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Can ExxonMobil Weather the Prevailing Softness in Oil Price?

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Key Takeaways

  • Lower WTI prices near $56 per barrel are hurting upstream-heavy earnings at XOM.
  • XOM's low 13.6% debt-to-capitalization gives ExxonMobil flexibility in a weak pricing environment.
  • Shares of XOM rose 15.4% in a year and trade at a higher EV/EBITDA than the industry.

According to data from OilPrice.com, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is slightly above $56 per barrel, down significantly from about $70 per barrel a year ago. This is hurting the upstream business of integrated energy players like Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) . With XOM generating a king's size of its earnings from upstream operations, can it combat the prevailing weakness in oil prices?

The advantageous assets where XOM is operating include the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, and offshore Guyana resources. Although the assets have cost advantages, lower oil prices are likely to hurt profits. But, unlike many other companies, ExxonMobil has a strong balance sheet.

XOM’s debt to capitalization of 13.6% is significantly lower than 28.7% of the industry’s composite stocks. Thus, the integrated energy giant can rely on its strong financials to navigate the low pricing environment, such as securing debt capital on favorable terms when the business scenario turns unfavorable.

CVX & EOG Can Also Brave Business Uncertainty

Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) and EOG Resources Inc (EOG - Free Report) are two leading energy companies with a strong presence in exploration and production activities. Thus, the softness in crude prices is also hurting the bottom line of both CVX and EOG.

However, like XOM, CVX and EOG also have strong balance sheets. Debt to capitalization of Chevron and EOG are 17.52% and 20.26%, respectively, suggesting a considerably lower exposure to debt capital. Hence, they can brave the uncertainty of the business environment.

XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of XOM have gained 15.4% over the past year compared with the 13.7% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

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From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.62X. This is above the broader industry average of 4.69X.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM’s 2025 earnings has seen no revisions over the past seven days.

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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