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Philip Morris Q1 Earnings on Deck: Key Factors You Should Understand
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Key Takeaways
Philip Morris is expected to post Q1 revenues of $9.93B, up 6.7%, and EPS of $1.82, up 7.7%.
PM benefits from smoke-free growth, strong pricing and a favorable higher-margin product mix.
PM faces headwinds from tough comparisons, investment phasing and declining cigarette shipment volumes.
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM - Free Report) is likely to register growth in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $9.93 billion, implying a 6.7% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for quarterly earnings has moved down a penny in the past seven days to $1.82 per share, indicating an increase of 7.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Philip Morris delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.2%.
Philip Morris International Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Philip Morris has continued to benefit from its accelerating shift toward a smoke-free portfolio. The company exited 2025 with strong smoke-free fundamentals, including double-digit shipment growth and expanding consumer adoption across more than 100 markets. This strength, along with ongoing geographic expansion and innovation, is likely to have supported performance in the quarter under review.
The company has been benefiting from a favorable product mix, driven by the rising contribution of higher-margin smoke-free products. This shift, along with continued pricing strength in the combustible segment, is likely to have supported overall performance in the upcoming quarter.
Philip Morris has also been gaining from its strong pricing discipline and ongoing cost efficiencies. Operational leverage from higher smoke-free volumes, combined with productivity initiatives, is likely to have supported profitability. Despite increased commercial investments, these efficiencies are anticipated to have helped sustain earnings performance in the quarter.
However, on its fourth-quarter earnings call, management guided for broadly flat year-over-year organic revenues and operating income, reflecting tough prior-year comparisons, elevated investment phasing in smoke-free products and normalization in the U.S. ZYN business. Additionally, cigarette shipment volumes are likely to have remained under pressure.
Earnings Whispers for PM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Philip Morris this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Philip Morris has an Earnings ESP of -0.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria’s upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.24, implying a 0.8% increase from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for Altria’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.56 billion, which indicates an increase of 0.9% from the prior-year quarter. MO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.5%, on average.
The Hershey Company (HSY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $2.05, which implies a 1.9% decrease year over year.
The consensus estimate for Hershey’s quarterly revenues is pinned at $3.02 billion, which calls for 7.6% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. HSY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of nearly 17.2%, on average.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 29 cents, which implies a 61.1% increase year over year.
The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $748.7 million, which indicates a surge of 127.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 45.3%, on average.
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Philip Morris Q1 Earnings on Deck: Key Factors You Should Understand
Key Takeaways
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM - Free Report) is likely to register growth in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $9.93 billion, implying a 6.7% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for quarterly earnings has moved down a penny in the past seven days to $1.82 per share, indicating an increase of 7.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Philip Morris delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.2%.
Philip Morris International Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Philip Morris International Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Philip Morris International Inc. Quote
Things to Know About PM’s Upcoming Results
Philip Morris has continued to benefit from its accelerating shift toward a smoke-free portfolio. The company exited 2025 with strong smoke-free fundamentals, including double-digit shipment growth and expanding consumer adoption across more than 100 markets. This strength, along with ongoing geographic expansion and innovation, is likely to have supported performance in the quarter under review.
The company has been benefiting from a favorable product mix, driven by the rising contribution of higher-margin smoke-free products. This shift, along with continued pricing strength in the combustible segment, is likely to have supported overall performance in the upcoming quarter.
Philip Morris has also been gaining from its strong pricing discipline and ongoing cost efficiencies. Operational leverage from higher smoke-free volumes, combined with productivity initiatives, is likely to have supported profitability. Despite increased commercial investments, these efficiencies are anticipated to have helped sustain earnings performance in the quarter.
However, on its fourth-quarter earnings call, management guided for broadly flat year-over-year organic revenues and operating income, reflecting tough prior-year comparisons, elevated investment phasing in smoke-free products and normalization in the U.S. ZYN business. Additionally, cigarette shipment volumes are likely to have remained under pressure.
Earnings Whispers for PM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Philip Morris this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Philip Morris has an Earnings ESP of -0.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Altria Group, Inc. (MO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria’s upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.24, implying a 0.8% increase from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for Altria’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.56 billion, which indicates an increase of 0.9% from the prior-year quarter. MO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.5%, on average.
The Hershey Company (HSY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $2.05, which implies a 1.9% decrease year over year.
The consensus estimate for Hershey’s quarterly revenues is pinned at $3.02 billion, which calls for 7.6% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. HSY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of nearly 17.2%, on average.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 29 cents, which implies a 61.1% increase year over year.
The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $748.7 million, which indicates a surge of 127.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 45.3%, on average.