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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Support U.S. Bancorp's Q1 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
USB is set to report Q1'26 results with expected rises in revenues and earnings.
NII growth and loan demand strength are likely to support the overall performance.
Capital markets and fee income gains may offset weaker mortgage banking revenues.
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. Bancorp benefited from lower expenses and higher non-interest income. Also, a rise in net interest income (NII) and a strong capital position were tailwinds. However, a rise in provision was concerning.
USB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 5.89%, on average.
In January 2026, U.S. Bancorp agreed to acquire BTIG, LLC for $1 billion in a stock-and-cash transaction, marking a significant step in the bank’s efforts to expand its capital markets capabilities and deepen relationships with institutional clients. The deal builds on a long-standing referral partnership between the two firms and positions U.S. Bancorp to enhance its product breadth across equity and advisory services.
The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.
The acquisition will allow U.S. Bancorp to add institutional equity sales and trading, equity capital markets, electronic trading, and mergers and acquisitions advisory to its existing offerings. This broader suite of services is expected to accelerate the bank’s capital market momentum and strengthen its ability to serve corporate and institutional clients.
Management expects the deal to have a minimal impact on earnings per share in 2026. However, the transaction will likely result in a 12-basis-point reduction in the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio at closing. Additionally, the acquisition is not expected to affect the company’s near-term capital return plans.
Factors Influencing U.S. Bancorp’s Q1 Performance
NII: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported USB’s NII growth.
Management expects NII on a fully taxable-equivalent basis to be toward the high end of 3-4% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $4.28 billion, indicating a 4.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Loans: Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans was impressive in the first quarter, while real estate loan demand was subdued. As a result, USB’s lending activity is expected to have seen a decent improvement.
Management projects average loan balances to grow 3-4% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $627.3 million for average earning assets indicates a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
Non-Interest Income: The first quarter witnessed solid client activity and elevated market volatility. Major factors that impacted trading business in the quarter included shifting expectations around AI, rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy stance.
Volatility remained high across equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. This is anticipated to have aided USB’s capital markets’ revenue growth in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets revenues is pegged at $428.1 million, indicating a rise of 12.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The first quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business. It was characterized by elevated mortgage rates, hovering at 6-6.5%, and low affordability. While refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows, purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints. As a result, USB’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have been affected in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $144.9 million, which indicates a 16.2% decrease from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for income from card revenues is pegged at $441.6 million, indicating a 14.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment management fees is pegged at $758.5 million, indicating an 11.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $3.01 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. Management expects total non-interest income to increase at the high end of 5-6%, supported by strength in fee-based businesses.
Expenses: Although the company has been implementing expense-management actions, higher costs related to compensation and employee benefits, net occupancy, and ongoing investments in technology-led initiatives are likely to have kept the expense base elevated.
Management expects total non-interest expenses to rise 1% year over year.
Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a modest amount of money for bad loans, given expectations of an additional rate cut this year, as signaled by the Federal Reserve.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $1.61 billion, indicating a decline of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for USB
Per our proven model, the chances of U.S. Bancorp beating estimates this time are low. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%.
Zacks Rank: USB currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $1.14 has been revised upward in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 10.7% from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $7.3 billion, suggesting a rise of 4.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KeyCorp’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 41 cents per share.
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.61% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $2.54 over the past week.
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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Support U.S. Bancorp's Q1 Earnings
Key Takeaways
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. Bancorp benefited from lower expenses and higher non-interest income. Also, a rise in net interest income (NII) and a strong capital position were tailwinds. However, a rise in provision was concerning.
USB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 5.89%, on average.
U.S. Bancorp Price and EPS Surprise
U.S. Bancorp price-eps-surprise | U.S. Bancorp Quote
USB’s Key Developments in Q1
In January 2026, U.S. Bancorp agreed to acquire BTIG, LLC for $1 billion in a stock-and-cash transaction, marking a significant step in the bank’s efforts to expand its capital markets capabilities and deepen relationships with institutional clients. The deal builds on a long-standing referral partnership between the two firms and positions U.S. Bancorp to enhance its product breadth across equity and advisory services.
The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.
The acquisition will allow U.S. Bancorp to add institutional equity sales and trading, equity capital markets, electronic trading, and mergers and acquisitions advisory to its existing offerings. This broader suite of services is expected to accelerate the bank’s capital market momentum and strengthen its ability to serve corporate and institutional clients.
Management expects the deal to have a minimal impact on earnings per share in 2026. However, the transaction will likely result in a 12-basis-point reduction in the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio at closing. Additionally, the acquisition is not expected to affect the company’s near-term capital return plans.
Factors Influencing U.S. Bancorp’s Q1 Performance
NII: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported USB’s NII growth.
Management expects NII on a fully taxable-equivalent basis to be toward the high end of 3-4% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $4.28 billion, indicating a 4.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Loans: Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans was impressive in the first quarter, while real estate loan demand was subdued. As a result, USB’s lending activity is expected to have seen a decent improvement.
Management projects average loan balances to grow 3-4% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $627.3 million for average earning assets indicates a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
Non-Interest Income: The first quarter witnessed solid client activity and elevated market volatility. Major factors that impacted trading business in the quarter included shifting expectations around AI, rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy stance.
Volatility remained high across equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. This is anticipated to have aided USB’s capital markets’ revenue growth in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets revenues is pegged at $428.1 million, indicating a rise of 12.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The first quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business. It was characterized by elevated mortgage rates, hovering at 6-6.5%, and low affordability. While refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows, purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints. As a result, USB’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have been affected in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $144.9 million, which indicates a 16.2% decrease from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for income from card revenues is pegged at $441.6 million, indicating a 14.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment management fees is pegged at $758.5 million, indicating an 11.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $3.01 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 5.8%. Management expects total non-interest income to increase at the high end of 5-6%, supported by strength in fee-based businesses.
Expenses: Although the company has been implementing expense-management actions, higher costs related to compensation and employee benefits, net occupancy, and ongoing investments in technology-led initiatives are likely to have kept the expense base elevated.
Management expects total non-interest expenses to rise 1% year over year.
Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a modest amount of money for bad loans, given expectations of an additional rate cut this year, as signaled by the Federal Reserve.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $1.61 billion, indicating a decline of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for USB
Per our proven model, the chances of U.S. Bancorp beating estimates this time are low. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%.
Zacks Rank: USB currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $1.14 has been revised upward in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 10.7% from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $7.3 billion, suggesting a rise of 4.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +0.03% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KeyCorp’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 41 cents per share.
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.61% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $2.54 over the past week.