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This is a respected Canadian group of economists you should already know about.
Next is a needed excerpt from their year-end 2025 outlook on 2026.
AN EVENTFUL GLOBAL CALENDAR IN 2026…
Hoping for a less active year in 2026? Good luck. Wishing for as much action as this past one? You might be in luck.
There will be some fun mixed in, like the Winter Olympics in February and the World Cup for soccer/football in the summer.
On top of the usual line-up of global central bank decisions, budgets, and key data releases there will be a wealth of other calendar-based risks. And then there will be the “unknown unknowns” as a former US politician once put it.
Here’s a list:
U.S. Affordable Care Act health subsidies expire Dec 31st.
Fed Chair appointment, guidance points to early January.
Supreme Court Decision on IEEPA tariffs any time by January.
US partial government shutdown risk as funding expires January 30th.
Thai general election February 8th.
China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) by March.
Peruvian general election April.
Colombian presidential election May 31st.
CUSMA/USMCA negotiate or renew deadline July 1st.
Swedish general election September.
Quebec Election by October 5th.
Brazilian general election October.
U.S. Midterm Election on November 7th.
New Zealand general election by December 19th.
Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) 5-year review of inflation agreement with the government, late year.
…WILL AMPLIFY US POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
What is not on this list because we don’t have dates is the prospect for additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S. as part of what may be a full-on pivot by the Trump administration and how this interacts with the Federal Reserve’s outlook.
As argued here, the US job market is flashing orange on recession risk after growth stopped following ‘Liberation Day’ (chart 13).
I won’t repeat the arguments, but chart 14 adjusts the measure of payrolls for revisions to show that year-over-year payroll growth is weakening even more than official readings.
The stalling job market is getting closer to recessionary conditions with recessions shown as grey bars since the 1940s.
That is a time-honored recession flag. It is avoidable, but the warning sign is clear.
Image Source: Scotiabank Economics
It is untrue that the weakness in payrolls is just because of government firings under DOGE actions.
Chart 15 shows private sector hiring ex-health. Further adjustments would also be required. Private payrolls are also likely contracting after taking account of the revisions argument and distorted seasonal adjustments.
It’s also untrue that manufacturing jobs are being brought back to the U.S. (chart 16).
Image Source: Scotiabank Economics
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three very big (by Market Capitalization) global large-cap stocks this week.
The first stock is a A-rated Zacks long-term VGM recipient. The other two stocks get marked as F, mostly since they are currently over-valued.
(1) General Motors (GM - Free Report) : This is a $83 a share stock, with a market cap of $77.3B. It is found in Zacks Domestic Auto industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Western Digital (WDC - Free Report) : This is a $180 a share stock, with a market cap of $61.4B. It is found in the Zacks Computer Storage Devices industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) Standard Chartered (SCBFF - Free Report) : This is a $24 a share stock, with a market cap of $54.4B. It is found in the Zacks Foreign Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Key Global Macro
The latest FOMC minutes are the likely main macro news event out this week.
On Monday, U.S. pending home sales come out for NOV. Consensus looks for a +1% m/m rise, following a prior +1.95 m/m mark in OCT.
On Tuesday, the latest U.S. FOMC minutes come out.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI (prior was 49.2) and non-manufacturing PMI (prior was 49.5) come out.
On Thursday, is the U.S. New Year’s holiday.
On Friday, the U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for DEC comes out. 51.8 was the prior reading.
Conclusion
On Dec. 19th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out a Tech and “Mag 7” update.
These are the critical bull market sectors to review as we enter 2026:
A. Tech Earnings Outlook
The chart below shows the earnings and revenue growth outlook for the Zacks Tech sector on a quarterly basis, where we highlight expectations for 2025 Q4 in the context of what the sector achieved in the preceding two quarters and what is expected in the following three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector has been critical to driving aggregate earnings growth for the last 9 quarters (since 2023 Q3), and the above chart shows that it is expected to continue playing that role in the coming periods as well.
Please note that the Tech sector has been consistently enjoying positive estimate revisions over the past year, and we saw the same trend at play since the start of 2025 Q4 in October. In fact, had it not been for positive revisions to Tech sector estimates, aggregate Q4 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index would be modestly down since the start of October.
The chart below shows the sector’s earnings growth picture on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The positive revisions trend that we referenced for the Tech sector in the context of 2025 Q4 earnings estimates is very much in place for full-year 2026 estimates as well, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector is not ordinary; it accounts for nearly a third of S&P 500 earnings, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B. Earnings Outlook for the Mag 7
The Mag 7 group is generally seen as mega-cap Tech players. However, in the Zacks sector classification system, two of the Mag 7 players are not part of the Zacks Tech sector; we place Amazon in the Zacks Retail sector and Tesla in the Zacks Auto sector. Both of these sectors are Zacks innovations, as the ‘official’ Standard & Poor’s industry classification does not have stand-alone sectors for the retail and auto spaces.
For 2025 Q4, the Mag 7 group is expected to produce +16.9% earnings growth on +16.4% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the Mag 7 group’s earnings and revenue growth picture on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, the group’s 2026 earnings are currently expected to be up +16.6%, followed by +18% in 2027.
The important factor to keep in mind is that the Mag 7 earnings outlook is steadily improving, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that the Mag 7 group is on track to bring in 26.4% of all S&P 500 earnings in 2026, up from 23.2% of the total in 2024 and 11.7% in 2019.
Regarding market capitalization?
The Mag 7 group currently carries a 34.6% weight in the index.
Let’s all plan for a Happy New Years!
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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A Look Ahead to 2026: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What is happening in this Global Week Ahead?
A New Year arrives at mid-week!
Let’s consult Scotiabank’s January 2026 Market Themes for Risk Traders—
Click this hotlink.
This is a respected Canadian group of economists you should already know about.
Next is a needed excerpt from their year-end 2025 outlook on 2026.
AN EVENTFUL GLOBAL CALENDAR IN 2026…
Hoping for a less active year in 2026? Good luck. Wishing for as much action as this past one? You might be in luck.
There will be some fun mixed in, like the Winter Olympics in February and the World Cup for soccer/football in the summer.
On top of the usual line-up of global central bank decisions, budgets, and key data releases there will be a wealth of other calendar-based risks. And then there will be the “unknown unknowns” as a former US politician once put it.
Here’s a list:
U.S. Affordable Care Act health subsidies expire Dec 31st.
Fed Chair appointment, guidance points to early January.
Supreme Court Decision on IEEPA tariffs any time by January.
US partial government shutdown risk as funding expires January 30th.
Thai general election February 8th.
China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) by March.
Peruvian general election April.
Colombian presidential election May 31st.
CUSMA/USMCA negotiate or renew deadline July 1st.
Swedish general election September.
Quebec Election by October 5th.
Brazilian general election October.
U.S. Midterm Election on November 7th.
New Zealand general election by December 19th.
Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) 5-year review of inflation agreement with the government, late year.
…WILL AMPLIFY US POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
What is not on this list because we don’t have dates is the prospect for additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S. as part of what may be a full-on pivot by the Trump administration and how this interacts with the Federal Reserve’s outlook.
As argued here, the US job market is flashing orange on recession risk after growth stopped following ‘Liberation Day’ (chart 13).
I won’t repeat the arguments, but chart 14 adjusts the measure of payrolls for revisions to show that year-over-year payroll growth is weakening even more than official readings.
The stalling job market is getting closer to recessionary conditions with recessions shown as grey bars since the 1940s.
That is a time-honored recession flag. It is avoidable, but the warning sign is clear.
Image Source: Scotiabank Economics
It is untrue that the weakness in payrolls is just because of government firings under DOGE actions.
Chart 15 shows private sector hiring ex-health. Further adjustments would also be required. Private payrolls are also likely contracting after taking account of the revisions argument and distorted seasonal adjustments.
It’s also untrue that manufacturing jobs are being brought back to the U.S. (chart 16).
Image Source: Scotiabank Economics
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three very big (by Market Capitalization) global large-cap stocks this week.
The first stock is a A-rated Zacks long-term VGM recipient. The other two stocks get marked as F, mostly since they are currently over-valued.
(1) General Motors (GM - Free Report) : This is a $83 a share stock, with a market cap of $77.3B. It is found in Zacks Domestic Auto industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Western Digital (WDC - Free Report) : This is a $180 a share stock, with a market cap of $61.4B. It is found in the Zacks Computer Storage Devices industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) Standard Chartered (SCBFF - Free Report) : This is a $24 a share stock, with a market cap of $54.4B. It is found in the Zacks Foreign Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Key Global Macro
The latest FOMC minutes are the likely main macro news event out this week.
On Monday, U.S. pending home sales come out for NOV. Consensus looks for a +1% m/m rise, following a prior +1.95 m/m mark in OCT.
On Tuesday, the latest U.S. FOMC minutes come out.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI (prior was 49.2) and non-manufacturing PMI (prior was 49.5) come out.
On Thursday, is the U.S. New Year’s holiday.
On Friday, the U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for DEC comes out. 51.8 was the prior reading.
Conclusion
On Dec. 19th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out a Tech and “Mag 7” update.
These are the critical bull market sectors to review as we enter 2026:
A. Tech Earnings Outlook
The chart below shows the earnings and revenue growth outlook for the Zacks Tech sector on a quarterly basis, where we highlight expectations for 2025 Q4 in the context of what the sector achieved in the preceding two quarters and what is expected in the following three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector has been critical to driving aggregate earnings growth for the last 9 quarters (since 2023 Q3), and the above chart shows that it is expected to continue playing that role in the coming periods as well.
Please note that the Tech sector has been consistently enjoying positive estimate revisions over the past year, and we saw the same trend at play since the start of 2025 Q4 in October. In fact, had it not been for positive revisions to Tech sector estimates, aggregate Q4 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index would be modestly down since the start of October.
The chart below shows the sector’s earnings growth picture on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The positive revisions trend that we referenced for the Tech sector in the context of 2025 Q4 earnings estimates is very much in place for full-year 2026 estimates as well, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector is not ordinary; it accounts for nearly a third of S&P 500 earnings, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B. Earnings Outlook for the Mag 7
The Mag 7 group is generally seen as mega-cap Tech players. However, in the Zacks sector classification system, two of the Mag 7 players are not part of the Zacks Tech sector; we place Amazon in the Zacks Retail sector and Tesla in the Zacks Auto sector. Both of these sectors are Zacks innovations, as the ‘official’ Standard & Poor’s industry classification does not have stand-alone sectors for the retail and auto spaces.
For 2025 Q4, the Mag 7 group is expected to produce +16.9% earnings growth on +16.4% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the Mag 7 group’s earnings and revenue growth picture on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, the group’s 2026 earnings are currently expected to be up +16.6%, followed by +18% in 2027.
The important factor to keep in mind is that the Mag 7 earnings outlook is steadily improving, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that the Mag 7 group is on track to bring in 26.4% of all S&P 500 earnings in 2026, up from 23.2% of the total in 2024 and 11.7% in 2019.
Regarding market capitalization?
The Mag 7 group currently carries a 34.6% weight in the index.
Let’s all plan for a Happy New Years!
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist