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CME Group's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?
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Key Takeaways
CME to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 4, with revenues and EPS expected to rise year over year.
CME's Q4 average daily volume was 27.4M contracts, up 7%, driven by strength in Equities and Metals.
CME sees margin pressure as high compensation and technology costs offset market data revenue gains.
CME Group Inc. (CME - Free Report) is expected to register a decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a 6.7% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.75 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved 1.9% north in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 9.1%.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CME Group this time. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: CME Group has an Earnings ESP of -0.10%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.71 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.75. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CME Group’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from a diverse product portfolio, increased volatility and a strong market position.
Revenues are likely to have benefited from an increase in market data and information services, clearing, transaction fees and other revenues. Higher trading volumes across asset classes due to increased volatility are likely to have driven clearing and transaction fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.3 billion, indicating an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago reported figure.
CME reported a quarterly average daily volume of 27.4 million contracts in the fourth quarter, up 7% year over year. This was due to higher quarterly volumes in Equities and Metals. Agricultural ADV reached 1.8 million contracts, up 2% year on year. Interest Rate and Forex ADV declined 2% and 12%, respectively.
Market data and information services revenues are likely to have gained from price increases for certain products, as well as higher usage of certain products. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter market data and information services revenues is pegged at $203.6 million, indicating an increase of 12.1% from the year-ago reported figure.
Expenses are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter due to higher compensation and benefits and technology expenses.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
S&P Global (SPGI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.29, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13.8%.
SPGI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
RenaissanceRe (RNR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.59, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.4%.
RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.
The Hanover Insurance (THG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.15% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.08, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.5%.
THG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
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CME Group's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?
Key Takeaways
CME Group Inc. (CME - Free Report) is expected to register a decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a 6.7% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.75 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved 1.9% north in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 9.1%.
What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CME Group this time. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: CME Group has an Earnings ESP of -0.10%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.71 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.75. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CME Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
CME Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | CME Group Inc. Quote
Zacks Rank: CME Group currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Q4 Results
CME Group’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from a diverse product portfolio, increased volatility and a strong market position.
Revenues are likely to have benefited from an increase in market data and information services, clearing, transaction fees and other revenues.
Higher trading volumes across asset classes due to increased volatility are likely to have driven clearing and transaction fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.3 billion, indicating an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago reported figure.
CME reported a quarterly average daily volume of 27.4 million contracts in the fourth quarter, up 7% year over year. This was due to higher quarterly volumes in Equities and Metals. Agricultural ADV reached 1.8 million contracts, up 2% year on year. Interest Rate and Forex ADV declined 2% and 12%, respectively.
Market data and information services revenues are likely to have gained from price increases for certain products, as well as higher usage of certain products. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter market data and information services revenues is pegged at $203.6 million, indicating an increase of 12.1% from the year-ago reported figure.
Expenses are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter due to higher compensation and benefits and technology expenses.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
S&P Global (SPGI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.29, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13.8%.
SPGI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
RenaissanceRe (RNR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.59, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.4%.
RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.
The Hanover Insurance (THG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.15% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.08, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.5%.
THG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.