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What to Expect From Simon Property Stock This Earnings Season?
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Key Takeaways
SPG reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 2, with revenues expected to rise year over year.
Simon Property posted strong leasing, traffic gains and occupancy above 96% in Q3.
SPG's Q4 FFO per share is estimated at $3.47, a 5.71% decline from the prior-year quarter.
Simon Property Group (SPG - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 2, after market close. While the company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year rise in revenues, funds from operations (FFO) per share are expected to decline.
In the last reported quarter, this Indianapolis, IN-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 4.21% in terms of FFO per share. Results reflected an increase in revenues, driven by higher base minimum rent per square foot and occupancy levels.
Over the preceding four quarters, Simon Property’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on each occasion, the average surprise being 3.54%. This is depicted in the graph below:
In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its fourth-quarter 2025 performance.
US Retail Real Estate Market in Q4
The final quarter reflected a sector that had largely stabilized after years of uneven recovery, supported by steady consumer demand, diminished uncertainty from tariffs and disciplined supply growth. Also, holiday sales were resilient. Cushman & Wakefield’s (CWK - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2025 retail real estate market report reinforces this improving tone as landlords entered year-end with firmer fundamentals.
Cushman’s fourth-quarter 2025 data points to strengthening retail demand, with net absorption turning positive across all major U.S. regions. National retail vacancy came in at 5.7%, reflecting relatively tight conditions compared with historical norms. New supply remained limited, helping stabilize occupancy across shopping centers.
Leasing momentum improved toward year-end, driven by grocery chains, discount retailers and experiential tenants absorbing secondary space. Cushman reported approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2023. Asking rents continued to trend higher on a year-over-year basis to $$25.29 psf, supported by stable tenant sales and foot traffic.
Factors to Consider Ahead of SPG’s Q4 Results
Simon Property Group is likely to have benefited from the strength and scale of its high-quality retail portfolio across both domestic and international markets. Its premium malls continue to attract luxury and high-end tenants, reinforcing the appeal of the portfolio to higher-income consumers who have remained relatively resilient in their spending patterns. As a result, demand for SPG’s properties is expected to have remained healthy. The company’s emphasis on omnichannel retail strategies and deeper partnerships with leading brands is also expected to have driven meaningful gains.
During the third quarter, management highlighted a sequential pickup in shopper traffic and retailer sales, with total sales volumes increasing by more than 4% year over year. This momentum positioned the portfolio favorably heading into the seasonally important fourth quarter. Occupancy levels remained near cycle highs at above 96%, driven by solid leasing activity and an expanding mix of new-to-portfolio tenants, a trend that likely carried through the fourth quarter. Still, potential pressures from tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty remain factors to monitor.
Beyond near-term retail fundamentals, Simon’s continued focus on mixed-use developments is expected to have unlocked incremental growth opportunities in key markets by diversifying income streams. Supported by a strong balance sheet, the company is likely to have sustained its redevelopment and expansion initiatives during the quarter. Overall, despite lingering headwinds, SPG’s diversified platform and concentration of premium assets are expected to have provided stability amid shifting retail conditions.
Projections for SPG
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter lease income is pegged at $1.5 billion, up from $1.43 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for management fees and other revenues stands at $38.10 million, up from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $37.15 million.
In addition, the consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is presently pegged at $1.63 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.84% year over year.
However, the consensus mark for other income stands at $96.71 million, down from $113.56 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Simon Property’s activities during the soon-to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter FFO per share has remained unchanged at $3.47 over the past month. It suggests a 5.71% decrease year over year.
For full-year 2025, Simon Property expected real estate FFO per share to be between $12.60 and $12.70, with the midpoint of $12.65. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for real estate FFO per share is pegged at $12.68 on revenues of $6.14 billion. This calls for a 2.39% year-over-year decrease in real estate FFO per share, while revenues are projected to increase 2.92%.
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for SPG:
Our proven model predicts a likely surprise in terms of FFO per share for Simon Property this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.
Simon Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two other stocks from the retail REIT sector — Regency Centers (REG - Free Report) and Realty Income (O - Free Report) — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to report an earnings surprise this quarter.
Realty Income, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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What to Expect From Simon Property Stock This Earnings Season?
Key Takeaways
Simon Property Group (SPG - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 2, after market close. While the company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year rise in revenues, funds from operations (FFO) per share are expected to decline.
In the last reported quarter, this Indianapolis, IN-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 4.21% in terms of FFO per share. Results reflected an increase in revenues, driven by higher base minimum rent per square foot and occupancy levels.
Over the preceding four quarters, Simon Property’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on each occasion, the average surprise being 3.54%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Simon Property Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Simon Property Group, Inc. Quote
In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its fourth-quarter 2025 performance.
US Retail Real Estate Market in Q4
The final quarter reflected a sector that had largely stabilized after years of uneven recovery, supported by steady consumer demand, diminished uncertainty from tariffs and disciplined supply growth. Also, holiday sales were resilient. Cushman & Wakefield’s (CWK - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2025 retail real estate market report reinforces this improving tone as landlords entered year-end with firmer fundamentals.
Cushman’s fourth-quarter 2025 data points to strengthening retail demand, with net absorption turning positive across all major U.S. regions. National retail vacancy came in at 5.7%, reflecting relatively tight conditions compared with historical norms. New supply remained limited, helping stabilize occupancy across shopping centers.
Leasing momentum improved toward year-end, driven by grocery chains, discount retailers and experiential tenants absorbing secondary space. Cushman reported approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2023. Asking rents continued to trend higher on a year-over-year basis to $$25.29 psf, supported by stable tenant sales and foot traffic.
Factors to Consider Ahead of SPG’s Q4 Results
Simon Property Group is likely to have benefited from the strength and scale of its high-quality retail portfolio across both domestic and international markets. Its premium malls continue to attract luxury and high-end tenants, reinforcing the appeal of the portfolio to higher-income consumers who have remained relatively resilient in their spending patterns. As a result, demand for SPG’s properties is expected to have remained healthy. The company’s emphasis on omnichannel retail strategies and deeper partnerships with leading brands is also expected to have driven meaningful gains.
During the third quarter, management highlighted a sequential pickup in shopper traffic and retailer sales, with total sales volumes increasing by more than 4% year over year. This momentum positioned the portfolio favorably heading into the seasonally important fourth quarter. Occupancy levels remained near cycle highs at above 96%, driven by solid leasing activity and an expanding mix of new-to-portfolio tenants, a trend that likely carried through the fourth quarter. Still, potential pressures from tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty remain factors to monitor.
Beyond near-term retail fundamentals, Simon’s continued focus on mixed-use developments is expected to have unlocked incremental growth opportunities in key markets by diversifying income streams. Supported by a strong balance sheet, the company is likely to have sustained its redevelopment and expansion initiatives during the quarter. Overall, despite lingering headwinds, SPG’s diversified platform and concentration of premium assets are expected to have provided stability amid shifting retail conditions.
Projections for SPG
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter lease income is pegged at $1.5 billion, up from $1.43 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for management fees and other revenues stands at $38.10 million, up from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $37.15 million.
In addition, the consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is presently pegged at $1.63 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.84% year over year.
However, the consensus mark for other income stands at $96.71 million, down from $113.56 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Simon Property’s activities during the soon-to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter FFO per share has remained unchanged at $3.47 over the past month. It suggests a 5.71% decrease year over year.
For full-year 2025, Simon Property expected real estate FFO per share to be between $12.60 and $12.70, with the midpoint of $12.65. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for real estate FFO per share is pegged at $12.68 on revenues of $6.14 billion. This calls for a 2.39% year-over-year decrease in real estate FFO per share, while revenues are projected to increase 2.92%.
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for SPG:
Our proven model predicts a likely surprise in terms of FFO per share for Simon Property this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.
Simon Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two other stocks from the retail REIT sector — Regency Centers (REG - Free Report) and Realty Income (O - Free Report) — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to report an earnings surprise this quarter.
Regency Centers, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Realty Income, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.