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Will Falling Gold Production Weigh on Newmont's FY26 Performance?
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Key Takeaways
NEM reported a 24% year over year drop in Q4 gold output and a 14% decline for full-year production.
NEM expects 2026 output of 5.26 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year decline.
Newmont sees AISC to rise to $1,680 per ounce in 2026 due to lower volumes and higher royalties and taxes.
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) saw lower gold production for the fourth quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 24% year-over-year decline in gold production to 1.45 million ounces, although increasing modestly from the prior quarter. The company also reported a roughly 14% year-over-year decline in gold production in 2025, reaching 5.89 million ounces.
The company anticipates gold production for 2026 at about 5.26 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year decline. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
Looking across the competitive landscape, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) saw a 19% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gold production to 871,000 ounces. Lower production, mainly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the year-over-year rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025. Barrick provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited’s (AEM - Free Report) payable gold production was 840,608 ounces in the fourth quarter, down from 847,401 ounces in the prior-year quarter. For full-year 2025, Agnico Eagle produced 3,447,367 ounces of gold. Agnico Eagle expects production to remain stable at roughly 3.3-3.5 million ounces annually from 2026 to 2028.
The Zacks Rundown for NEM
Shares of Newmont have shot up 132% in the past year against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 93.5%, largely driven by the gold price rally.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.92, a roughly 6.4% premium to the industry average of 12.14X. It carries a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 30% and 9.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NEM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Will Falling Gold Production Weigh on Newmont's FY26 Performance?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) saw lower gold production for the fourth quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 24% year-over-year decline in gold production to 1.45 million ounces, although increasing modestly from the prior quarter. The company also reported a roughly 14% year-over-year decline in gold production in 2025, reaching 5.89 million ounces.
The company anticipates gold production for 2026 at about 5.26 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year decline. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
Looking across the competitive landscape, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) saw a 19% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gold production to 871,000 ounces. Lower production, mainly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the year-over-year rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025. Barrick provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited’s (AEM - Free Report) payable gold production was 840,608 ounces in the fourth quarter, down from 847,401 ounces in the prior-year quarter. For full-year 2025, Agnico Eagle produced 3,447,367 ounces of gold. Agnico Eagle expects production to remain stable at roughly 3.3-3.5 million ounces annually from 2026 to 2028.
The Zacks Rundown for NEM
Shares of Newmont have shot up 132% in the past year against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 93.5%, largely driven by the gold price rally.
From a valuation standpoint, NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.92, a roughly 6.4% premium to the industry average of 12.14X. It carries a Value Score of B.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 30% and 9.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
NEM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.