We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Will JPMorgan Be Able to Reach Its NII Target of $103B in 2026?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan expects 2026 net interest income to reach $103B, up from $95.9B in 2025.
Revolving card balances and stable deposits are key to offsetting lower rates and margin pressure.
Markets NII, projected at $8B, remains a variable swing factor in JPM's 2026 income outlook.
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) expects net interest income (NII) to reach about $103 billion in 2026, even as it builds against a lower-rate backdrop. The bank calls the outlook “market dependent” and bases it on the rate curve implied as of Jan. 8, 2026. In 2025, NII was $95.9 billion.
A part of the lift is likely to come from Markets NII. JPMorgan pegs 2026 NII, excluding Markets, at roughly $95 billion, implying Markets NII of around $8 billion, an area that can be more variable than the core lending-and-deposit engine.
Image Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The NII guidance assumes two Federal Reserve rate cuts, ending the year with a fed funds target upper bound near 3.25%. It also anticipates interest on reserve balance (IORB) falling about 92 basis points year over year and deposit margin compression as headwinds. To counter that, JPM points to modest improvement in Consumer and Wholesale deposit balances. Further, higher-yielding revolving card balances are expected to help cushion NII as benchmark rates drift lower, particularly if funding costs stay contained.
During the conference call with analysts, JPM’s Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum, noted, "Consumers and small businesses remain resilient." He further added that the bank was not seeing deterioration across income groups. In 2025, the company saw a solid increase in loan demand, with major growth coming from Wholesale loans (up 17% year over year), followed by credit card loans (up 6%).
On Jan. 7, JPMorgan signed an agreement to become the new issuer of the Apple Card, which has approximately $20 billion in receivables. While the deal will strengthen the bank’s position in the credit card operation, the phased transition (expected to be over in two years and subject to regulatory approvals) is less likely to have any significant impact on the company’s NII this year.
One major factor that could influence this year’s NII is the proposed cap on the credit card interest rates at 10%. Although nothing has been finalized, JPMorgan’s NII could be pressured by compressing yields on high-margin revolving balances, a major growth driver in its NII outlook. Barnum said, "If it were to happen, it would be very bad for consumers, very bad for the economy.” The bank could respond by tightening credit and limiting balance growth, which would further weigh on NII.
Additionally, with Markets expected to contribute meaningfully to support NII, the path will hinge on rates, deposit competition and trading-related balance sheet dynamics.
What Do JPM’s Peers Say About Their 2026 NII Expectations?
The two closest peers of JPMorgan are Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) .
Bank of America expects 2026 NII to rise 5-7% year over year, following 7.2% growth in 2025. Bank of America continues to benefit from a supportive rate backdrop, productivity gains from technology investments and the earnings resilience of a diversified franchise.
Citigroup is guiding for 5-6% NII growth in 2026, after delivering 11% year-over-year growth in 2025. Citigroup’s outlook is underpinned by a steadier rate environment and constructive balance sheet trends.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
JPMorgan shares have gained 1.8% over the past six months.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, JPM trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.98X, below the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan’s 2026 earnings calls for a 4.5% rise on a year-over-year basis, while 2027 earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 9.1%. In the past seven days, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have moved upward.
Image: Bigstock
Will JPMorgan Be Able to Reach Its NII Target of $103B in 2026?
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) expects net interest income (NII) to reach about $103 billion in 2026, even as it builds against a lower-rate backdrop. The bank calls the outlook “market dependent” and bases it on the rate curve implied as of Jan. 8, 2026. In 2025, NII was $95.9 billion.
A part of the lift is likely to come from Markets NII. JPMorgan pegs 2026 NII, excluding Markets, at roughly $95 billion, implying Markets NII of around $8 billion, an area that can be more variable than the core lending-and-deposit engine.
Image Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The NII guidance assumes two Federal Reserve rate cuts, ending the year with a fed funds target upper bound near 3.25%. It also anticipates interest on reserve balance (IORB) falling about 92 basis points year over year and deposit margin compression as headwinds. To counter that, JPM points to modest improvement in Consumer and Wholesale deposit balances. Further, higher-yielding revolving card balances are expected to help cushion NII as benchmark rates drift lower, particularly if funding costs stay contained.
During the conference call with analysts, JPM’s Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum, noted, "Consumers and small businesses remain resilient." He further added that the bank was not seeing deterioration across income groups. In 2025, the company saw a solid increase in loan demand, with major growth coming from Wholesale loans (up 17% year over year), followed by credit card loans (up 6%).
On Jan. 7, JPMorgan signed an agreement to become the new issuer of the Apple Card, which has approximately $20 billion in receivables. While the deal will strengthen the bank’s position in the credit card operation, the phased transition (expected to be over in two years and subject to regulatory approvals) is less likely to have any significant impact on the company’s NII this year.
One major factor that could influence this year’s NII is the proposed cap on the credit card interest rates at 10%. Although nothing has been finalized, JPMorgan’s NII could be pressured by compressing yields on high-margin revolving balances, a major growth driver in its NII outlook. Barnum said, "If it were to happen, it would be very bad for consumers, very bad for the economy.” The bank could respond by tightening credit and limiting balance growth, which would further weigh on NII.
Additionally, with Markets expected to contribute meaningfully to support NII, the path will hinge on rates, deposit competition and trading-related balance sheet dynamics.
What Do JPM’s Peers Say About Their 2026 NII Expectations?
The two closest peers of JPMorgan are Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) .
Bank of America expects 2026 NII to rise 5-7% year over year, following 7.2% growth in 2025. Bank of America continues to benefit from a supportive rate backdrop, productivity gains from technology investments and the earnings resilience of a diversified franchise.
Citigroup is guiding for 5-6% NII growth in 2026, after delivering 11% year-over-year growth in 2025. Citigroup’s outlook is underpinned by a steadier rate environment and constructive balance sheet trends.
JPMorgan’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
JPMorgan shares have gained 1.8% over the past six months.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, JPM trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.98X, below the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan’s 2026 earnings calls for a 4.5% rise on a year-over-year basis, while 2027 earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 9.1%. In the past seven days, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have moved upward.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JPM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.