Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Exxon Mobil?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Exxon Mobil (XOM Quick QuoteXOM - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.07 a share 29 days away from its upcoming earnings release on May 1, 2026.

Exxon Mobil's Earnings ESP sits at +15.42%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.8. XOM is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

XOM is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Diamondback Energy (FANG Quick QuoteFANG - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on May 4, 2026, Diamondback Energy holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $3.29 a share 32 days from its next quarterly update.

For Diamondback Energy, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.06 is +7.55%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, XOM and FANG could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>