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Red Robin (RRGB) Down 40.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Red Robin (RRGB - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 40.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Red Robin due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Red Robin Q4 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates
Red Robin reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $269.0 million, down from $285.2 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $274 million. Comparable restaurant revenue declined 3.1%, including deferred loyalty revenue, reflecting lower guest traffic during the quarter.
On the bottom line, the company posted an adjusted loss of 41 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. This compared favorably with an adjusted loss of 86 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Net loss was $10.1 million, compared with a loss of $39.7 million last year.
Margins & Profitability
Red Robin reported restaurant-level operating profit of $30.2 million, compared with $32.2 million in the prior year. Restaurant-level operating margin stood at 11.4%, down 10 basis points year over year. Adjusted EBITDA declined 18% year over year to $11.8 million. Operating loss narrowed to $4.0 million, or negative 1.5% of revenues, versus a loss of $33.5 million last year.
Q4 Balance Sheet & Liquidity
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $19.9 million. Total liquidity was about $56.9 million, including availability under the credit facility. Long-term debt stood at $164.7 million, down from $181.6 million at the end of the prior year.
RRGB’s FY26 Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Red Robin expects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, excluding deferred loyalty revenue. Restaurant-level operating margin is projected at around 13%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $70 million to $73 million. Capital spending is planned between $25 million and $30 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 5% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Red Robin has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Red Robin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Red Robin (RRGB) Down 40.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Red Robin (RRGB - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 40.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Red Robin due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Red Robin Q4 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates
Red Robin reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $269.0 million, down from $285.2 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $274 million. Comparable restaurant revenue declined 3.1%, including deferred loyalty revenue, reflecting lower guest traffic during the quarter.
On the bottom line, the company posted an adjusted loss of 41 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. This compared favorably with an adjusted loss of 86 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Net loss was $10.1 million, compared with a loss of $39.7 million last year.
Margins & Profitability
Red Robin reported restaurant-level operating profit of $30.2 million, compared with $32.2 million in the prior year. Restaurant-level operating margin stood at 11.4%, down 10 basis points year over year. Adjusted EBITDA declined 18% year over year to $11.8 million. Operating loss narrowed to $4.0 million, or negative 1.5% of revenues, versus a loss of $33.5 million last year.
Q4 Balance Sheet & Liquidity
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $19.9 million. Total liquidity was about $56.9 million, including availability under the credit facility. Long-term debt stood at $164.7 million, down from $181.6 million at the end of the prior year.
RRGB’s FY26 Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Red Robin expects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, excluding deferred loyalty revenue. Restaurant-level operating margin is projected at around 13%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $70 million to $73 million. Capital spending is planned between $25 million and $30 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 5% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Red Robin has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Red Robin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.