We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Phillips 66's Q4 Earnings on Deck: Should You Stay Invested or Exit?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
PSX will report Q4 2025 earnings Feb. 4, with consensus EPS of $2.11, sharply higher than last year.
Phillips 66's Q4 revenues are expected to fall 11.3% year over year to $30.2B.
PSX trades at a valuation premium to peers despite benefits from lower crude oil prices.
Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, 2026, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.11 per share, implying a massive improvement from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed two downward estimate movements in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $30.2 billion, suggesting a 11.3% fall from the year-ago actuals.
PSX beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 18.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q4 Earnings Whispers for PSX
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PSX’s Factors to Note
To have an idea of how oil prices behaved in the December quarter last, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK WTI spot prices for October, November and December of 2025 were $60.89 per barrel, $60.06 per barrel and $57.97 per barrel, respectively. Commodity prices were $71.99 per barrel, $69.95 per barrel and $70.12 per barrel, respectively, in October, November and December of 2024, per EIA. Investors should note that the weakness in the crude pricing environment is likely to have aided PSX’s bottom line in the fourth quarter.
PSX’s Price Performance & Valuation
PSX's stock has jumped 21.8% over the past year, almost in line with the industry’s 21.9% improvement. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC - Free Report) , another refining player, has surged 19.9% over the same time frame, while Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) , in the same space, has gained 33.2%.
One-Year Price Chart
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Despite the prices of VLO and the industry outperforming it, PSX appears relatively overvalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 14.68, reflecting that it is trading at a premium compared with the industry average of 4.77.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis of PSX
With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices currently hovering around $61 per barrel, according to data from Oilprice.com, which is significantly lower than a year ago, the overall energy business is now uncertain. However, unlike many other energy players, Phillips 66 is likely to gain from the ongoing crude pricing environment.
This is because Phillips 66 is a leading refining company. Hence, it is able to purchase oil at a lower cost, enabling the production of end products. Additionally, crude prices are likely to remain soft in the coming days, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) expects global oil inventories to continue increasing.
EIA projects the spot average West Texas Intermediate price for 2026 at $52.21 per barrel, lower than $65.40 per barrel for 2025. Thus, Phillips 66, which generates significant margin from its refining activities, is likely to benefit from soft oil prices.
Status of Other Refining Players: VLO, MPC
Valero Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.22. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of 64 cents per share.
MPC will report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3. MPC currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
Last Word
Considering the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to wait for a more favorable entry point, as the company is currently overvalued. Those who own PSX stock may hold on to it to benefit from its long-term growth prospects.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Phillips 66's Q4 Earnings on Deck: Should You Stay Invested or Exit?
Key Takeaways
Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, 2026, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.11 per share, implying a massive improvement from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed two downward estimate movements in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $30.2 billion, suggesting a 11.3% fall from the year-ago actuals.
PSX beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 18.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Q4 Earnings Whispers for PSX
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here.
The leading refiner has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PSX’s Factors to Note
To have an idea of how oil prices behaved in the December quarter last, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK WTI spot prices for October, November and December of 2025 were $60.89 per barrel, $60.06 per barrel and $57.97 per barrel, respectively. Commodity prices were $71.99 per barrel, $69.95 per barrel and $70.12 per barrel, respectively, in October, November and December of 2024, per EIA. Investors should note that the weakness in the crude pricing environment is likely to have aided PSX’s bottom line in the fourth quarter.
PSX’s Price Performance & Valuation
PSX's stock has jumped 21.8% over the past year, almost in line with the industry’s 21.9% improvement. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC - Free Report) , another refining player, has surged 19.9% over the same time frame, while Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) , in the same space, has gained 33.2%.
One-Year Price Chart
Despite the prices of VLO and the industry outperforming it, PSX appears relatively overvalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 14.68, reflecting that it is trading at a premium compared with the industry average of 4.77.
Investment Thesis of PSX
With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices currently hovering around $61 per barrel, according to data from Oilprice.com, which is significantly lower than a year ago, the overall energy business is now uncertain. However, unlike many other energy players, Phillips 66 is likely to gain from the ongoing crude pricing environment.
This is because Phillips 66 is a leading refining company. Hence, it is able to purchase oil at a lower cost, enabling the production of end products. Additionally, crude prices are likely to remain soft in the coming days, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) expects global oil inventories to continue increasing.
EIA projects the spot average West Texas Intermediate price for 2026 at $52.21 per barrel, lower than $65.40 per barrel for 2025. Thus, Phillips 66, which generates significant margin from its refining activities, is likely to benefit from soft oil prices.
Status of Other Refining Players: VLO, MPC
Valero Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.22. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of 64 cents per share.
MPC will report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3. MPC currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
Last Word
Considering the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to wait for a more favorable entry point, as the company is currently overvalued. Those who own PSX stock may hold on to it to benefit from its long-term growth prospects.