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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Support State Street's Q1 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
STT is set to report Q1 results, with earnings expected to rise 26% and revenues up 9.7% y/y.
State Street's NII is projected to grow 9.7% y/y, supported by steady rates and loan growth.
STT fee revenues seen up 12.6%, driven by higher AUM/AUC balances and strong FX.
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17, before market open. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have risen year over year.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, STT’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by growth in fee revenues, net interest income (NII) and lower provisions. Also, the company witnessed improvements in the total assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM) balances.
State Street has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 5.4%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for State Street’s first-quarter earnings of $2.57 per share has been revised 1.6% higher over the past seven days. The figure suggests 26% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales of $3.60 billion indicates a 9.7% year-over-year increase.
Key Q1 Factors & Estimates for State Street
NII: In the first quarter, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. This, along with a solid lending scenario (per the Fed’s latest data, overall loan growth was robust in the quarter) and stabilizing funding/deposit costs, is expected to have offered the much-needed support to STT’s NII growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s average interest-earning assets for the first quarter is pegged at $295.4 billion, which implies a 2% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for NII (on a fully taxable-equivalent or FTE basis) of $783 million indicates a 9.7% year-over-year rise.
Fee Revenues: Supported by decent inflows, the company’s AUM and AUC/A balances are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Thus, management fees are likely to have benefited. The consensus estimate for management fees of $654 million implies a 16.4% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for FX trading services income is pegged at $441 million, suggesting a 21.8% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for servicing fees of $1.39 billion indicates a 9.3% improvement.
The consensus estimate for software and processing fees suggests a 1.3% rise to $228 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for securities finance revenues of $125 million implies a 9.6% increase from the year-ago quarter.
Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee revenues of $2.89 billion indicates 12.6% year-over-year growth.
Expenses: Higher information systems and communication expenses, and the company’s strategic buyouts and investments in franchises are expected to have led to an overall rise in total expenses in the first quarter.
Despite the company taking measures to improve operating efficiency, its continued incremental investments in business growth, infrastructure and technology are expected to have led to higher costs in the to-be-reported quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for State Street
Per our model, the likelihood of State Street beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time around is high. This is because the company has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for State Street is +1.63%.
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present and an Earnings ESP of +0.60%.
Quarterly earnings estimates for KEY have been unchanged at 41 cents over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +3.45% and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prosperity Bancshares’ quarterly earnings has been revised lower to $1.41.
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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Support State Street's Q1 Earnings
Key Takeaways
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17, before market open. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have risen year over year.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, STT’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by growth in fee revenues, net interest income (NII) and lower provisions. Also, the company witnessed improvements in the total assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM) balances.
State Street has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 5.4%, on average.
State Street Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
State Street Corporation price-eps-surprise | State Street Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for State Street’s first-quarter earnings of $2.57 per share has been revised 1.6% higher over the past seven days. The figure suggests 26% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales of $3.60 billion indicates a 9.7% year-over-year increase.
Key Q1 Factors & Estimates for State Street
NII: In the first quarter, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. This, along with a solid lending scenario (per the Fed’s latest data, overall loan growth was robust in the quarter) and stabilizing funding/deposit costs, is expected to have offered the much-needed support to STT’s NII growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s average interest-earning assets for the first quarter is pegged at $295.4 billion, which implies a 2% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for NII (on a fully taxable-equivalent or FTE basis) of $783 million indicates a 9.7% year-over-year rise.
Fee Revenues: Supported by decent inflows, the company’s AUM and AUC/A balances are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter. Thus, management fees are likely to have benefited. The consensus estimate for management fees of $654 million implies a 16.4% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for FX trading services income is pegged at $441 million, suggesting a 21.8% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for servicing fees of $1.39 billion indicates a 9.3% improvement.
The consensus estimate for software and processing fees suggests a 1.3% rise to $228 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for securities finance revenues of $125 million implies a 9.6% increase from the year-ago quarter.
Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee revenues of $2.89 billion indicates 12.6% year-over-year growth.
Expenses: Higher information systems and communication expenses, and the company’s strategic buyouts and investments in franchises are expected to have led to an overall rise in total expenses in the first quarter.
Despite the company taking measures to improve operating efficiency, its continued incremental investments in business growth, infrastructure and technology are expected to have led to higher costs in the to-be-reported quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for State Street
Per our model, the likelihood of State Street beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time around is high. This is because the company has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for State Street is +1.63%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Other Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present and an Earnings ESP of +0.60%.
Quarterly earnings estimates for KEY have been unchanged at 41 cents over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +3.45% and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prosperity Bancshares’ quarterly earnings has been revised lower to $1.41.