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TSLA & RIVN Hit Fresh Highs: Which Stock Should You Pick for 2026?
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Key Takeaways
Tesla hit a record high yesterday, driven by robotaxi plans, AI integration and robotics.
TSLA's Energy Generation and Storage unit is growing fast, with Megapack and Powerwall driving high margins.
Rivian is betting on the lower-priced R2 for 2026, deeper in-house software and a Volkswagen partnership.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has been one of the market’s most debated stocks over the past decade, delivering massive gains as the global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) accelerated.
In 2025, the stock has been volatile, marked by sharp price swings. After a shaky start to the year, Tesla shares have rebounded, rising about 21% overall as investor enthusiasm returned—driven by excitement around Tesla’s robotaxi plans, AI integration, and long-term robotics ambitions. The stock hit an all-time high yesterday.
Rivian (RIVN - Free Report) , meanwhile, has delivered a stronger performance in 2025. Shares have risen roughly 63% year to date and hit a new 52-week high yesterday. The company appears to be borrowing from Tesla’s playbook. Earlier this month, Rivian hosted its Autonomy and AI Day, which helped boost investor interest. During the event, Rivian unveiled a new in-house chip, outlined its robotaxi ambitions, and introduced its Autonomy+ driver-assistance package priced at $2,500.
With both Tesla and Rivian trading near one-year highs and pitching bold visions centered on AI, autonomy, and next-generation technology, investors face a key question— which stock offers the better risk-reward setup heading into 2026? Let’s take a closer look.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Case for Tesla
Tesla’s position in the EV market isn’t as untouchable as it once seemed. After reporting its first-ever annual delivery decline in 2024, sales fell around 13% each in the first and second quarters of 2025. While the third quarter offered Tesla a temporary breather as buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit, fourth-quarter deliveries are expected to decline amid the withdrawal of incentives and intense competition from Chinese EV makers. Management has already warned that automotive margins would remain under pressure from price cuts and higher costs.
While the company’s core EV business is facing a slowdown, Tesla's revenues from the Energy Generation and Storage business are on a robust growth trajectory on the back of the strong reception of its Megapack and Powerwall products. This segment stands out as Tesla's most lucrative, boasting the highest margins. Over the past three years, energy storage deployments have surged at a CAGR of 180%. Deployments are expected to continue their upward trajectory.
Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk is pinning high hopes on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxis, calling them Tesla’s most valuable future segment. Its robotaxi service, launched in June, is currently operational in Austin and San Francisco, with Phoenix next after the company recently secured the required permits. Tesla has also outlined plans to expand into Las Vegas, Dallas, Houston and Miami.
Notably, Tesla has started testing driverless robotaxis without safety monitors, a major milestone that investors see as proof of progress toward autonomous mobility. Musk has also announced that Tesla’s in-car systems will integrate Grok, an AI chatbot, boosting confidence in Tesla’s ability to monetize AI. Regarding robotics, Tesla’s humanoid robot project, Optimus, is seen as a long-term growth driver, adding to the narrative that Tesla is more than just an EV company.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s 2026 revenues and earnings implies an uptick of 12% and 43%, respectively, from projected 2025 levels.
Like Tesla, Rivian is also bearing the brunt of slowing sales amid unfriendly EV policies under U.S. President Trump. Rivian has forecast 2025 deliveries at 41,500-43,500 units, down from 51,579 units in 2024. The guidance is also narrower than the range of 40,000-46,000 units guided earlier.
Rivian is now betting on its upcoming R2 and R3 models, targeting more budget-conscious consumers. The R2, a midsize SUV, is slated for launch in the first half of 2026 with a starting price around $45,000—significantly lower than the premium R1 lineup. Rivian views the R2 as a key growth driver, citing major cost efficiencies in both materials and manufacturing. Rivian’s deal with Volkswagen is another booster. Volkswagen will invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and their joint venture (JV) by 2027. The partnership focuses on developing Rivian’s next-generation electrical architecture and software, starting with the R2 model.
Having said that, EV competition is rising and software is becoming a bigger differentiator. So, Rivian is pushing more technology in-house to boost performance and reduce long-term costs.Rivian unveiled its in-house RAP1 chip and new autonomy computer at its Autonomy & AI Day.The company also introduced an AI-powered “Rivian Assistant,” a voice interface launching early next year for both first- and second-generation vehicles. Near-term software updates will bring “Universal Hands-Free,” which promises hands-free driving on more than 3.5 million miles of roads across North America.
Rivian’s decision to integrate LiDAR into its future models is also a key step toward advanced automated driving. With LiDAR, custom chips and a new autonomy computer, the company is targeting Level 4 self-driving capabilities over time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s 2026 top and bottom line implies an improvement of 25% and 11%, respectively, from projected 2025 levels.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Heading into 2026, both Tesla and Rivian are positioning themselves as more than just EV makers, leaning heavily into autonomy, AI and software-led growth. However, the near-term backdrop remains challenging for both as EV demand is slowing, incentives are fading and competition—especially from China—is intensifying.
Rivian’s long-term vision is compelling, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, deeper software integration, and backing from Volkswagen. That said, Rivian is still far from profitability and continues to burn cash as it ramps up R&D, autonomy development and manufacturing preparations. With breakeven still not clearly in sight, the stock carries elevated execution and financial risk.
Tesla, while not without its own challenges, offers a more established platform. Its core EV business is under pressure, but growth in energy storage, progress in robotaxis and expanding AI and robotics ambitions provide multiple potential catalysts. Tesla remains a high-risk, high-reward story, but it also has scale, cash-generation capability, and clearer pathways to monetization.
With both stocks currently at fresh highs, near-term entry points are less attractive. Still, if investors must choose one for the long term, Tesla stands out as the stronger option—especially for those willing to stomach volatility in exchange for exposure to autonomy and AI-driven upside. And if even part of Musk’s vision comes together, TSLA could remain a winning stock for years to come.
Image: Bigstock
TSLA & RIVN Hit Fresh Highs: Which Stock Should You Pick for 2026?
Key Takeaways
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has been one of the market’s most debated stocks over the past decade, delivering massive gains as the global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) accelerated.
In 2025, the stock has been volatile, marked by sharp price swings. After a shaky start to the year, Tesla shares have rebounded, rising about 21% overall as investor enthusiasm returned—driven by excitement around Tesla’s robotaxi plans, AI integration, and long-term robotics ambitions. The stock hit an all-time high yesterday.
Rivian (RIVN - Free Report) , meanwhile, has delivered a stronger performance in 2025. Shares have risen roughly 63% year to date and hit a new 52-week high yesterday. The company appears to be borrowing from Tesla’s playbook. Earlier this month, Rivian hosted its Autonomy and AI Day, which helped boost investor interest. During the event, Rivian unveiled a new in-house chip, outlined its robotaxi ambitions, and introduced its Autonomy+ driver-assistance package priced at $2,500.
With both Tesla and Rivian trading near one-year highs and pitching bold visions centered on AI, autonomy, and next-generation technology, investors face a key question— which stock offers the better risk-reward setup heading into 2026? Let’s take a closer look.
Case for Tesla
Tesla’s position in the EV market isn’t as untouchable as it once seemed. After reporting its first-ever annual delivery decline in 2024, sales fell around 13% each in the first and second quarters of 2025. While the third quarter offered Tesla a temporary breather as buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit, fourth-quarter deliveries are expected to decline amid the withdrawal of incentives and intense competition from Chinese EV makers. Management has already warned that automotive margins would remain under pressure from price cuts and higher costs.
While the company’s core EV business is facing a slowdown, Tesla's revenues from the Energy Generation and Storage business are on a robust growth trajectory on the back of the strong reception of its Megapack and Powerwall products. This segment stands out as Tesla's most lucrative, boasting the highest margins. Over the past three years, energy storage deployments have surged at a CAGR of 180%. Deployments are expected to continue their upward trajectory.
Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk is pinning high hopes on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxis, calling them Tesla’s most valuable future segment. Its robotaxi service, launched in June, is currently operational in Austin and San Francisco, with Phoenix next after the company recently secured the required permits. Tesla has also outlined plans to expand into Las Vegas, Dallas, Houston and Miami.
Notably, Tesla has started testing driverless robotaxis without safety monitors, a major milestone that investors see as proof of progress toward autonomous mobility. Musk has also announced that Tesla’s in-car systems will integrate Grok, an AI chatbot, boosting confidence in Tesla’s ability to monetize AI. Regarding robotics, Tesla’s humanoid robot project, Optimus, is seen as a long-term growth driver, adding to the narrative that Tesla is more than just an EV company.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s 2026 revenues and earnings implies an uptick of 12% and 43%, respectively, from projected 2025 levels.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Case for Rivian
Like Tesla, Rivian is also bearing the brunt of slowing sales amid unfriendly EV policies under U.S. President Trump. Rivian has forecast 2025 deliveries at 41,500-43,500 units, down from 51,579 units in 2024. The guidance is also narrower than the range of 40,000-46,000 units guided earlier.
Rivian is now betting on its upcoming R2 and R3 models, targeting more budget-conscious consumers. The R2, a midsize SUV, is slated for launch in the first half of 2026 with a starting price around $45,000—significantly lower than the premium R1 lineup. Rivian views the R2 as a key growth driver, citing major cost efficiencies in both materials and manufacturing. Rivian’s deal with Volkswagen is another booster. Volkswagen will invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and their joint venture (JV) by 2027. The partnership focuses on developing Rivian’s next-generation electrical architecture and software, starting with the R2 model.
Having said that, EV competition is rising and software is becoming a bigger differentiator. So, Rivian is pushing more technology in-house to boost performance and reduce long-term costs.Rivian unveiled its in-house RAP1 chip and new autonomy computer at its Autonomy & AI Day.The company also introduced an AI-powered “Rivian Assistant,” a voice interface launching early next year for both first- and second-generation vehicles. Near-term software updates will bring “Universal Hands-Free,” which promises hands-free driving on more than 3.5 million miles of roads across North America.
Rivian’s decision to integrate LiDAR into its future models is also a key step toward advanced automated driving. With LiDAR, custom chips and a new autonomy computer, the company is targeting Level 4 self-driving capabilities over time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s 2026 top and bottom line implies an improvement of 25% and 11%, respectively, from projected 2025 levels.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Final Thoughts
Heading into 2026, both Tesla and Rivian are positioning themselves as more than just EV makers, leaning heavily into autonomy, AI and software-led growth. However, the near-term backdrop remains challenging for both as EV demand is slowing, incentives are fading and competition—especially from China—is intensifying.
Rivian’s long-term vision is compelling, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, deeper software integration, and backing from Volkswagen. That said, Rivian is still far from profitability and continues to burn cash as it ramps up R&D, autonomy development and manufacturing preparations. With breakeven still not clearly in sight, the stock carries elevated execution and financial risk.
Tesla, while not without its own challenges, offers a more established platform. Its core EV business is under pressure, but growth in energy storage, progress in robotaxis and expanding AI and robotics ambitions provide multiple potential catalysts. Tesla remains a high-risk, high-reward story, but it also has scale, cash-generation capability, and clearer pathways to monetization.
With both stocks currently at fresh highs, near-term entry points are less attractive. Still, if investors must choose one for the long term, Tesla stands out as the stronger option—especially for those willing to stomach volatility in exchange for exposure to autonomy and AI-driven upside. And if even part of Musk’s vision comes together, TSLA could remain a winning stock for years to come.
Both TSLA and RIVN currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.