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AP Upgraded to Outperform on Exits, Tariff Pass-Through & ALP

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Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP - Free Report) , recently upgraded to an “Outperform” from “Neutral,” is emerging from a multi-year reset with a simpler footprint, firmer pricing discipline and growing exposure to end markets that are proving both resilient and strategic. After exiting structurally unprofitable operations and navigating tariff-driven volatility, management is increasingly framing the business around higher-quality earnings rather than volume for volume’s sake. Tariffs have been passed through successfully, cost savings from recent exits are coming into view, and the Air and Liquid Processing (ALP) business is benefiting from strong demand tied to pharmaceuticals, nuclear infrastructure and defense. Yet the stock continues to trade as if these changes are temporary or cyclical, rather than reflective of a fundamentally improved earnings base. With the portfolio now streamlined and operating leverage building, the market’s current valuation appears disconnected from Ampco-Pittsburgh’s evolving earnings power.

Ampco-Pittsburgh’s Tariff Pass-Through Preserves Margins

Tariffs have been a defining issue across industrial markets over the past year, but Ampco-Pittsburgh’s experience has been notably more controlled than feared. In the Forged and Cast Engineered Products (FCEP) segment, management has consistently passed tariff-related costs through to customers, preserving margins even as trade policy uncertainty temporarily slowed ordering activity. Customers deferred purchases largely due to timing and inventory decisions rather than structural demand destruction, and management has indicated that tariff impacts in North America should be neutral over time.

Within the ALP segment, where copper and other inputs are critical, AP’s adjusted sourcing to minimize exposure and passed through residual tariff costs where necessary. The result has been steady margin performance alongside rising volumes, underscoring that Ampco-Pittsburgh operates in engineered, specification-driven markets where pricing power is tied to performance and reliability rather than commodity inputs. Rather than compressing profitability, tariffs have reinforced the company’s ability to manage costs dynamically without sacrificing customer relationships.

AP’s Business Exits Are Resetting the Earnings Base

The most important driver of Ampco-Pittsburgh’s improving outlook is the exit from businesses that consistently diluted returns. The accelerated shutdown of the U.K. cast roll facility and the wind-down of a small, non-core steel distribution operation removed assets that were misaligned with current demand, energy economics and margin expectations. While these exits created short-term noise in reported results, they eliminated recurring losses that had weighed on consolidated earnings for years.

Management expects meaningful annualized cost savings once these exits are fully reflected, materially lifting adjusted EBITDA and simplifying operations. Just as importantly, the U.K. exit was executed in a way that stopped losses earlier than planned and avoided additional cash drain. With these structural drags removed, AP’s remaining portfolio is better aligned with markets where it holds technical advantages, pricing power and scale.

Ampco-Pittsburgh’s ALP End Markets Provide Growth Visibility

As the company narrows its focus, the ALP segment has become the clearest expression of Ampco-Pittsburgh’s strategic direction. Demand from pharmaceutical customers remains strong, driven by ongoing investment in U.S.-based manufacturing, research capacity and regulatory compliance upgrades. These projects tend to be long-cycle, high-specification and less sensitive to short-term economic swings.

Nuclear infrastructure is emerging as a second major pillar. From the restart of legacy plants to early-stage work on small modular reactors, demand for AP’s heat exchange equipment has accelerated, with orders and shipments already exceeding prior annual levels. Defense adds another layer of durability, with ALP supplying critical pump systems for U.S. Navy vessels and expanding capacity through Navy-funded equipment programs. Together, these end markets provide a more stable and higher-value revenue mix than Ampco-Pittsburgh has historically enjoyed.

AP’s Valuation Lags Despite Structural Improvement

Despite these operational shifts, Ampco-Pittsburgh’s valuation continues to reflect skepticism. The stock trades at a fraction of peer multiples on both sales and book value, even though the business mix has improved and earnings power is rising. Over the past five years, valuation metrics have oscillated within a narrow band, and the stock remains near the lower end of those historical ranges.

Looking forward, pro-forma earnings tell a different story. With cost savings from exited businesses flowing through and ALP performance strengthening, adjusted EBITDA is poised to step higher. Applying a modest multiple to that earnings base supports a valuation meaningfully above current trading levels, suggesting the market has yet to price in the durability of AP’s reshaped portfolio.

Ampco-Pittsburgh’s Key Challenges and Risks

Ampco-Pittsburgh is not without risk. The FCEP segment remains exposed to steel-related cycles, and customer ordering patterns can be uneven during periods of macro or policy uncertainty. Tariffs, while manageable to date, could still influence cross-border demand dynamics, particularly for non-U.S. customers. Execution risk also remains as AP completes its exits and ensures that remaining operations scale efficiently without cost creep.

In ALP, capacity expansion must be carefully aligned with demand to avoid margin dilution. While end markets are strong, project timing can shift, and defense-related programs are subject to funding cycles and procurement delays. These risks are real, but they are increasingly concentrated within a smaller, more focused operating base.

AP’s Structural Positioning and Outlook

Ampco-Pittsburgh today looks materially different from it did just a year ago. Unprofitable assets are gone, pricing discipline has been validated and the business is increasingly oriented toward engineered products tied to long-term investment cycles. ALP provides a stabilizing earnings core, while the streamlined forged and cast operations offer operating leverage as demand normalizes.

If management continues to execute and end-market strength holds, AP appears positioned to deliver steadier earnings with less downside volatility than in past cycles. At a valuation still anchored near historical troughs, the market does not appear to be fully recognizing that shift yet.


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