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How to Play Goldman Stock Ahead of Its Q1 Earnings Release?
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Key Takeaways
Goldman set to post Q1 results on April 13, with revenues likely to rise 12.9% y/y.
GS market-making and trading were likely aided by volatility and strong client activity across asset classes.
Goldman faces higher expenses from tech investments and growth efforts despite solid revenues.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 13, 2026, before the opening bell.
GS’s 2025 performance was impressive, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading, and solid revenue growth in the Global Banking & Markets, and Asset & Wealth Management divisions. However, the overall quarterly results were tempered by elevated operating expenses.
Goldman has a strong history of earnings surprises. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 14.02%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us see how GS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $17.01 billion, calling for a 12.9% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $16.48 per share. The projection suggests an increase of 16.7% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Shape GS’s Q1 Results
Market-Making Revenues: The first quarter saw solid client activities and market volatility. Major factors that influenced trading business in the quarter included shifting expectations around artificial intelligence (AI), rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over the Middle East, persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Therefore, Goldman's market-making revenues are likely to have witnessed a rise in the quarter to be reported.
IB Fees: Deal-making activity was impressive in the first quarter of 2026, despite the Middle Eastern conflict and the ensuing uncertainty about its impact on the economy in the last month of the quarter. Though global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) volume declined year over year, deal value was up as big transactions dominated the space. The quarter saw a rise in the deal value, driven by lower capital costs, and a focus on scale and AI integration. With the IB backlog at a four-year high and a leadership position, the company is likely to have witnessed higher advisory fees in the quarter to be reported.
The initial public offering (IPO) market in the first quarter performed impressively, with issuance volume improving despite fewer companies getting listed. Also, global bond issuance volume was solid. As such, GS’s leadership position in worldwide announced and completed M&As, equity and equity-related offerings is likely to have provided it an edge over its peers, offering support to the company’s quarterly IB revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, suggesting a 33.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Net Interest Income (NII): Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for overall loans was decent in the first two months of the quarter. This is likely to have aided Goldman's loan growth.
Also, the Fed kept interest rates steady in the first quarter of 2026. Hence, a decent lending scenario and stabilizing funding/deposit costs are likely to have supported GS’s NII in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $3.7 billion, suggesting a 27.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Expenses: Goldman’s investments in technology and market development expenses for business expansion, along with a rise in transaction-based expenses due to higher client activities, are anticipated to have led to increased expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Unveils for Goldman
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for GS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you can see below.
Goldman has an Earnings ESP of +1.48%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
In the first quarter of 2026, Goldman's shares lost 3.7% compared with the industry’s decline of 8.6%. Its close peer JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley’s (MS - Free Report) shares also plunged. JPMorgan shares fell 8.7% and Morgan Stanley declined 7.3%.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us look at the value GS offers investors at the current levels.
Currently, Goldman is trading at 16.98X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 15.13X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat expensive compared with the industry average. Its peer, JPMorgan, is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 13.95X, whereas Morgan Stanley is trading at 15.17X.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Approach GS Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?
Goldman continues to streamline its operations by exiting underperforming, non-core consumer banking ventures and sharpening its focus on its core strengths, particularly its asset and wealth management businesses. This strategic shift is aimed at building a more stable and recurring revenue base.
A robust M&A environment and a healthy deal pipeline continue to support momentum in investment banking. Goldman’s expanding private credit and alternatives platform, rising assets under supervision, and firmwide AI transformation through initiatives like OneGS 3.0 position the company to improve efficiency, enhance client offerings and generate higher fee-based revenues.
The firm’s strong capital base, attractive dividend yield and active share-repurchase program further reinforce shareholder returns. Operational efficiency remains central to Goldman’s growth strategy. The company is making steady progress toward its mid-term targets of a 14-16% return on equity and a 60% efficiency ratio.
However, despite solid fundamentals and promising growth prospects, broader macroeconomic and policy trends that could materially shape the company’s performance trajectory should be carefully considered. Goldman’s stock is also currently trading at a premium relative to the industry average.
As such, investors looking to initiate a position in GS stock may benefit from waiting until after the quarterly earnings release for greater clarity and potentially a more attractive entry point. Existing shareholders can consider holding on to the stock, as its long-term outlook remains strong and it is unlikely to disappoint over time.
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How to Play Goldman Stock Ahead of Its Q1 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 13, 2026, before the opening bell.
GS’s 2025 performance was impressive, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading, and solid revenue growth in the Global Banking & Markets, and Asset & Wealth Management divisions. However, the overall quarterly results were tempered by elevated operating expenses.
Goldman has a strong history of earnings surprises. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 14.02%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us see how GS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $17.01 billion, calling for a 12.9% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $16.48 per share. The projection suggests an increase of 16.7% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Shape GS’s Q1 Results
Market-Making Revenues: The first quarter saw solid client activities and market volatility. Major factors that influenced trading business in the quarter included shifting expectations around artificial intelligence (AI), rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over the Middle East, persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Therefore, Goldman's market-making revenues are likely to have witnessed a rise in the quarter to be reported.
IB Fees: Deal-making activity was impressive in the first quarter of 2026, despite the Middle Eastern conflict and the ensuing uncertainty about its impact on the economy in the last month of the quarter. Though global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) volume declined year over year, deal value was up as big transactions dominated the space. The quarter saw a rise in the deal value, driven by lower capital costs, and a focus on scale and AI integration. With the IB backlog at a four-year high and a leadership position, the company is likely to have witnessed higher advisory fees in the quarter to be reported.
The initial public offering (IPO) market in the first quarter performed impressively, with issuance volume improving despite fewer companies getting listed. Also, global bond issuance volume was solid. As such, GS’s leadership position in worldwide announced and completed M&As, equity and equity-related offerings is likely to have provided it an edge over its peers, offering support to the company’s quarterly IB revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, suggesting a 33.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Net Interest Income (NII): Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for overall loans was decent in the first two months of the quarter. This is likely to have aided Goldman's loan growth.
Also, the Fed kept interest rates steady in the first quarter of 2026. Hence, a decent lending scenario and stabilizing funding/deposit costs are likely to have supported GS’s NII in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $3.7 billion, suggesting a 27.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Expenses: Goldman’s investments in technology and market development expenses for business expansion, along with a rise in transaction-based expenses due to higher client activities, are anticipated to have led to increased expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Unveils for Goldman
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for GS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you can see below.
Goldman has an Earnings ESP of +1.48%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
GS carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
GS’s Price Performance & Valuation
In the first quarter of 2026, Goldman's shares lost 3.7% compared with the industry’s decline of 8.6%. Its close peer JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley’s (MS - Free Report) shares also plunged. JPMorgan shares fell 8.7% and Morgan Stanley declined 7.3%.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us look at the value GS offers investors at the current levels.
Currently, Goldman is trading at 16.98X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 15.13X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat expensive compared with the industry average. Its peer, JPMorgan, is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 13.95X, whereas Morgan Stanley is trading at 15.17X.
Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Approach GS Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?
Goldman continues to streamline its operations by exiting underperforming, non-core consumer banking ventures and sharpening its focus on its core strengths, particularly its asset and wealth management businesses. This strategic shift is aimed at building a more stable and recurring revenue base.
A robust M&A environment and a healthy deal pipeline continue to support momentum in investment banking. Goldman’s expanding private credit and alternatives platform, rising assets under supervision, and firmwide AI transformation through initiatives like OneGS 3.0 position the company to improve efficiency, enhance client offerings and generate higher fee-based revenues.
The firm’s strong capital base, attractive dividend yield and active share-repurchase program further reinforce shareholder returns. Operational efficiency remains central to Goldman’s growth strategy. The company is making steady progress toward its mid-term targets of a 14-16% return on equity and a 60% efficiency ratio.
However, despite solid fundamentals and promising growth prospects, broader macroeconomic and policy trends that could materially shape the company’s performance trajectory should be carefully considered. Goldman’s stock is also currently trading at a premium relative to the industry average.
As such, investors looking to initiate a position in GS stock may benefit from waiting until after the quarterly earnings release for greater clarity and potentially a more attractive entry point. Existing shareholders can consider holding on to the stock, as its long-term outlook remains strong and it is unlikely to disappoint over time.