Leading insurance provider Progressive (PGR Quick QuotePGR - Free Report) is set to report Q1 results on Wednesday before the opening bell. A Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Progressive missed the earnings mark in two of the past four quarters. But with markets roaring back after a weak start to the year, is the stock a buy prior to the release?

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Analysts are expecting the company to post a profit of $4.77 per share, reflecting a 2.6% improvement versus the same quarter last year. Sales are projected to jump 9.7% to $22.62 billion during the quarter.

Progressive’s business remains steady due to improving retention rates. Yet PGR shares are down roughly 20% over the past year and are underperforming the major indexes. The nation’s second-largest auto insurer posted a -1.6% average earnings surprise over the last four quarters.

Our proprietary Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) indicator conclusively predicts a Q1 earnings beat. Still, investors would be wise to exercise caution ahead of the upcoming announcement as stocks can be volatile surrounding earnings releases.