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NGD Swells 242% in the Past Year: Should You Buy the Stock Now?
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Key Takeaways
New Gold produced 107,778 oz gold and 11M lbs copper in Q4 2025, led by Rainy River output.
New Gold's Rainy River output rose on higher grades, stronger mill throughput and underground ramp-up.
NGD generated $300.7M operating cash flow and repaid $150M from its credit facility.
New Gold Inc. has skyrocketed 242.1% over the past year compared with the Zacks Mining-Gold industry’s 131.2% increase and the S&P 500’s modest 26.1% rise.
Among its peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU - Free Report) are up 154.5% and 227.4% over the same period, respectively.
Price Performance of NGD vs. Industry, S&P 500, NEM and AU
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Technical indicators show that NGD has been trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s look at the NGD’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Higher Grades and Throughput Boost Output for New Gold
New Gold reported strong operational performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, with consolidated production supported primarily by higher output from the Rainy River Mine, which offset lower production from the New Afton Mine.
The company produced 107,778 ounces of gold and 11 million pounds of copper in the quarter, reflecting 2% growth and 24% decline, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The quarterly figures contributed significantly to fiscal 2025 production of 353,772 ounces of gold and 50.1 million pounds of copper.
Rainy River remained the dominant contributor, producing 94,423 ounces of gold in the quarter, representing roughly 88% of the company’s quarterly gold production. The improvement was driven by higher ore grades, increased mill throughput and the continued ramp-up of underground mining operations.
Average mill throughput increased to 26,480 tons per day from 22,656 tons per day a year ago. The gold grade improved to 1.29 g/t from 0.97 g/t, representing approximately 33% grade growth. The strip ratio declined to 0.79 from 2.47, indicating significantly lower waste stripping and improved mining efficiency.
Production at New Afton declined year over year due to the depletion of the B3 cave and the ongoing ramp-up of the C-Zone, which temporarily resulted in lower processed grades.
The mine produced 13,355 ounces of gold and 11.0 million pounds of copper in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with 19,652 ounces of gold and 14.5 million pounds of copper in the year-ago quarter. It reflects a 32% year-over-year decline in gold production and roughly a 24% fall in copper output.
Production Drivers Supporting Cash Flow for NGD
The company ended the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $123.3 million, reflecting improved liquidity and operational performance.
New Gold generated $300.7 million in cash from operating activities in the third quarter, representing a 135% year-over-year increase. It is driven by higher metal prices, stronger gold sales volumes and lower operating costs per ounce. Strong operating cash flow and disciplined capital spending enabled the company to generate a record free cash flow of approximately $204.7 million.
Higher production and underground mining ramp-up at Rainy River, along with stable copper output from New Afton, are likely to have sustained strong operating cash flow and free cash flow in the fourth quarter.
Capital expenditures during the third quarter totaled about $75.6 million, including roughly $19 million of sustaining capital and $56 million of growth capital. It was directed toward underground development and expansion activities at Rainy River and continued development work at the New Afton Mine.
The robust cash generation also allowed New Gold to significantly strengthen its balance sheet by repaying $150 million drawn under its credit facility and redeeming the remaining $111 million of its 2027 senior notes.
Lower leverage following the debt repayments should also reduce financing costs and strengthen the balance sheet. This will allow the company to prioritize additional debt reduction, liquidity build-up and disciplined reinvestment into growth projects for the fourth quarter and the near future.
NGD’s Strategic Developments at Core Mining Assets
New Gold has been advancing several key development initiatives across its core assets, the Rainy River Mine and the New Afton Mine, aimed at improving production stability and extending mine life.
The company is boosting the Underground Main expansion, with key infrastructure completed and the first ore recently mined. Underground production is expected to ramp up to around 5,500 tons per day in the coming years, supporting higher-grade mill feed.
At New Afton, the C-Zone block cave project has reached commercial production and continues ramping up to replace the depleted B3 zone, supporting long-term gold and copper output. The company is also advancing the East Extension project, a high-grade deposit expected to begin production around mid-2026.
It will enhance the mine’s grade profile and supplement C-Zone production. Updated life-of-mine plans and ongoing exploration at both sites are expected to extend operations into the next decade, strengthening New Gold’s long-term production outlook and free cash flow potential.
New Gold announced that it has agreed to be acquired by Coeur Mining, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at about $7 billion. The deal will make New Gold shareholders owners of approximately 38% of the combined company, while Coeur Mining shareholders will hold the remaining 62%.
The transaction is expected to enhance New Gold’s scale and financial strength by combining its key assets, including the Rainy River and New Afton mines, with Coeur Mining’s portfolio to form a larger North American precious metals producer. The acquisition has been approved by both companies’ boards and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings for NGD has been revised higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGD’s fiscal 2025 earnings is currently pegged at 66 cents per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 230%, and for 2026 at $1.64 per share, implying 148.5% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NGD is Trading Below Industry
NGD is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 6.99X, below the industry average of 13.1X. NGD currently has a Value Score of D, while NEM and AU have a score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiples for Newmont and AngloGold are 12.99X and 11.5X, respectively.
Final Thoughts: Buy NGD Now
New Gold maintains a positive outlook, supporting a buy recommendation despite some near-term operational challenges. Strong fourth-quarter operational performance was largely driven by higher grades, improved mill throughput and the continued underground ramp-up at the Rainy River Mine, which helped offset weaker production at the New Afton Mine due to the depletion of the B3 cave and the ongoing ramp-up of the C-Zone.
This transition temporarily pressured gold and copper output. The C-Zone and the planned East Extension project are expected to improve grades and support long-term production growth. Strong operating cash flow, record free cash flow and recent debt repayments have strengthened the company’s balance sheet and reduced leverage. A lower valuation further makes the stock attractive to investors.
NGD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
NGD Swells 242% in the Past Year: Should You Buy the Stock Now?
Key Takeaways
New Gold Inc. has skyrocketed 242.1% over the past year compared with the Zacks Mining-Gold industry’s 131.2% increase and the S&P 500’s modest 26.1% rise.
Among its peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU - Free Report) are up 154.5% and 227.4% over the same period, respectively.
Price Performance of NGD vs. Industry, S&P 500, NEM and AU
Technical indicators show that NGD has been trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
Let’s look at the NGD’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Higher Grades and Throughput Boost Output for New Gold
New Gold reported strong operational performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, with consolidated production supported primarily by higher output from the Rainy River Mine, which offset lower production from the New Afton Mine.
The company produced 107,778 ounces of gold and 11 million pounds of copper in the quarter, reflecting 2% growth and 24% decline, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The quarterly figures contributed significantly to fiscal 2025 production of 353,772 ounces of gold and 50.1 million pounds of copper.
Rainy River remained the dominant contributor, producing 94,423 ounces of gold in the quarter, representing roughly 88% of the company’s quarterly gold production. The improvement was driven by higher ore grades, increased mill throughput and the continued ramp-up of underground mining operations.
Average mill throughput increased to 26,480 tons per day from 22,656 tons per day a year ago. The gold grade improved to 1.29 g/t from 0.97 g/t, representing approximately 33% grade growth. The strip ratio declined to 0.79 from 2.47, indicating significantly lower waste stripping and improved mining efficiency.
Production at New Afton declined year over year due to the depletion of the B3 cave and the ongoing ramp-up of the C-Zone, which temporarily resulted in lower processed grades.
The mine produced 13,355 ounces of gold and 11.0 million pounds of copper in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with 19,652 ounces of gold and 14.5 million pounds of copper in the year-ago quarter. It reflects a 32% year-over-year decline in gold production and roughly a 24% fall in copper output.
Production Drivers Supporting Cash Flow for NGD
The company ended the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $123.3 million, reflecting improved liquidity and operational performance.
New Gold generated $300.7 million in cash from operating activities in the third quarter, representing a 135% year-over-year increase. It is driven by higher metal prices, stronger gold sales volumes and lower operating costs per ounce. Strong operating cash flow and disciplined capital spending enabled the company to generate a record free cash flow of approximately $204.7 million.
Higher production and underground mining ramp-up at Rainy River, along with stable copper output from New Afton, are likely to have sustained strong operating cash flow and free cash flow in the fourth quarter.
Capital expenditures during the third quarter totaled about $75.6 million, including roughly $19 million of sustaining capital and $56 million of growth capital. It was directed toward underground development and expansion activities at Rainy River and continued development work at the New Afton Mine.
The robust cash generation also allowed New Gold to significantly strengthen its balance sheet by repaying $150 million drawn under its credit facility and redeeming the remaining $111 million of its 2027 senior notes.
Lower leverage following the debt repayments should also reduce financing costs and strengthen the balance sheet. This will allow the company to prioritize additional debt reduction, liquidity build-up and disciplined reinvestment into growth projects for the fourth quarter and the near future.
NGD’s Strategic Developments at Core Mining Assets
New Gold has been advancing several key development initiatives across its core assets, the Rainy River Mine and the New Afton Mine, aimed at improving production stability and extending mine life.
The company is boosting the Underground Main expansion, with key infrastructure completed and the first ore recently mined. Underground production is expected to ramp up to around 5,500 tons per day in the coming years, supporting higher-grade mill feed.
At New Afton, the C-Zone block cave project has reached commercial production and continues ramping up to replace the depleted B3 zone, supporting long-term gold and copper output. The company is also advancing the East Extension project, a high-grade deposit expected to begin production around mid-2026.
It will enhance the mine’s grade profile and supplement C-Zone production. Updated life-of-mine plans and ongoing exploration at both sites are expected to extend operations into the next decade, strengthening New Gold’s long-term production outlook and free cash flow potential.
New Gold announced that it has agreed to be acquired by Coeur Mining, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at about $7 billion. The deal will make New Gold shareholders owners of approximately 38% of the combined company, while Coeur Mining shareholders will hold the remaining 62%.
The transaction is expected to enhance New Gold’s scale and financial strength by combining its key assets, including the Rainy River and New Afton mines, with Coeur Mining’s portfolio to form a larger North American precious metals producer. The acquisition has been approved by both companies’ boards and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.
NGD’s Rising Earnings Estimates Reflect Positive Sentiments
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings for NGD has been revised higher over the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGD’s fiscal 2025 earnings is currently pegged at 66 cents per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 230%, and for 2026 at $1.64 per share, implying 148.5% growth.
NGD is Trading Below Industry
NGD is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 6.99X, below the industry average of 13.1X. NGD currently has a Value Score of D, while NEM and AU have a score of C.
The forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiples for Newmont and AngloGold are 12.99X and 11.5X, respectively.
Final Thoughts: Buy NGD Now
New Gold maintains a positive outlook, supporting a buy recommendation despite some near-term operational challenges. Strong fourth-quarter operational performance was largely driven by higher grades, improved mill throughput and the continued underground ramp-up at the Rainy River Mine, which helped offset weaker production at the New Afton Mine due to the depletion of the B3 cave and the ongoing ramp-up of the C-Zone.
This transition temporarily pressured gold and copper output. The C-Zone and the planned East Extension project are expected to improve grades and support long-term production growth. Strong operating cash flow, record free cash flow and recent debt repayments have strengthened the company’s balance sheet and reduced leverage. A lower valuation further makes the stock attractive to investors.
NGD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.