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2025 was a year filled with surprises, most notably, the April ‘Liberation Day’ tariff-induced market collapse and the subsequent rip-roaring market recovery where stocks climbed the proverbial “Wall of Worry.” Despite tariff fears inflation remained relatively contained, though precious metals registered their best performance in years. AI stocks were all the rage, though they suffered multiple nasty corrections throughout the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin suffered from the classic “sell the news” phenomenon after crypto-friendly legislation was passed.
The twists and turns of the 2025 market illustrate just how unpredictable markets and psychology can be. Nevertheless, predictions can be entertaining and thought provoking. Additionally, investors can use historical data and probabilities to make “educated guesses” about the coming year, and at the very least, provide themselves with a potential roadmap. Below are five of my high probability predictions for 2026.
1. The S&P 500 Index will Suffer a Correction of 10% or More During 2026:
Historically, the S&P 500 suffers a 14% peak-to-trough correction roughly one time per year. After an above average return of 16.4% in 2025, investors should expect some potential profit taking along the way.
2. The S&P 500 Index will Gain 10% or More in 2026:
Recently, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve made the rare and aggressive move of cutting interest rates with the S&P 500 Index at highs. According to Carson Research’s Ryan Detrick, “rate cuts near all-time highs have seen stocks higher a year later 20 out of 20 times.” Meanwhile, stocks have enjoyed above average returns of 13.9% during these instances.
3. More Companies will go Public in 2026 than in 2025:
A stable macroeconomic climate, easing inflation, and the maturation of high-growth sectors will lead to more IPOs in 2026. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are rumored to go public in 2026. Meanwhile, a backlog of delayed IPOs will likely go public after market volatility-related delays.
4. There will be no Third Wave of Inflation (CPI will Remain Below 4%):
The biggest fear following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff unveil was that tariffs would cause inflation. However, what most investors got wrong was that large U.S. retailers like Amazon, Walmart and Costco would leverage their massive market share to force suppliers to “eat” tariff costs. Additionally, inflation refers to persistently higher prices, whereas the Trump Administration’s tariffs are merely a one-time increase. Finally, energy, a large component of inflation, is likely to stay low due to rolled regulations and increased production.
5. GDP Will Soar to >3%:
Easing monetary policy, reduced trade complications, and the biggest tax refunds in history will help to foster a robust economic client in 2026. Furthermore, the AI revolution will continue to drive the economy. For instance, Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest that Nvidia will grow EPS 55% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, AI will move beyond large language models to physical AI gains in products like Tesla and Alphabet’s robotaxi networks.
Bottom Line
Predicting the future of financial markets is never an exact science, but by leaning on historical precedents and current economic tailwinds, we can navigate the uncertainty with greater confidence. While 2026 will undoubtedly bring its own set of surprises, the combination of a dovish Fed, a maturing AI sector, and resilient consumer suggests a year of significant expansion.
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Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Nvidia, Tesla and Alphabet's
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – January 6, 2026 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , Walmart (WMT - Free Report) , Costco (COST - Free Report) , Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) .
Five 2026 Market Predictions
2025: The Year of the Unexpected
2025 was a year filled with surprises, most notably, the April ‘Liberation Day’ tariff-induced market collapse and the subsequent rip-roaring market recovery where stocks climbed the proverbial “Wall of Worry.” Despite tariff fears inflation remained relatively contained, though precious metals registered their best performance in years. AI stocks were all the rage, though they suffered multiple nasty corrections throughout the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin suffered from the classic “sell the news” phenomenon after crypto-friendly legislation was passed.
The twists and turns of the 2025 market illustrate just how unpredictable markets and psychology can be. Nevertheless, predictions can be entertaining and thought provoking. Additionally, investors can use historical data and probabilities to make “educated guesses” about the coming year, and at the very least, provide themselves with a potential roadmap. Below are five of my high probability predictions for 2026.
1. The S&P 500 Index will Suffer a Correction of 10% or More During 2026:
Historically, the S&P 500 suffers a 14% peak-to-trough correction roughly one time per year. After an above average return of 16.4% in 2025, investors should expect some potential profit taking along the way.
2. The S&P 500 Index will Gain 10% or More in 2026:
Recently, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve made the rare and aggressive move of cutting interest rates with the S&P 500 Index at highs. According to Carson Research’s Ryan Detrick, “rate cuts near all-time highs have seen stocks higher a year later 20 out of 20 times.” Meanwhile, stocks have enjoyed above average returns of 13.9% during these instances.
3. More Companies will go Public in 2026 than in 2025:
A stable macroeconomic climate, easing inflation, and the maturation of high-growth sectors will lead to more IPOs in 2026. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are rumored to go public in 2026. Meanwhile, a backlog of delayed IPOs will likely go public after market volatility-related delays.
4. There will be no Third Wave of Inflation (CPI will Remain Below 4%):
The biggest fear following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff unveil was that tariffs would cause inflation. However, what most investors got wrong was that large U.S. retailers like Amazon, Walmart and Costco would leverage their massive market share to force suppliers to “eat” tariff costs. Additionally, inflation refers to persistently higher prices, whereas the Trump Administration’s tariffs are merely a one-time increase. Finally, energy, a large component of inflation, is likely to stay low due to rolled regulations and increased production.
5. GDP Will Soar to >3%:
Easing monetary policy, reduced trade complications, and the biggest tax refunds in history will help to foster a robust economic client in 2026. Furthermore, the AI revolution will continue to drive the economy. For instance, Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest that Nvidia will grow EPS 55% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, AI will move beyond large language models to physical AI gains in products like Tesla and Alphabet’s robotaxi networks.
Bottom Line
Predicting the future of financial markets is never an exact science, but by leaning on historical precedents and current economic tailwinds, we can navigate the uncertainty with greater confidence. While 2026 will undoubtedly bring its own set of surprises, the combination of a dovish Fed, a maturing AI sector, and resilient consumer suggests a year of significant expansion.
Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Get all the details here >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.