA. Shares of NVO were down following the news, signaling investor concerns amid the intensifying competitive landscape. GPCR is also building depth in its obesity pipeline, with ANPA-0073 currently awaiting initiation of mid-stage development, alongside several preclinical programs.
To address this, Novo Nordisk is advancing a slate of next-generation obesity candidates while pursuing label expansions for its semaglutide franchise. The most advanced candidate in Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is CagriSema injection, a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and Wegovy. CagriSema achieved statistically significant weight loss in two late-stage studies, REDEFINE 1 and REDEFINE 2, but delivered efficacy that was less than expected. Novo Nordisk plans to file for its regulatory application in 2026.
The company also reported superior weight loss from a sub-analysis of its phase III REDEFINE 1 study, which tested cagrilintide injection as a monotherapy in obese adults, but without diabetes. A dedicated phase III RENEW program for cagrilintide is planned to start soon. NVO is developing oral and subcutaneous formulations of a mid-stage candidate, amycretin, for obesity and diabetes indications. Novo Nordisk is also developing oral monlunabant in a mid-stage obesity study. The company recently signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing and commercializing oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases.
Overall, while intensifying GLP-1 competition and slowing semaglutide momentum pose near-term challenges, Novo Nordisk’s ability to defend its obesity lead in the long term will likely hinge on the clinical and commercial success of its next-generation obesity pipeline as emerging rivals continue to close the gap.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the obesity space, markets its tirzepatide medicines as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Like NVO, Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG triagonist, along with some mid-stage candidates, bimagrumab, eloralintide, and mazdutide. LLY plans to file regulatory applications for orforglipron in obesity soon, setting up the timeline for a potential launch next year.
Another small biotech company making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in its clinical pipeline is Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) . VKTX’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In June, Viking Therapeutics started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. While one of these studies recently completed enrolment at a rapid pace, VKTX expects to complete enrolment in the other study by early 2026.
NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates
In the past year, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 58.5% against the industry’s 7.1% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 12.73 forward earnings, which is lower than 16.48 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.
NVO Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.66 to $3.58 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings estimates have declined from $3.91 to $3.65.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Image: Shutterstock
Can NVO Defend Its Obesity Lead as GLP-1 Competition Intensifies?
Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) is a dominant player in the cardiometabolic space, marketing its blockbuster semaglutide-based (GLP-1) drugs — Ozempic (for diabetes) and Wegovy (for obesity). Despite being NVO’s key growth drivers, sales momentum for both drugs has slowed in recent quarters due to pricing pressure, intensifying GLP-1 competition from Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , foreign exchange headwinds, and widespread compounded semaglutide use in the United States.
Adding to the pressure, several smaller biotech players are advancing rapidly in the obesity arena, attracted by the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Earlier this week, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) reported positive top-line data from the ACCESS clinical program of its investigational candidate, aleniglipron, for treating obesity.
In the core 36-week phase IIb ACCESS study, GPCR’s aleniglipron met its primary and all key secondary endpoints, with the 120 mg dose delivering an 11.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss. Higher doses drove deeper reductions, reaching 15.3% at 240 mg. Extension data showed continued weight loss through 44 weeks with no plateau, supporting durability and advancement to phase III.
Structure Therapeutics is gearing up to initiate late-stage studies of aleniglipron for obesity around mid-2026, pending alignment with the FDA. Shares of NVO were down following the news, signaling investor concerns amid the intensifying competitive landscape. GPCR is also building depth in its obesity pipeline, with ANPA-0073 currently awaiting initiation of mid-stage development, alongside several preclinical programs.
To address this, Novo Nordisk is advancing a slate of next-generation obesity candidates while pursuing label expansions for its semaglutide franchise. The most advanced candidate in Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is CagriSema injection, a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and Wegovy. CagriSema achieved statistically significant weight loss in two late-stage studies, REDEFINE 1 and REDEFINE 2, but delivered efficacy that was less than expected. Novo Nordisk plans to file for its regulatory application in 2026.
The company also reported superior weight loss from a sub-analysis of its phase III REDEFINE 1 study, which tested cagrilintide injection as a monotherapy in obese adults, but without diabetes. A dedicated phase III RENEW program for cagrilintide is planned to start soon. NVO is developing oral and subcutaneous formulations of a mid-stage candidate, amycretin, for obesity and diabetes indications. Novo Nordisk is also developing oral monlunabant in a mid-stage obesity study. The company recently signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing and commercializing oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases.
Overall, while intensifying GLP-1 competition and slowing semaglutide momentum pose near-term challenges, Novo Nordisk’s ability to defend its obesity lead in the long term will likely hinge on the clinical and commercial success of its next-generation obesity pipeline as emerging rivals continue to close the gap.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the obesity space, markets its tirzepatide medicines as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Like NVO, Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG triagonist, along with some mid-stage candidates, bimagrumab, eloralintide, and mazdutide. LLY plans to file regulatory applications for orforglipron in obesity soon, setting up the timeline for a potential launch next year.
Another small biotech company making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in its clinical pipeline is Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) . VKTX’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In June, Viking Therapeutics started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. While one of these studies recently completed enrolment at a rapid pace, VKTX expects to complete enrolment in the other study by early 2026.
NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates
In the past year, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 58.5% against the industry’s 7.1% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 12.73 forward earnings, which is lower than 16.48 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.
NVO Stock Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.66 to $3.58 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings estimates have declined from $3.91 to $3.65.
NVO Estimate Movement
Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.