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MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters. It came in line once and fell short once, translating into an average negative earnings surprise of 0.4%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.04, indicating a rise of 7.4% from $2.83 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.83 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly Results
McDonald’s fourth-quarter 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from strengthened value positioning, sustained digital engagement and continued unit expansion. Improved traffic trends driven by the nationwide relaunch of Extra Value Meals (EVM), strong promotional activity such as the MONOPOLY campaign and continued menu innovation are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
In the United States, comparable sales growth is expected to have accelerated sequentially, aided by easier year-over-year comparisons, heightened marketing intensity and improving consumer awareness of EVM price points. Our model predicts fourth-quarter U.S. comps to rise 2.9% year over year. Digital momentum is likely to have remained a key tailwind, supported by rising app engagement, loyalty growth and strong digital-led promotions.
International operations are expected to have delivered resilient performance in the fourth quarter, supported by disciplined value execution and locally relevant marketing initiatives across key markets. Strength in International Operated Markets such as Germany and Australia is likely to have continued, driven by consistent share gains, effective pricing strategies and strong promotional execution. Our model predicts fourth-quarter International Operated Markets revenues to rise 12.3% year over year to $1.61 billion.
However, macroeconomic challenges, including elevated food and labor cost inflation, cautious lower-income consumer behavior and ongoing pricing pressures in select international markets, are likely to have weighed on overall profitability in the fourth quarter. Margin performance is expected to have been pressured by higher beef and wage costs, along with continued corporate support for U.S. value initiatives and elevated marketing spend tied to the EVM relaunch. Our model predicts fourth-quarter total operating costs and expenses to rise 4.5% year over year to $3.67 billion.
What Our Model Says About MCD Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -1.18%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, BJ's Restaurants’ earnings are expected to register a 27.7% year-over-year increase. BJRI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 155.6%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Domino's earnings are expected to register a 9.6% year-over-year rise. Domino's earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 1.1%.
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McDonald's to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026.
MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters. It came in line once and fell short once, translating into an average negative earnings surprise of 0.4%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.04, indicating a rise of 7.4% from $2.83 reported in the year-ago quarter.
McDonald's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
McDonald's Corporation price-eps-surprise | McDonald's Corporation Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.83 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly Results
McDonald’s fourth-quarter 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from strengthened value positioning, sustained digital engagement and continued unit expansion. Improved traffic trends driven by the nationwide relaunch of Extra Value Meals (EVM), strong promotional activity such as the MONOPOLY campaign and continued menu innovation are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
In the United States, comparable sales growth is expected to have accelerated sequentially, aided by easier year-over-year comparisons, heightened marketing intensity and improving consumer awareness of EVM price points. Our model predicts fourth-quarter U.S. comps to rise 2.9% year over year. Digital momentum is likely to have remained a key tailwind, supported by rising app engagement, loyalty growth and strong digital-led promotions.
International operations are expected to have delivered resilient performance in the fourth quarter, supported by disciplined value execution and locally relevant marketing initiatives across key markets. Strength in International Operated Markets such as Germany and Australia is likely to have continued, driven by consistent share gains, effective pricing strategies and strong promotional execution. Our model predicts fourth-quarter International Operated Markets revenues to rise 12.3% year over year to $1.61 billion.
However, macroeconomic challenges, including elevated food and labor cost inflation, cautious lower-income consumer behavior and ongoing pricing pressures in select international markets, are likely to have weighed on overall profitability in the fourth quarter. Margin performance is expected to have been pressured by higher beef and wage costs, along with continued corporate support for U.S. value initiatives and elevated marketing spend tied to the EVM relaunch. Our model predicts fourth-quarter total operating costs and expenses to rise 4.5% year over year to $3.67 billion.
What Our Model Says About MCD Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -1.18%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
McDonald’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, BJ's Restaurants’ earnings are expected to register a 27.7% year-over-year increase. BJRI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 155.6%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Domino's earnings are expected to register a 9.6% year-over-year rise. Domino's earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average beat of 1.1%.