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Why Is Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hilton Worldwide due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Hilton reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
Hilton’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were supported by steady demand trends, year-over-year RevPAR growth and continued expansion of its global footprint. The company added new hotels during the quarter and delivered strong net unit growth while maintaining a robust development pipeline that provides solid long-term visibility. Continued expansion of its luxury and lifestyle portfolio, along with new brand launches such as the Apartment Collection by Hilton, also contributed positively to overall performance.
Hilton’s Q4 Results in Detail
Hilton reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.00. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $1.76.
Total revenues of $3.09 billion beat the consensus mark of $2.99 billion by 3.3% and increased 10.9% on a year-over-year basis.
The quarter’s franchise and licensing fees improved year over year to $671 million from $642 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $718.9 million.
Base and other management fees increased year over year to $98 million from $82 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Incentive management fees were up 17.4% year over year to $101 million. Our model projected base and other management and incentive management fees to be $92 million and $71.1 million, respectively.
Ownership revenues were $345 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s level of $333 million. We expected the metric to be $345.6 million.
HLT’s RevPAR & Adjusted EBITDA
In the fourth quarter, the system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 0.5% year over year (on a currency-neutral basis).
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $946 million, up 10.3% year over year. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA was $928.8 million.
Balance Sheet of HLT
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Hilton’s total cash and cash equivalents were $970 million compared with $1,126 million as of third-quarter 2025. Hilton carried $12.5 billion in total debt, with a weighted average interest rate of about 4.8% as of Dec. 31, 2025. Excluding finance lease obligations, total debt stood at $12.1 billion, also at a 4.8% average rate, with no significant maturities before April 2027. The company noted it has ample liquidity and access to capital markets to comfortably meet upcoming debt obligations.
In fourth-quarter 2025, HLT repurchased 2.8 million of its common stock, bringing total capital return to $3.3 billion for the full year.
Hilton’s Business Updates
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Hilton added 190 hotels totaling approximately 26,000 rooms and achieved net room growth of about 21,300 rooms. During the quarter, the company continued to expand its luxury and lifestyle portfolio through several notable openings and signings, including the Waldorf Astoria Shanghai Qiantan in China and more than 10 Tapestry Collection properties. These included the Anise Aluma Athens, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, in Greece, and the Diyar Ajwa, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, in Saudi Arabia, further strengthening the global presence of Hilton’s lifestyle brands.
In January 2026, Hilton announced the launch of a new brand, Apartment Collection by Hilton, which is expected to add up to 3,000 incremental units to its existing base of apartment-style accommodations within the system, with bookings anticipated to begin in the first half of 2026.
In the fourth quarter, Hilton grew its development pipeline by 37,400 rooms. By Dec. 31, 2025, the pipeline included 3,703 hotels with about 520,500 rooms across 129 countries and territories, 26 of which currently have no Hilton presence. Nearly half of these rooms are already under construction and more than half are located in international markets outside the United States.
HLT’s 2025 Highlights
Revenues for 2025 came in at $12.04 billion compared with $11.17 billion reported in 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 came in at $3.72 billion compared with $3.43 billion reported in 2024.
In 2025, adjusted EPS came in at $8.11 compared with $7.12 reported in the previous year.
HLT’s Q1 & 2026 Outlook
For first-quarter 2026, Hilton anticipates net income to be in the range of $436-$450 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $875 million and $995 million. It predicts adjusted EPS between $1.91 and $1.97.
For the first quarter of 2026, management forecasts system-wide RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) to increase in the range of 1-2% on a year-over-year basis.
For 2026, HLT estimates net income to be in the range of $1.98-$2.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4 billion and $4.04 billion. It predicts general and administrative expenses to be approximately $400 million.
Full-year adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of $8.65-$8.77. The capital return is anticipated to be about $3.5 billion.
Management anticipates the 2026 system-wide RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) to increase in the range of 1-2% compared to 2025.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hilton Worldwide has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Hilton Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hilton Worldwide due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Hilton Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
Hilton reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
Hilton’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were supported by steady demand trends, year-over-year RevPAR growth and continued expansion of its global footprint. The company added new hotels during the quarter and delivered strong net unit growth while maintaining a robust development pipeline that provides solid long-term visibility. Continued expansion of its luxury and lifestyle portfolio, along with new brand launches such as the Apartment Collection by Hilton, also contributed positively to overall performance.
Hilton’s Q4 Results in Detail
Hilton reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.00. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $1.76.
Total revenues of $3.09 billion beat the consensus mark of $2.99 billion by 3.3% and increased 10.9% on a year-over-year basis.
The quarter’s franchise and licensing fees improved year over year to $671 million from $642 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $718.9 million.
Base and other management fees increased year over year to $98 million from $82 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Incentive management fees were up 17.4% year over year to $101 million. Our model projected base and other management and incentive management fees to be $92 million and $71.1 million, respectively.
Ownership revenues were $345 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s level of $333 million. We expected the metric to be $345.6 million.
HLT’s RevPAR & Adjusted EBITDA
In the fourth quarter, the system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 0.5% year over year (on a currency-neutral basis).
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $946 million, up 10.3% year over year. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA was $928.8 million.
Balance Sheet of HLT
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Hilton’s total cash and cash equivalents were $970 million compared with $1,126 million as of third-quarter 2025. Hilton carried $12.5 billion in total debt, with a weighted average interest rate of about 4.8% as of Dec. 31, 2025. Excluding finance lease obligations, total debt stood at $12.1 billion, also at a 4.8% average rate, with no significant maturities before April 2027. The company noted it has ample liquidity and access to capital markets to comfortably meet upcoming debt obligations.
In fourth-quarter 2025, HLT repurchased 2.8 million of its common stock, bringing total capital return to $3.3 billion for the full year.
Hilton’s Business Updates
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Hilton added 190 hotels totaling approximately 26,000 rooms and achieved net room growth of about 21,300 rooms. During the quarter, the company continued to expand its luxury and lifestyle portfolio through several notable openings and signings, including the Waldorf Astoria Shanghai Qiantan in China and more than 10 Tapestry Collection properties. These included the Anise Aluma Athens, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, in Greece, and the Diyar Ajwa, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, in Saudi Arabia, further strengthening the global presence of Hilton’s lifestyle brands.
In January 2026, Hilton announced the launch of a new brand, Apartment Collection by Hilton, which is expected to add up to 3,000 incremental units to its existing base of apartment-style accommodations within the system, with bookings anticipated to begin in the first half of 2026.
In the fourth quarter, Hilton grew its development pipeline by 37,400 rooms. By Dec. 31, 2025, the pipeline included 3,703 hotels with about 520,500 rooms across 129 countries and territories, 26 of which currently have no Hilton presence. Nearly half of these rooms are already under construction and more than half are located in international markets outside the United States.
HLT’s 2025 Highlights
Revenues for 2025 came in at $12.04 billion compared with $11.17 billion reported in 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 came in at $3.72 billion compared with $3.43 billion reported in 2024.
In 2025, adjusted EPS came in at $8.11 compared with $7.12 reported in the previous year.
HLT’s Q1 & 2026 Outlook
For first-quarter 2026, Hilton anticipates net income to be in the range of $436-$450 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $875 million and $995 million. It predicts adjusted EPS between $1.91 and $1.97.
For the first quarter of 2026, management forecasts system-wide RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) to increase in the range of 1-2% on a year-over-year basis.
For 2026, HLT estimates net income to be in the range of $1.98-$2.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4 billion and $4.04 billion. It predicts general and administrative expenses to be approximately $400 million.
Full-year adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of $8.65-$8.77. The capital return is anticipated to be about $3.5 billion.
Management anticipates the 2026 system-wide RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) to increase in the range of 1-2% compared to 2025.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hilton Worldwide has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Hilton Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.