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Is Altria's Smoke-Free Push Enough to Stabilize Growth Over Time?

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Key Takeaways

  • MO's cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in Q3, pushing it to accelerate the smoke-free strategy.
  • MO launched on! PLUS, a premium nicotine pouch aimed at smokeless tobacco users and rival pouch customers.
  • Altria submitted FDA applications for the Ploom heated tobacco system through its Horizon joint venture.

Altria Group, Inc. ((MO - Free Report) ) is reshaping the growth strategy as cigarette demand weakens, raising questions about whether its smoke-free push can stabilize growth over time. In the third quarter of 2025, domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2%, reflecting pressure from the growing use of flavored disposable e-vapor products and tighter consumer spending. To manage these trends, Altria is placing greater emphasis on a diversified smoke-free portfolio that includes oral nicotine, e-vapor and heated tobacco.

The strongest progress is currently in oral nicotine. Altria’s nicotine pouch brand, on!, held an 8.7% retail share of the total oral tobacco category during the first nine months of 2025. To support further adoption, the company recently introduced on! PLUS, a premium version aimed at both traditional smokeless tobacco users and competing pouch consumers.

In e-vapor, Altria continues to work through challenges as it integrates NJOY. The company has completed a modified design for NJOY ACE to address patent issues and is operating in a market crowded with illicit disposable products. At the same time, Altria advanced its heated tobacco efforts through the Horizon joint venture by submitting FDA applications for the Ploom heated tobacco system.

Overall, Altria’s strategy reflects a gradual move away from cigarettes rather than an immediate replacement. The company is expanding its range of smoke-free products to respond to changing adult consumer preferences, with oral nicotine showing the most visible traction so far. How effectively this mix evolves will shape the pace of Altria’s transition over time.

PM and TPB Stand Next to Altria

Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM - Free Report) ) is steadily shifting toward smoke-free products as part of its growth strategy. In the third quarter of 2025, smoke-free products made up about 41% of Philip Morris’ net revenues, with shipment volumes rising 16.6% year over year. IQOS continues to lead the heated tobacco category, while oral nicotine brand ZYN recorded strong growth in the United States, contributing to Philip Morris’ broader smoke-free portfolio expansion.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. ((TPB - Free Report) ) is carving out a more focused, capital-efficient path in smoke-free nicotine. In the third quarter of 2025, Turning Point Brands’ Modern Oral sales surged 627.6% year over year to $36.7 million, accounting for about 30.8% of total net sales. Backed by legacy brands such as Zig-Zag and Stoker’s, Turning Point Brands is focusing its investment on oral nicotine while taking a measured and selective approach to growth.

Altria’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Altria have gained 0.6% in the past month compared with the industry’s growth of 5.2%.

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From a valuation standpoint, MO trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3X, down from the industry’s average of 14.35X.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MO’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 6.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

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Altria currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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