NEM vs. KGC: Which Gold Mining Stock Is Worth Betting on Now?

Anindya Barman December 22, 2025

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Key Takeaways

NEM's expansion through projects, Tier-1 focus and strong free cash flow support shareholder returns.
Kinross is advancing growth projects while reducing debt and boosting liquidity.
Both NEM and KGC outpaced the industry with rising estimates, fueled by record-high gold prices.

Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) are two prominent players in the gold mining space with global operations and diversified portfolios. The strength in gold prices persists amid expectations of further interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

Bullion prices have rallied to record highs this year, primarily attributable to aggressive trade policies. These include the sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, apprehending risks arising from Trump’s policies.

Prices of the yellow metal have surged roughly 65% this year. Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction and hopes of more rate cuts amid signs of U.S. economic weakness and concerns over the labor market also contributed to the record upswing in bullion prices, driving prices north of $4,000 per ton for the first time. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the December FOMC meeting, marking the third rate cut of the year, but signaled a potential pause in future reductions. Increased purchases by central banks, expectations of more rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to help the yellow metal sustain the uptick in gold prices.

Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two mining giants to determine which one is a better investment now.

The Case for Newmont

Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.

NEM, in October 2025, achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Production is expected to be 50,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity in 2026.

Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM completed its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, with the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada. NEM has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources Limited and Discovery Silver Corp, for total cash proceeds of around $470 million after taxes and commissions.

Following the sale of these shares, the company anticipates generating $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its 2025 divestiture program. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.

Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Newmont had robust liquidity of $9.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $5.6 billion. Its free cash flow more than doubled year to year to a record $1.6 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities shot up 40% from the prior-year quarter to $2.3 billion.

NEM has distributed more than $5.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the past two years. It also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $2 billion in the third quarter, resulting in a near-zero net debt position at the end of the quarter. Newmont has repurchased shares worth $2.1 billion this year, executing $3.3 billion from $6 billion of authorization.

NEM offers a dividend yield of 1% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.

Newmont, however, saw lower gold production for the third quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the third quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. The lower production was due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the end of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. NEM’s strategic asset sales, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, have also weighed on production.

Newmont anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the fourth quarter, the company expects attributable production to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new production from Ahafo North and increased output from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture are expected to be offset by lower production at Yanacocha and lower grades at Ahafo South. NEM expects fourth-quarter production of 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. The production decline could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.

The Case for Kinross

Kinross has a strong production profile and boasts a promising pipeline of exploration and development projects. Its key development projects and exploration programs, including Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, remain on track. These projects are expected to boost production and cash flow and deliver significant value. The successful execution of these projects will position the company for a new wave of low-cost, long-life production.

Tasiast and Paracatu, the company’s two biggest assets, remain the key contributors to cash flow generation and production. Tasiast remains the lowest-cost asset within its portfolio, with a consistently strong performance. It achieved record annual production and cash flow in 2024 and is on track to meet its full-year 2025 guidance. Paracatu continues to deliver a strong performance, with third-quarter production rising year over year on higher grades. KGC also completed the commissioning of its Manh Choh project and commenced production during the third quarter of 2024, leading to a substantial increase in cash flow at the Fort Knox operation.

KGC has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. KGC ended third-quarter 2025 with robust liquidity of roughly $3.4 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of roughly $1.7 billion. It delivered record free cash flow in the quarter, with attributable free cash flow surging approximately 66% year over year to $686.7 million, driven by the strength in gold prices and operating performance.

Kinross reactivated its share buyback program in April 2025 and repurchased shares worth roughly $405 million as of Nov. 4, 2025, including $165 million in shares in the third quarter. Total returns to shareholders, including dividends, were around $515 million. KGC plans to return roughly $750 million through dividends and repurchases this year.

Kinross has raised share buybacks by 20% and now expects to repurchase $600 million in shares in 2025. Its board has also approved a 17% increase to the quarterly dividend to 3.5 cents per common share, equating to 14 cents per share on an annualized basis. KGC offers a dividend yield of 0.5% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 9%.

Price Performance and Valuation of NEM & KGC

NEM stock has rallied 70.4% in the past six months, while KGC stock has soared 82.1% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s increase of 60.9%.